SPO: HETTIE - Tropical Depression: Discussion

[Crostorm]

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Classic shear.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A10 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 28/2031 UTC 2009 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE HETTIE 08F [995HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0S
177.9W AT 281800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT/EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 07 KNOTS. EXPECT
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE..

LLCC EXPOSED TO ABOUT 75NM NW OF DEEP CONVECTION. OUTFLOW GOOD TO
SOUTH AND RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEAR
PATTERN YIELDING DT=1.5. PT=MET=2.0. FT=2.0 BASED ON PT, THUS
T2.0/3.0/W0.5/24HRS. SYSTEM LIES IN AN AREA OF 50-KNOT SHEAR
DOWNSTREAM OF AN APPROACHING UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. CIMMS INDICATES
DECREASING SHEAR TO SOUTH. HETTIE IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE WESTERLY
UNDER THE LOW-LEVEL E TO NE STEERING FIELD AND SFC RIDGE BUILDING TO
THE SOUTH. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A FORECAST WESTERLY TRACK AND
WEAKENING.

FORECASTS:
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 290600 UTC 22.8S 179.1W MOV W AT 10 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 291800 UTC 23.0S 179.1E MOV W AT 10 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK:
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 300600 UTC 23.2S 177.0E MOV W AT 08 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 301800 UTC 22.9S 174.9E MOV W AT 08 KT WITH 25 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON HETTIE WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 290230 UTC.

[Crostorm]

ROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A11 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 29/0209 UTC 2009 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE HETTIE 08F [995HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6S
177.8W AT 290000 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT EIR/VIS IMAGERY
WITH ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 07 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS WITHIN 240 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. CYCLONE WEAKENING.

LLCC EXPOSED 48NM NW OF DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON
SHEAR PATTERN YIELDING DT=2.0. PT=MET=2.0. FT=2.0 BASED ON PT, THUS
T2.0/3.0/W0.5/24HRS. SYSTEM LIES IN AN AREA OF 50-KNOT SHEAR SOUTH OF
UPPER RIDGE AXIS. HETTIE IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE WESTERLY UNDER THE
LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY STEERING FIELD AND SFC RIDGE BUILDING TO THE
SOUTH. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A FORECAST WESTERLY TRACK AND
WEAKENING.

FORECASTS:
AT 12HRS VALID AT 291200 UTC 23.7S 178.9W MOV WSW AT 10 KT WITH 30KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24HRS VALID AT 300000 UTC 24.4S 179.7E MOV WSW AT 08 KT WITH 30KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK:
AT 36HRS VALID AT 301200 UTC 24.5S 178.2E MOV WSW AT 08 KT WITH 30KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48HRS VALID AT 310000 UTC 22.9S 174.9E MOV WSW AT 08 KT WITH 25KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON HETTIE WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 290830 UTC.

[HURAKAN]

SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (HETTIE) WARNING NR 002
WTPS31 PGTW 290300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (HETTIE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 22.5S 177.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 22.5S 177.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 23.4S 178.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 23.8S 179.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 22.7S 178.0W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (HETTIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390 NM
SOUTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
A FULLY EXPOSED AND WEAKENED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY ONE DEGREE TO THE NORTHWEST OF SIGNIFICANTLY WARMED
CLOUD TOPS/CONVECTION. TWELVE HOUR SATELLITE INTENSITY TRENDS FROM
PGTW, KNES AND FMEE REFLECT A WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 30 TO 35 KNOTS. A 281754Z QUIKSCAT
IMAGE CONFIRMS A 30 TO 35 KNOT (FLAGGED) SYSTEM AS WELL. THE CYCLONE
IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WHILE REMAINING BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
CONTEND WITH EXCESSIVE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO THE WEST MAKING REGENERATION VERY UNLIKELY. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 10 FEET.

[HURAKAN]

[Chacor]

WOPS01 NFFN 290600
GALE WARNING 033 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 29/0654 UTC 2009 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD08F [997PA] [FORMERLY TROPICAL CYCLONE HETTIE] CENTRE WAS
LOCATED NEAR 23.0S 177.9W AT 290600 UTC MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.

IN THE AREA NORTH OF 25S: CLOCKWISE WINDS 35 TO 40 KNOTS IN THE AREA BOUNDED BY
23S 177W 22.5S 173.5W 25.7S 177W 26S 180 23S 178.5E 23S 178.5W 24S 177.5W TO 23S
177W.

AREA OF GALES MOVING WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 032.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A12 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 29/0811 UTC 2009 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD08F [997PA] [FORMERLY TROPICAL CYCLONE HETTIE]
CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0S 177.9W AT 290600 UTC MOVING
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST 06 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR BASED ON GOES/VIS IMAGERY
WITH ANIMATION. IN THE AREA NORTH OF 25S: CLOCKWISE WINDS 35 TO 40
KNOTS IN THE AREA BOUNDED BY 23S 177W 22.5S 173.5W 25.7S 177W 26S 180
23S 178.5E 23S 178.5W 24S 177.5W TO 23S 177W. THIS AREA OF GALES IS
MOVING WITH THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

LLCC IS WELL EXPOSED AND IS DISPLACED ABOUT 56 NAUTICAL MILES AWAY
FROM THE MAIN CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST. SYSTEM LIES IN AN AREA OF
50-KNOT SHEAR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING 250HPA LONG WAVE TROUGH. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE WESTERLY UNDER THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY
STEERING FIELD AND SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH. GLOBAL MODELS
AGREE ON A WESTERLY TRACK AND FURTHER WEAKENING.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON 08F.