SWPAC: INNIS - former Cyclone: Discussion

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Chacor
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#21 Postby Chacor » Tue Feb 17, 2009 8:56 pm

And Wellington kills it.

GALE WARNING 349
This affects ocean area: SUBTROPIC
AT 180000UTC

Over waters east of 160E and south of 25S.
Low 996hPa, former Cyclone INNIS, near 26S 161E moving south 20kt.
1. Within 180 miles of low in southeast semicircle: Clockwise 35kt.
2. Within 60 miles of low in northwest semicircle: Clockwise 35kt.
Gale areas moving with low.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 344.

Issued at 00:35:32Z on 18-Feb-2009
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HURAKAN
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Re: SWPAC: INNIS - former Cyclone: Discussion

#22 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Feb 18, 2009 12:24 am

Image

Image

WTPS31 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (INNIS) WARNING NR 003 RELOCATED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (INNIS) WARNING NR 003 RELOCATED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 27.2S 160.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 27.2S 160.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 31.4S 159.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 35.8S 160.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 28.2S 160.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (INNIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 395 NM
EAST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 21
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME SHEARED
FROM THE MAJORITY OF DEEP CONVECTION BY OVER 90 NM. OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS TC 15P HAS INCREASED TRACK SPEED AND HAS MOVED INTO A REGION
OF UNFAVORABLE SST. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING TO THE
NORTHEAST OVER EASTERN AUSTRALIA AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EAST OF TC
15P HAS LEAD TO INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY,
INCREASED GRADIENT FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES HAS LED TO AN
ACCELERATION OF THE TRACK SPEED. THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS
IMPINGED UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW HALTING ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. BASED
ON THE INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DECREASED SST, INCREASED
TRACK SPEED, AND THE DECREASE IN UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED, WITH ADDITIONAL
WEAKENING AS TC 15P CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO EVEN LESS FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 180000Z IS 11 FEET.//
NNNN
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HURAKAN
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#23 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Feb 18, 2009 11:21 am

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