SIO: FANELE - Extratropical

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

SIO: FANELE - Extratropical

#1 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jan 17, 2009 11:35 pm

Image

Image

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 20.6S 42.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 275 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR.
RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY INDICATES A VERY WEAK MID TO
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION, SURROUNDED BY FLARING, DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION. THIS CIRCULATION HAS PERSISTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE
DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED BELOW THE 200 MB RIDGE AXIS, MAKING THE UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#2 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jan 18, 2009 12:56 am

Image

WTXS22 PGTW 180530
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/171851Z JAN 08//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 171900)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 180 NM RADIUS OF 20.8S 42.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 180430Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 20.9S 42.3E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.6S
42.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.9S 42.3E, APPROXIMATELY 295 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SMALL, RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A SYMMETRIC, CDO-LIKE FEATURE. AN 180334Z SSMIS COLOR
IMAGE ALSO INDICATES RAPID CONSOLIDATION WITH A WELL-DEFINED LLCC.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED
OVER THE SYSTEM WITH MUCH IMPROVED DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY
AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
ADDITIONALLY, SST VALUES ARE HIGH, NEAR 30C AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
IS FAVORABLE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25
TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1000 MB. BASED ON THE VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND THE RAPID
CONSOLIDATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 190530Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 15.6S 53.8E.//
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#3 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jan 18, 2009 12:56 am

Image

Looks great.
0 likes   

User avatar
Chacor
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10229
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2006 10:43 pm
Location: Singapore

#4 Postby Chacor » Sun Jan 18, 2009 1:29 am

This is now a Tropical Disturbance (07R).

WTIO30 FMEE 180618

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/7/20082009
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 7

2.A POSITION 2009/01/18 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.0S / 42.5E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : QUASI-STATIONARY

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/01/18 18 UTC: 20.7S/42.0E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H: 2009/01/19 06 UTC: 20.6S/41.6E, MAX WIND=035KT , MODERATE TROP.
STORM.
36H: 2009/01/19 18 UTC: 19.7S/41.4E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP.
STORM.
48H: 2009/01/20 06 UTC: 18.2S/42.6E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP.
STORM.
60H: 2009/01/20 18 UTC: 18.7S/43.8E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2009/01/21 06 UTC: 19.4S/44.3E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI=1.5
SINCE 0000Z, SYSTEM CONFIGURATION HAS PROGRESSIVELY IMPROVE , OBVIOUS
SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION.
LLCC IS LOCATED THANKS TO 0248Z SSMIS ANS 0334Z SSMI.
TODAY , PERIPHERAL BANDS SHOULD CONCERN THE WESTERN MALAGASY COASTLINE
FROM BESALAMPY TO TULEAR.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVOURABLE FOR A REGULAR INTENSIFICATION.
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONNARY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AND THEN RECURVE NORTHEASTWARDS THEN SOUTHEASTWARDS TOWARDS THE MALAGASY
COASTLINES IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM NR6.
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#5 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jan 18, 2009 1:35 am

Image

Not very common.
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#6 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jan 18, 2009 1:40 am

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
P.K.
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 5149
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
Location: Watford, England
Contact:

Re: Mozambique Channel: Tropical Disturbance 07R (95S) - TCFA

#7 Postby P.K. » Sun Jan 18, 2009 7:11 am

Landfall forecast at around 70kts.

WTIO30 FMEE 181206

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/7/20082009
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7

2.A POSITION 2009/01/18 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.5S / 41.9E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 20 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 030 SE: 020 SO: 030 NO: 030

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/01/19 00 UTC: 21.4S/40.7E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP.
STORM.
24H: 2009/01/19 12 UTC: 20.8S/40.4E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM.
36H: 2009/01/20 00 UTC: 20.1S/41.1E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2009/01/20 12 UTC: 19.8S/42.1E, MAX WIND=065KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE.
60H: 2009/01/21 00 UTC: 19.8S/43.2E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE.
72H: 2009/01/21 12 UTC: 20.1S/45.1E, MAX WIND=060KT , OVERLAND.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI=2.5
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IMPROVES WITH A GOOD LOW LEVEL INFLOW
EQUATORWARD AND A STRENGHTENING POLEWARD ONE RELATED TO THE REBUILDING
HIGH PRESSURES IN THE SOUTHWEST. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STRENGHTEN
REGULARELY AND TO DRIFT SLOWLY WESTWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN TO
RECURVE NORTHEASTWARDS AND
EASTWARDS IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM NR6. IT COULD MAKE LANDFALL BEYOND
TAU 48H TO 60H NEAR MORONDAVE AT TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE. A MORE EARLY
LANDFALL WOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION.
0 likes   

User avatar
Chacor
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10229
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2006 10:43 pm
Location: Singapore

#8 Postby Chacor » Sun Jan 18, 2009 7:11 am

Looks like it's intensifying quite fast. Already up to a TD and expected to make landfall at quite a strong intensity.
0 likes   

User avatar
Crostorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2060
Age: 49
Joined: Mon Dec 25, 2006 3:51 pm
Location: Croatia-Europe
Contact:

Re: Mozambique Channel: Tropical Disturbance 07R (95S) - TCFA

#9 Postby Crostorm » Sun Jan 18, 2009 8:42 am

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#10 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jan 18, 2009 10:35 am

Image

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Crostorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2060
Age: 49
Joined: Mon Dec 25, 2006 3:51 pm
Location: Croatia-Europe
Contact:

Re: Mozambique Channel: Tropical Depression 07R (95S) - TCFA

#11 Postby Crostorm » Sun Jan 18, 2009 11:10 am

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
masaji79
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 183
Joined: Sun Dec 02, 2007 12:36 am
Location: Las Vegas, Nevada

Re: Mozambique Channel: Tropical Depression 07R (95S) - TCFA

#12 Postby masaji79 » Sun Jan 18, 2009 12:26 pm

Wow I don't recall the last time I remember seeing twin storms one on each side of Madagascar! :eek:
0 likes   

User avatar
Crostorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2060
Age: 49
Joined: Mon Dec 25, 2006 3:51 pm
Location: Croatia-Europe
Contact:

#13 Postby Crostorm » Sun Jan 18, 2009 2:09 pm

403
WTIO30 FMEE 181826

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/7/20082009
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7

2.A POSITION 2009/01/18 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.6S / 41.8E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 030 SE: 020 SO: 030 NO: 030

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/01/19 06 UTC: 21.6S/40.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H: 2009/01/19 18 UTC: 20.5S/41.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
36H: 2009/01/20 06 UTC: 20.0S/41.7E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2009/01/20 18 UTC: 19.8S/42.8E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2009/01/21 06 UTC: 19.7S/44.3E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
72H: 2009/01/21 18 UTC: 20.0S/46.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, OVERLAND.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0 AND CI=2.5
OVERALL PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED SINCE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WITH A GOOD LOW LEVEL
INFLOW EQUATORWARD AND A STRENGHTENING POLEWARD ONE RELATED TO THE
REBUILDING HIGH PRESSURES IN THE SOUTHWEST. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGHTEN REGULARELY AND TO DRIFT SLOWLY WESTWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS THEN TO RECURVE NORTHE
ASTWARDS AND EASTWARDS IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM NR6. IT COULD MAKE
LANDFALL BEYOND TAU 48H TO 60H NEAR MORONDAVE AT TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE.
A MORE EARLY LANDFALL WOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION.
0 likes   

User avatar
Crostorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2060
Age: 49
Joined: Mon Dec 25, 2006 3:51 pm
Location: Croatia-Europe
Contact:

Re: Mozambique Channel: Tropical Depression 07R (95S) - TCFA

#14 Postby Crostorm » Sun Jan 18, 2009 4:41 pm

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#15 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jan 18, 2009 9:12 pm

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#16 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jan 18, 2009 9:14 pm

Image

SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE) WARNING NR 001
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180521Z JAN 09//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTXS32 PGTW 190300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 21.5S 41.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 21.5S 41.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 20.8S 41.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 20.2S 41.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 20.0S 42.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 20.2S 42.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 21.3S 41.3E.

THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 180521Z
JAN 09 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS22 PGTW 180530 )
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 9 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 191500Z AND 200300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (EIGHT) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

Re: Mozambique Channel: Tropical Depression 07R (09S)

#17 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Jan 19, 2009 12:22 am

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Crostorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2060
Age: 49
Joined: Mon Dec 25, 2006 3:51 pm
Location: Croatia-Europe
Contact:

#18 Postby Crostorm » Mon Jan 19, 2009 1:16 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 19 JAN 2009 Time : 053000 UTC
Lat : 21:08:45 S Lon : 41:17:59 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.8 / 993.4mb/ 41.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.8 3.0 3.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -48.4C Cloud Region Temp : -61.3C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.79 ARC in LT GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.2T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************
0 likes   

User avatar
Crostorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2060
Age: 49
Joined: Mon Dec 25, 2006 3:51 pm
Location: Croatia-Europe
Contact:

#19 Postby Crostorm » Mon Jan 19, 2009 1:46 am

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/7/20082009
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (FANELE)

2.A POSITION 2009/01/19 AT 0600 UTC :
21.5S / 40.7E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : QUASI-STATIONARY 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 30 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 100 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 030

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/01/19 18 UTC: 21.1S/40.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.STORM

24H: 2009/01/20 06 UTC: 20.1S/41.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.STORM.
36H: 2009/01/20 18 UTC: 19.8S/42.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.STORM.
48H: 2009/01/21 06 UTC: 20.2S/42.8E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
60H: 2009/01/21 18 UTC: 21.4S/43.9E OVERLAND.
72H: 2009/01/22 06 UTC: 22.1S/44.9E OVERLAND.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5+

THIS SYSTEM IS NAMED FANELE BY THE MALAGASY WEATHER SERVICE.
FANELE IS BENEATH VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS UNDER THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH A GOOD LOW LEVEL INFLOW EQUATORWARD AND A
STRENGTHENING POLEWARD ONE, RELATED TO THE REBUILDING HIGH PRESSURES IN THE
SOUTHWEST.
SO SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN REGULARLY. HOWEVER A DRY AIR
INTRUSION IN THE 48 HOURS COULD LIMIT THIS INTENSIFICATION.
MOST AF THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS SHOW AN EASTERN TURN TOWARDS THE
WESTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR BUT THEY ARE STILL SOME SPREAD IN BOTH TRACK AND
SPEED. CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON A GENERAL CONSENSUS.
INTERESTED AREAS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITORED THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.=
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#20 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Jan 19, 2009 8:06 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 19 JAN 2009 Time : 120000 UTC
Lat : 20:46:38 S Lon : 41:17:59 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.2 / 988.2mb/ 49.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.2 3.5 3.9

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -56.4C Cloud Region Temp : -57.5C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.92 ARC in LT GRAY

Positioning Method : LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************
0 likes   


Return to “2009”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 24 guests