Coral Sea: HAMISH - Tropical Cyclone

[Crostorm]

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.7S 147.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 285 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. RECENT
METSAT IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION WITH FORMATIVE BANDING
DEVELOPING NEAR AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
A 041216ZZ ASCAT PASS SHOWS UNFLAGGED 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE
CENTER OF THIS DISTURBANCE. POSITION CONFIDENCE IS GOOD, AND IS
SUPPORTED BY A 041541Z AMSRE 37V IMAGE. THE LLCC LIES IN AN AREA OF
UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO THE
CONSOLIDATING LLCC AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.

[wyq614]

This system is supported by ECWMF model.

[HURAKAN]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: This message is issued daily for the information of interested parties.
Media are NOT required to broadcast this message.

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
for the Coral Sea West of Longitude 160 East
Issued at 2:30pm on Wednesday the 4th of March 2009

A weak low is located over the north-west Coral Sea. The chance of this system
developing into a tropical cyclone during the next three days is low.

Tropical Cyclone outlooks issued by Brisbane can be accessed through the
Bureau's Home Page http://www.bom.gov.au.

Please note that the Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre issues Tropical Cyclone
Outlooks that cover the Gulf of Carpentaria. Refer to the Northern Region and
Gulf 3 day outlook at http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/tc-outlooks.shtml.

[Grifforzer]

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
FORECAST NORTHERN TERRITORY AREA BETWEEN 125E-142E
2:15 pm CST March 4 2009
====================================================

A weak TROPICAL LOW [1009 hPa] is situated over the northern tip of Cape York Peninsula. At 12pm it was near 11S 143E and moving slowly.

The Low is expected to move southwards to be near the eastern coast of Cape York Peninsula late on the weekend. Over the next couple of days, the low may move into the northeastern Gulf of Carpentaria, however, if it does so it is expected to remain near the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
==================================
Thursday: Low
Friday: Low
Saturday: Low

Please also refer to the TC Outlook for the Coral Sea for further information on this system.

---
okay so is this the same low then?

[HURAKAN]

[wyq614]

Well, If my memory is right, the pre-Cyclone Ellie's chance of development was also low.

So, we have to watch out...

[HURAKAN]

Link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/mtsatfloat1.html

[HURAKAN]

04/2030 UTC 12.8S 148.2E T1.5/1.5 98P -- Southwest Pacific

[HURAKAN]

[Grifforzer]

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
Forecast for the Coral Sea West 160E
2:15pm March 5 2009
===================================

A low pressure system is located over the north-west Coral Sea about 360km north-east of Cooktown. The low is expected to move slowly southwards during the next 24 to 48 hours. The chance of this system developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 24 to 48 hours is high.

[HurricaneRobert]

After a season of duds, this one actually looks pretty fearsome.

[Crostorm]

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.7S
147.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9S 147.4E, APPROXIMATELY 260 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE EAST QUADRANT. A 042115Z
SSMI/S IMAGE AND A 042321Z ASCAT IMAGE DEPICT A RELATIVELY WEAK AND
ELONGATED LLCC. HOWEVER, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A
DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SYSTEM WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. OVERALL, THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM SST AND
DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.

[Grifforzer]

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number ONE
TROPICAL LOW (17U)
4:50 PM EST March 5 2009
==============================

At 4:00 PM EST, Tropical Low [1000 hPa] located at 12.9S 147.9E or 390 kms east of Lockhart River and 470 kms north northeast of Cairns has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving southwest at 4 knots.

The Tropical Low is expected to move south southwest while deepening, and may develop into a Tropical Cyclone on Friday.

Gales are not expected to affect coastal or island communities within 24 hours, however gales may develop about coastal and island communities later.

Tropical Cyclone Watch
======================
A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for coastal and island communities from Cape Melville to Bowen.

TC Technical Bulletin Information (0600 UTC)
==============================

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 13.7S 146.7E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 14.8S 146.5E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 17.1S 147.5E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS: 19.5S 148.9E - 60 knots (CAT 2)

Remarks
-------
Deep convection wraps 0.55 on log10 spiral. DT is 2.5. MET supports. System is expected to continue to intensify under weak shear.

[Grifforzer]

WTPS21 PGTW
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
09:30 AM UTC March 5 2009
==================================

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.9S 147.1E TO 17.4S 147.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AND RADAR DATA AT 050900Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION CEN-
TER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.1S 147.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.

2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.9S
147.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.1S 147.2E, APPROXIMATELY 245 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT. A 050719Z SSMI/S IMAGE SHOWS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LLCC
WITH MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
SYSTEM WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. OVERALL, THE ENVIRONMENT IS
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, WARM SST AND DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.

[Chacor]

AXAU21 ABRF 050719
IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0719 UTC 05/03/2009
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 17U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 12.9S
Longitude: 147.1E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [37 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [250 deg]
Speed of Movement: 4 knots [7 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 90 nm [165 km]
Storm Depth: Medium
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 05/1800: 13.7S 146.7E: 060 [110]: 035 [065]: 996
+24: 06/0600: 14.8S 146.5E: 080 [145]: 045 [085]: 991
+36: 06/1800: 16.0S 147.1E: 115 [215]: 055 [100]: 984
+48: 07/0600: 17.1S 147.5E: 125 [230]: 060 [110]: 979
+60: 07/1800: 18.2S 148.2E: 155 [285]: 060 [110]: 976
+72: 08/0600: 19.5S 148.9E: 195 [365]: 060 [110]: 977
REMARKS:
Deep convection wraps 0.55 on log10 spiral. DT is 2.5. MET supports. System is
expected to continue to intensify under weak shear.


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 05/1300 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

TC Hamish

[Grifforzer]

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number TWO
TROPICAL CYCLONE HAMISH, CAT 1 (17U)
10:50 PM EST March 5 2009
==============================

At 10:00 PM EST, Tropical Cyclone Hamish, Category One [997 hPa] located at 13.4S 147.0E or 380 kms east of Lockhart River and 415 kms north northeast of Cairns has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 4 knots.

Tropical Cyclone Hamish is expected to continue to move south roughly parallel to the north tropical coast while deepening. Damaging wind gusts are not expected to affect coastal or island communities within 24 hours, however they may develop within 24 to 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Watch
======================
A Cyclone WATCH remains current for coastal and island communities from Cape Melville to Bowen.

TC Technical Bulletin Information (1200 PM UTC)
=================

Gale Force Winds
--------------
90 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
------------------
12 HRS: 14.3S 146.5E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 15.7S 147.0E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 17.8S 147.9E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS: 20.5S 149.6E - 60 knots (CAT 2)

Remarks
----
Descending QuikScat pass shows 35 to 40 knot winds in three quadrants. Deep convection wraps 0.60 on log10 spiral. DT is 3.0. MET supports. System is expected to continue to intensify under weak shear.

[HURAKAN]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 2
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 10:57pm on Thursday the 5th of March 2009

A Cyclone WATCH remains current for coastal and island communities from Cape
Melville to Bowen.

Tropical Cyclone Hamish, a category 1 cyclone, has formed in the northwestern
Coral Sea and at 10:00 pm EST was estimated to be 380 kilometres east of
Lockhart River and 415 kilometres north northeast of Cairns, moving south
southwest at 8 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Hamish is expected to continue to move south roughly parallel
to the north tropical coast while deepening. Damaging wind gusts are not
expected to affect coastal or island communities within 24 hours, however they
may develop within 24 to 48 hours.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Hamish at 10:00 pm EST:
.Centre located near...... 13.4 degrees South 147.0 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 46 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southwest at 8 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 95 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 997 hectoPascals

People between Cape Melville and Bowen should consider what action they will
need to take if the cyclone threat increases. If you are unsure about the
actions to be taken, information is available from your local government or
local State Emergency Service.

The next advice will be issued by 5:00 am EST Friday 06 March.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at http://www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State
Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

[HURAKAN]