ABPW10 PGTW 302000
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/302000Z-310600ZJAN2009//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.2S 146.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 60 NM NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED, PRIMARILY,
OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 301445Z TMI 37 GHZ IMAGE AS WELL AS
RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE CAIRNS RADAR SHOW A DEFINED LLCC WITH
FORMATIVE BANDING, ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM HOLMES REEF, BOUGAINVILLE REEF AND GREEN ISLAND
SUPPORT A 20-25 KNOT SYSTEM WITH SLP AS LOW AS 998MB AND 24-HOUR SLP
FALLS OF 3-4 MB. REPORTS FROM GREEN ISLAND INDICATE SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 35-40 KNOTS, ENHANCED BY TOPOGRAPHY AND THE STRONG GRADIENT WITH
A HIGH TO THE SOUTH. OVERALL, THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH THE LLCC LOCATED UNDER WEAK VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS FAIR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED FAIR AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1).
FORECAST TEAM: CHARLIE//
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