NW Australia: FREDDY - Tropical Cyclone : Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Crostorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2058
Age: 44
Joined: Mon Dec 25, 2006 3:51 pm
Location: Croatia-Europe
Contact:

#21 Postby Crostorm » Fri Feb 06, 2009 5:29 am

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0712 UTC 06/02/2009
Name: Tropical Low
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 16.0S
Longitude: 113.9E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: west northwest [293 deg]
Speed of Movement: 8 knots [14 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 993 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: N/A
Dvorak Intensity Code: D2.5/2.5/D1.0/12HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 998 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 90 nm [165 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 06/1800: 15.7S 112.8E: 060 [110]: 035 [065]: 990
+24: 07/0600: 15.4S 111.9E: 090 [165]: 040 [075]: 987
+36: 07/1800: 15.4S 110.9E: 120 [225]: 045 [085]: 984
+48: 08/0600: 15.7S 109.4E: 155 [285]: 045 [085]: 985
+60: 08/1800: 16.4S 107.5E: 200 [375]: 045 [085]: 986
+72: 09/0600: 17.0S 105.4E: 250 [465]: 045 [085]: 986
REMARKS:
System organisation has improved significantly over the last 24 hours despite
ongoing shear. A shear pattern analysis is appropriate and will give high DTs
but the analysis history and pattern matching suggest that the FT constraint to
2.5 is most appropriate. The -23Z quikscat pass also indicated a circulation
that was still relatively weak at the surface and although microwave imagery
indicates low level circulation has become better organised in the last 6 hours
a CI higher than 2.5 would be an extraordinary intensification.

The system is expected to continue to struggle against shear so a slow rate of
development with intensity capped below hurricane force throughout its lifetime
is forecast. Development to TC intensity [T3.0 with 10-min winds] is most likely
after the diurnal maximum in the early hours of Saturday.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 06/1300 UTC by Perth TCWC.
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 31
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#22 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Feb 06, 2009 10:29 am

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1420 UTC 06/02/2009
Name: Tropical Low
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 15.8S
Longitude: 113.5E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: west northwest [290 deg]
Speed of Movement: 7 knots [13 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 993 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: N/A
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 998 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 90 nm [165 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 07/0000: 15.5S 112.4E: 060 [110]: 040 [075]: 987
+24: 07/1200: 15.5S 111.3E: 090 [165]: 045 [085]: 984
+36: 08/0000: 15.5S 110.0E: 125 [230]: 045 [085]: 984
+48: 08/1200: 16.2S 108.6E: 155 [285]: 045 [085]: 985
+60: 09/0000: 16.8S 106.4E: 205 [375]: 045 [085]: 986
+72: 09/1200: 17.5S 104.2E: 250 [465]: 040 [075]: 988
REMARKS:
Resent due to incorrect values of uncertainty in forecast track

System organisation has improved significantly over the last 24 hours despite
ongoing shear. A shear pattern analysis is appropriate and will give high DTs
but the analysis history and pattern matching suggest that the FT constraint to
2.5 is most appropriate.

Model guidance is consistent with a general westward track over the next 48 hrs
due to a persistent mid level ridge to the south.

The system is expected to continue to struggle against shear so a slow rate of
development with intensity capped below hurricane force throughout its lifetime
is forecast. Development to TC intensity [T3.0] is most likely after the diurnal
maximum in the early hours of Saturday.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 06/1900 UTC by Perth TCWC.
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 31
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#23 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Feb 06, 2009 10:30 am

Image

WTXS32 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 16.0S 113.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 113.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 15.9S 111.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 15.9S 110.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 16.0S 109.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 16.2S 107.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 112.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FOURTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 375 NM
NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION DESPITE MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE
MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION IS LOCATED ON THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF
THE SYSTEM, ALTHOUGH A 061212Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS AN
IMPROVING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE LLCC IS LOCATED
WITHIN A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW,
WARM SST, AND DEEP MOISTURE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON MULTI-
AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS AND A 060957Z QSCAT PASS
DEPICTING UNFLAGGED WINDS OF 30 KNOTS NEAR THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD AND WILL INTENSIFY SLOWLY
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE COMPETING INFLUENCES OF
DETRIMENTAL SHEAR AND OTHERWISE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. THIS FORECAST
FAVORS THE CONSENSUS OF DYNAMIC AIDS WHICH ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 060121Z FEB
09 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 060130). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
070300Z AND 071500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GAEL) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW 061500) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
0 likes   

User avatar
Crostorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2058
Age: 44
Joined: Mon Dec 25, 2006 3:51 pm
Location: Croatia-Europe
Contact:

#24 Postby Crostorm » Fri Feb 06, 2009 2:11 pm

IDW24000
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 3:19 am WDT on Saturday 7 February 2009
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

Tropical Cyclone Freddy (Category 1) was located at 3 am WDT near 15.6S 113.3E,
that is 680 km north northwest of Karratha and 710 km north of Exmouth and
moving west northwest at 9 kilometres per hour.
Tropical Cyclone Freddy is located well off the northern WA coast and is
expected to continue to move westwards away from the WA mainland.
Gales are not expected to affect the WA coast.
The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 10 am WDT.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 31
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#25 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Feb 06, 2009 3:34 pm

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Crostorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2058
Age: 44
Joined: Mon Dec 25, 2006 3:51 pm
Location: Croatia-Europe
Contact:

Re: NW Australia: FREDDY - Tropical Cyclone : Discussion

#26 Postby Crostorm » Fri Feb 06, 2009 8:02 pm

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 31
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#27 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Feb 06, 2009 8:43 pm

Image

35 knots.
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 27389
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#28 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Feb 06, 2009 11:07 pm

That looks quite a bit stronger than 35 kt.
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 31
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#29 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Feb 06, 2009 11:09 pm

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0130 UTC 07/02/2009
Name: Tropical Cyclone Freddy
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 16.0S
Longitude: 113.2E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: west northwest [289 deg]
Speed of Movement: 3 knots [6 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots [75 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Central Pressure: 987 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 45 nm [85 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 45 nm [85 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [37 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 998 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 90 nm [165 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 07/1200: 16.0S 112.3E: 060 [110]: 045 [085]: 984
+24: 08/0000: 16.2S 110.9E: 090 [165]: 050 [095]: 982
+36: 08/1200: 16.7S 109.1E: 125 [230]: 045 [085]: 985
+48: 09/0000: 17.2S 106.8E: 155 [285]: 045 [085]: 986
+60: 09/1200: 17.9S 104.6E: 205 [375]: 040 [075]: 988
+72: 10/0000: 18.5S 102.3E: 250 [465]: 035 [065]: 992
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Freddy has formed well to the north of the Western Australian
mainland.

Latest fix based on visible and microwave satellite data. The cyclone is still
affected by moderate vertical wind shear but has continued to intensify slowly
during the past 12 hours. Dvorak DT 3.0 based on shear pattern, with the LLCC
under deep cold cloud, MET and FT 3.0.

Forecast movement is toward the west for the next 48 hours under the influence
of a mid-level ridge to the south. In the longer term Freddy is likely to take a
more southwest track as a weakness develops in the ridge with a mid level trough
approaching from the west. Freddy is expected to continue intensifying slowly
for around 24 hours, then begin to weaken as the cyclone moves over cooler sea
surface temperatures.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 07/0700 UTC by Darwin TCWC.
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 31
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#30 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Feb 06, 2009 11:10 pm

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE DARWIN
AT 0053UTC 7 FEBRUARY 2009

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0000 UTC Tropical Cyclone Freddy was centred within 30 nautical miles of
latitude sixteen decimal zero south (16.0S)
longitude one hundred and thirteen decimal two east (113.2E)
Recent movement : west northwest at 3 knots
Maximum winds : 40 knots
Central pressure: 987 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 45 nautical miles of the centre in eastern quadrants extending to within
120 nautical miles of the centre in western quadrants.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 40 knots near the centre increasing to 50 knots by 0000 UTC 08
February.
Clockwise winds above 34 knots within 45 nautical miles of the centre in
eastern quadrants extending to within 120 nautical miles of the centre in
western quadrants. Very rough seas and moderate swell.
Forecast positions
At 1200 UTC 07 February: Within 60 nautical miles of 16.0 south 112.3 east
Central pressure 984 hPa.
Winds to 45 knots near centre.
At 0000 UTC 08 February: Within 90 nautical miles of 16.2 south 110.9 east
Central pressure 982 hPa.
Winds to 50 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite to SAC 1241 through Land Earth Station Perth 312.

Next warning will be issued by 0700 UTC 07 February 2009.

WEATHER DARWIN
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 31
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#31 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Feb 06, 2009 11:57 pm

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 31
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

Re: NW Australia: FREDDY - Tropical Cyclone : Discussion

#32 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Feb 07, 2009 12:26 am

Image

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 07 FEB 2009 Time : 043000 UTC
Lat : 16:11:17 S Lon : 112:00:39 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.3 / 989.2mb/ 51.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.1 2.9 2.9

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.4mb

Center Temp : -68.2C Cloud Region Temp : -60.9C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
0 likes   

User avatar
Crostorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2058
Age: 44
Joined: Mon Dec 25, 2006 3:51 pm
Location: Croatia-Europe
Contact:

Re: NW Australia: FREDDY - Tropical Cyclone : Discussion

#33 Postby Crostorm » Sat Feb 07, 2009 7:41 am

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 31
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#34 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Feb 07, 2009 8:07 am

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1300 UTC 07/02/2009
Name: Tropical Cyclone Freddy
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 16.1S
Longitude: 112.4E
Location Accuracy: within 50 nm [95 km]
Movement Towards: west [276 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [9 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots [75 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Central Pressure: 988 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 45 nm [85 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 45 nm [85 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [37 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 998 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm [335 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 08/0000: 16.2S 110.8E: 080 [150]: 050 [095]: 982
+24: 08/1200: 16.5S 109.0E: 110 [205]: 050 [095]: 982
+36: 09/0000: 17.0S 106.7E: 140 [265]: 045 [085]: 986
+48: 09/1200: 17.6S 104.3E: 175 [325]: 040 [075]: 989
+60: 10/0000: 17.9S 102.1E: 220 [410]: 035 [065]: 991
+72: 10/1200: 18.3S 100.2E: 270 [500]: 035 [065]: 991
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Freddy has formed well to the north of the Western Australian
mainland.

Latest fix based on extrapolation from last visible imagery and 0950 UTC AMSUB
microwave imagery [after correction for navigation error]. Position is
uncertain, with very recent microwave imagery suggesting centre may be even
further west than analysed. System remains sheared, but is becoming better
organized with low level centre now within 0.5 degrees of edge of convection,
giving DT/MET/PT 3.0.

Freddy is expected to intensify in the more diurnally favourable conditions
overnight, but development will be slow with vertical shear remaining a
disruptive influence. The system should continue to move to the west during the
next 24 hours under the influence of a mid-level ridge to the south. In the
longer term Freddy is likely to take a more southwest track as a weakness
develops in the ridge with a mid level trough approaching from the west. In the
longer term, Freddy should begin to weaken as the cyclone moves over cooler sea
surface temperatures.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 07/1900 UTC by Darwin TCWC.
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 31
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

Re: NW Australia: FREDDY - Tropical Cyclone : Discussion

#35 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Feb 07, 2009 8:13 am

Image

SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FREDDY) WARNING NR 002A CORRECTED//
WTXS32 PGTW 070300 COR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FREDDY) WARNING NR 002A CORRECTED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 16.2S 112.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 112.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 16.2S 111.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 16.3S 110.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 16.6S 108.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 17.2S 105.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 112.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FREDDY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 375 NM
NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS DEEPENING CONVECTION AROUND AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE SYSTEM HAS REMAINED A MARGINAL TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND APRF RANGING
FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST TO WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD WHILE INTENSIFYING VERY LITTLE DUE TO SUSTAINED
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
070000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z AND 080300Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GAEL) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: UPDATED MANOP HEADER
(WTXS32).
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 31
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

Re: NW Australia: FREDDY - Tropical Cyclone : Discussion

#36 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Feb 07, 2009 10:23 am

Image

Image

WTXS32 PGTW 071500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FREDDY) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 16.2S 112.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 112.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 16.3S 110.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 16.6S 108.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 17.0S 106.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 17.4S 104.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 111.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FREDDY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 375 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. PERSISTENT EASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR IS DISPLACING THE DEEPEST CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
TC 14S TO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). REANALYSIS OF MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY
NECESSITATED AN SLIGHT EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE 00Z POSITION
REPORTED IN THE PREVIOUS WARNING, INDICATING A SLOWER FORWARD
TRACK SPEED. HOWEVER, THE CYCLONE HAS SINCE BEGUN ACCELERATING
WESTWARD, CONSISTENT WITH PRIOR FORECAST REASONING. TC 14S IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH. THE
CYCLONE WILL INTENSIFY SLOWLY AS EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
OFFSETS THE FAVORABLE INFLUENCES OF PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER AND
STRONG WESTWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. THE FORECAST TRACK IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE, WHICH SHOWS VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG ALL MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
071200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z AND 081500Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GAEL) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 31
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#37 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Feb 07, 2009 4:40 pm

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1908 UTC 07/02/2009
Name: Tropical Cyclone Freddy
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 16.3S
Longitude: 111.5E
Location Accuracy: within 50 nm [95 km]
Movement Towards: west [263 deg]
Speed of Movement: 6 knots [11 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots [75 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Central Pressure: 988 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [37 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm [335 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 08/0600: 16.4S 109.6E: 080 [150]: 045 [085]: 987
+24: 08/1800: 16.9S 107.7E: 110 [205]: 050 [095]: 984
+36: 09/0600: 17.6S 105.4E: 140 [265]: 045 [085]: 988
+48: 09/1800: 18.0S 103.1E: 175 [325]: 040 [075]: 990
+60: 10/0600: 18.6S 101.0E: 220 [410]: 040 [075]: 990
+72: 10/1800: 19.1S 99.2E: 270 [500]: 035 [065]: 993
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Freddy has formed well to the north of the Western Australian
mainland.

Latest fix based on extrapolation from the 1414 UTC AMSUB microwave imagery.
System remains sheared, but is becoming better organized with low level centre
now within 0.5 degrees of edge of convection, giving DT/MET/PT 3.0.

Freddy's convective structure has improved in the last 24hrs, but development
will be slow with vertical shear remaining a disruptive influence. The system
should continue to move to the west during the next 24 hours under the influence
of a mid-level ridge to the south. In the longer term Freddy is likely to take a
more southwest track as a weakness develops in the ridge with a mid level trough
approaching from the west. In the longer term, Freddy should begin to weaken as
the cyclone moves over cooler sea surface temperatures.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 08/0100 UTC by Darwin TCWC.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 31
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#38 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Feb 07, 2009 5:19 pm

07/2030 UTC 16.3S 110.5E T3.0/3.0 FREDDY -- Southeast Indian

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 31
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

Re: NW Australia: FREDDY - Tropical Cyclone : Discussion

#39 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Feb 07, 2009 5:23 pm

Image

SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FREDDY) WARNING NR 004
WTXS32 PGTW 072100
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FREDDY) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 16.0S 111.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 111.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 16.2S 109.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 16.6S 107.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 17.2S 105.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 17.9S 103.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 110.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FREDDY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS MANAGED TO
INTENSIFY DESPITE MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WITH ALL
REPORTING FIX AGENCIES LOGGING A FINAL-T OF 3.0 OR 45 KNOTS. THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS OBSCURED BENEATH A
DENSE CIRRUS CANOPY MAKING INITIAL POSITIONING DIFFICULT.
HOWEVER, 6-HOUR PERSISTENCE, POSITION FIXES FROM PGTW AND APRF,
AND A 071414Z AMSUB MICROWAVE IMAGE SUGGEST WITH A FAIR DEGREE
OF CERTAINTY THAT THE LLCC IS BENEATH THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF
THE SHEARED CONVECTION. FREDDY IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS IN FAVORABLE WATERS AND UNDER INCREASED POLEWARD
AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, THOUGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL DAMPEN
SUBSTANTIAL INTENSIFICATION. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARD
TOWARDS A BREAK IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE, IT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP BELOW THE 26 DEGREE CELSIUS THRESHOLD AROUND TAU 36, AND
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO SLACKEN. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
080900Z AND 082100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GAEL)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 31
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#40 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Feb 07, 2009 9:20 pm

Image
0 likes   


Return to “2009”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 37 guests