WTXS31 PGTW 071500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GAEL) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
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WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 20.5S 51.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5S 51.8E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 21.9S 52.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 10 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 23.8S 53.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 12 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 26.0S 54.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 14 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 28.4S 55.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
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REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 20.8S 51.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (GAEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM WEST
OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06
HOURS. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A RESULTANT LOSS OF DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAVE WEAKENED TC
13S TO AN ESTIMATED INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS. A 32 NM EYE WAS
APPARENT IN A 071130Z MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGE DESPITE THE
REDUCED CONVECTION. TC 13S IS TRACKING POLEWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. THE CYCLONE WILL ACCELERATE SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THIS WEAKNESS AND TOWARD THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH
CURRENTLY ANALYZED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, PASSAGE OVER COOLER WATER, THE INTRODUCTION OF
A MIDLATITUDE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST
WILL INDUCE THE FIRST STAGE OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 48.
THESE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS WILL ALSO CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN,
ALTHOUGH STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW TC 13S TO REMAIN VERY INTENSE THROUGHOUT ITS
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z
IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z AND 081500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 14S (FREDDY) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
