SIO: ILSA - ex-Tropical Cyclone (22S)
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HurricaneRobert
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AXAU01 APRF 181829
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1828 UTC 18/03/2009
Name: Tropical Cyclone Ilsa
Identifier: 18U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 14.0S
Longitude: 109.4E
Location Accuracy: within 25 nm [46 km]
Movement Towards: west [260 deg]
Speed of Movement: 11 knots [21 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 60 knots [110 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 85 knots [155 km/h]
Central Pressure: 984 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 20 nm [37 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 20 nm [37 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 20 nm [37 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 20 nm [37 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm [19 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 80 nm [150 km]
Storm Depth: Medium
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 19/0600: 14.7S 107.4E: 050 [095]: 070 [130]: 967
+24: 19/1800: 15.2S 105.8E: 080 [150]: 090 [165]: 957
+36: 20/0600: 15.5S 104.4E: 110 [210]: 090 [165]: 950
+48: 20/1800: 15.6S 103.0E: 145 [270]: 090 [165]: 947
+60: 21/0600: 15.7S 101.3E: 190 [355]: 085 [155]: 962
+72: 21/1800: 15.8S 99.5E: 240 [445]: 080 [150]: 967
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Ilsa has intensified rapidly in the past 24 hours with
microwave imagery showing strong banding towards a tight Low Level Circulation
Centre. IR imagery maintains very deep convection over the centre and strong
banding to the west of the centre.
Dvorak: DT=4.0 based on time averaged curved band wrap of 1.0+ [3.5] with a 0.5
addition because of the cold band.[note: Eye pattern will give 5.0
[White/White]]. MET/PAT agree, hence FT/CI=4.0.
Intensification is being assisted by strong upper level outflow channels and
warm SSTs over 29C. Shear over the circulation is likely to remain less than 20
knots in the next 48 hours and further intensification is favoured.
The intensity forecast is reasonably uncertain as being such a small
circulation, the system is susceptible to small environmental changes and is
likely to undergo fluctuations in intensity in the 72 hour forecast period.
Following a general intensification phase weakening may occur towards the end of
this forecast period as it moves over waters less than 28C west of 100E.
There is strong agreement on a general west to west southwest track under the
influence of a mid-level ridge to the south, although the system is likely to
slow to 6-8 knots in the 24-48 hour period as this ridge weakens.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 19/0100 UTC by Perth TCWC.
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1828 UTC 18/03/2009
Name: Tropical Cyclone Ilsa
Identifier: 18U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 14.0S
Longitude: 109.4E
Location Accuracy: within 25 nm [46 km]
Movement Towards: west [260 deg]
Speed of Movement: 11 knots [21 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 60 knots [110 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 85 knots [155 km/h]
Central Pressure: 984 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 20 nm [37 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 20 nm [37 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 20 nm [37 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 20 nm [37 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm [19 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 80 nm [150 km]
Storm Depth: Medium
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 19/0600: 14.7S 107.4E: 050 [095]: 070 [130]: 967
+24: 19/1800: 15.2S 105.8E: 080 [150]: 090 [165]: 957
+36: 20/0600: 15.5S 104.4E: 110 [210]: 090 [165]: 950
+48: 20/1800: 15.6S 103.0E: 145 [270]: 090 [165]: 947
+60: 21/0600: 15.7S 101.3E: 190 [355]: 085 [155]: 962
+72: 21/1800: 15.8S 99.5E: 240 [445]: 080 [150]: 967
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Ilsa has intensified rapidly in the past 24 hours with
microwave imagery showing strong banding towards a tight Low Level Circulation
Centre. IR imagery maintains very deep convection over the centre and strong
banding to the west of the centre.
Dvorak: DT=4.0 based on time averaged curved band wrap of 1.0+ [3.5] with a 0.5
addition because of the cold band.[note: Eye pattern will give 5.0
[White/White]]. MET/PAT agree, hence FT/CI=4.0.
Intensification is being assisted by strong upper level outflow channels and
warm SSTs over 29C. Shear over the circulation is likely to remain less than 20
knots in the next 48 hours and further intensification is favoured.
The intensity forecast is reasonably uncertain as being such a small
circulation, the system is susceptible to small environmental changes and is
likely to undergo fluctuations in intensity in the 72 hour forecast period.
Following a general intensification phase weakening may occur towards the end of
this forecast period as it moves over waters less than 28C west of 100E.
There is strong agreement on a general west to west southwest track under the
influence of a mid-level ridge to the south, although the system is likely to
slow to 6-8 knots in the 24-48 hour period as this ridge weakens.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 19/0100 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 1827UTC 18 MARCH 2009
HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING
Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.
SITUATION
At 1800 UTC Tropical Cyclone Ilsa was centred within 25 nautical miles of
latitude fourteen decimal zero south (14.0S)
longitude one hundred and nine decimal four east (109.4E)
Recent movement : west at 11 knots
Maximum winds : 60 knots
Central pressure: 984 hPa
AREA AFFECTED
Within 90 nautical miles of the centre.
FORECAST
Maximum winds to 60 knots near the centre increasing to 90 knots by 1800 UTC 19
March.
Winds above 64 knots within 20 nautical miles of centre after 0000 UTC 19 March
with high seas and heavy swell.
Winds above 48 knots within 30 nautical miles of centre with very rough seas
and moderate swell.
Winds above 34 knots within 90 nautical miles of centre with rough seas and
moderate swell
Forecast positions
At 0600 UTC 19 March: Within 50 nautical miles of 14.7 south 107.4 east
Central pressure 967 hPa.
Winds to 70 knots.
At 1800 UTC 19 March: Within 80 nautical miles of 15.2 south 105.8 east
Central pressure 957 hPa.
Winds to 90 knots.
REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite to SAC 1241 through Land Earth Station Perth 312.
Next warning will be issued by 0100 UTC 19 March 2009.
WEATHER PERTH
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 1827UTC 18 MARCH 2009
HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING
Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.
SITUATION
At 1800 UTC Tropical Cyclone Ilsa was centred within 25 nautical miles of
latitude fourteen decimal zero south (14.0S)
longitude one hundred and nine decimal four east (109.4E)
Recent movement : west at 11 knots
Maximum winds : 60 knots
Central pressure: 984 hPa
AREA AFFECTED
Within 90 nautical miles of the centre.
FORECAST
Maximum winds to 60 knots near the centre increasing to 90 knots by 1800 UTC 19
March.
Winds above 64 knots within 20 nautical miles of centre after 0000 UTC 19 March
with high seas and heavy swell.
Winds above 48 knots within 30 nautical miles of centre with very rough seas
and moderate swell.
Winds above 34 knots within 90 nautical miles of centre with rough seas and
moderate swell
Forecast positions
At 0600 UTC 19 March: Within 50 nautical miles of 14.7 south 107.4 east
Central pressure 967 hPa.
Winds to 70 knots.
At 1800 UTC 19 March: Within 80 nautical miles of 15.2 south 105.8 east
Central pressure 957 hPa.
Winds to 90 knots.
REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite to SAC 1241 through Land Earth Station Perth 312.
Next warning will be issued by 0100 UTC 19 March 2009.
WEATHER PERTH
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Re:
KWT wrote:Yep 6hrs ago they had it at 80kts, thats what I was making that comment about. Still all the agencies are forecasting strengthening of Ilsa so lets see where it goes with regards to strength.
The 1200Z had it at 60 kt 10-minute winds, and it was maintained at 60 kt at 1800Z. It was never at 80 kt:
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1311 UTC 18/03/2009
Name: Tropical Cyclone Ilsa
Identifier: 18U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 13.8S
Longitude: 110.8E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [37 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [255 deg]
Speed of Movement: 12 knots [22 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 60 knots [110 km/h]Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 85 knots [155 km/h]
Central Pressure: 984 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
...
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Oh I've seen my mistake, I've mistaken the 12hr forecast strength (which was 80kts at that forecast) for the current strength, so yes 10 min sustained was 60kts.
Anyway it is strengthening as Hurakan has stated and an eye does seem to be forming with a good eyewall really developing well in the NW quadrant. Wonder how high it can go...
Anyway it is strengthening as Hurakan has stated and an eye does seem to be forming with a good eyewall really developing well in the NW quadrant. Wonder how high it can go...
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 0050UTC 19 MARCH 2009
HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING
Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.
SITUATION
At 0000 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Ilsa was centred within 30 nautical miles of
latitude fifteen decimal two south (15.2S)
longitude one hundred and nine decimal zero east (109.0E)
Recent movement : southwest at 11 knots
Maximum winds : 70 knots
Central pressure: 976 hPa
AREA AFFECTED
Within 90 nautical miles of the centre.
FORECAST
Maximum winds to 70 knots near the centre increasing to 90 knots by 0000 UTC 20
March.
Winds above 64 knots within 20 nautical miles of centre with high seas and
heavy swell.
Winds above 48 knots within 40 nautical miles of centre with very rough to high
seas and moderate to heavy swell.
Winds above 34 knots within 90 nautical miles of centre with rough seas and
moderate swell
Forecast positions
At 1200 UTC 19 March: Within 60 nautical miles of 15.9 south 107.2 east
Central pressure 967 hPa.
Winds to 80 knots.
At 0000 UTC 20 March: Within 90 nautical miles of 16.2 south 105.7 east
Central pressure 957 hPa.
Winds to 90 knots.
REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite to SAC 1241 through Land Earth Station Perth 312.
Next warning will be issued by 0700 UTC 19 March 2009.
WEATHER PERTH
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 0050UTC 19 MARCH 2009
HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING
Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.
SITUATION
At 0000 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Ilsa was centred within 30 nautical miles of
latitude fifteen decimal two south (15.2S)
longitude one hundred and nine decimal zero east (109.0E)
Recent movement : southwest at 11 knots
Maximum winds : 70 knots
Central pressure: 976 hPa
AREA AFFECTED
Within 90 nautical miles of the centre.
FORECAST
Maximum winds to 70 knots near the centre increasing to 90 knots by 0000 UTC 20
March.
Winds above 64 knots within 20 nautical miles of centre with high seas and
heavy swell.
Winds above 48 knots within 40 nautical miles of centre with very rough to high
seas and moderate to heavy swell.
Winds above 34 knots within 90 nautical miles of centre with rough seas and
moderate swell
Forecast positions
At 1200 UTC 19 March: Within 60 nautical miles of 15.9 south 107.2 east
Central pressure 967 hPa.
Winds to 80 knots.
At 0000 UTC 20 March: Within 90 nautical miles of 16.2 south 105.7 east
Central pressure 957 hPa.
Winds to 90 knots.
REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite to SAC 1241 through Land Earth Station Perth 312.
Next warning will be issued by 0700 UTC 19 March 2009.
WEATHER PERTH
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 9:57 am WDT on Thursday 19 March 2009
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
Severe Tropical Cyclone Ilsa (Category 3) was located at 9 am WDT near 15.2S
109.0E,
that is 920 km northwest of Exmouth and 640 km southeast of Christmas Island
and moving southwest at 21 kilometres per hour.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Ilsa continues to move over open waters away from the
mainland and poses no threat to the Western Australian coast or Christmas or
Cocos Islands.
No further Information Bulletins will be issued.
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As long as Ilsa can stay north of 20S then heat content should be plenty high enough to support and keep Ilsa fairly strong.
For now looking good, microwave imagery showing a fairly large eye which is now showing on the Vis as well. Also NRL upto 65kts which seems more than reasonable and I see no reason why continued strengthening won't occur for a while yet apart from a slow fall away of heat content, but as we've seen before even fairly small amounts of heat content can support strong systems.
For now looking good, microwave imagery showing a fairly large eye which is now showing on the Vis as well. Also NRL upto 65kts which seems more than reasonable and I see no reason why continued strengthening won't occur for a while yet apart from a slow fall away of heat content, but as we've seen before even fairly small amounts of heat content can support strong systems.
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AXAU01 APRF 190124
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0124 UTC 19/03/2009
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ilsa
Identifier: 18U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 15.2S
Longitude: 109.0E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [231 deg]
Speed of Movement: 11 knots [21 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 70 knots [130 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 100 knots [185 km/h]
Central Pressure: 976 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 20 nm [37 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm [19 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 80 nm [150 km]
Storm Depth: Medium
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 19/1200: 15.9S 107.2E: 060 [110]: 080 [150]: 967
+24: 20/0000: 16.2S 105.7E: 090 [165]: 090 [165]: 957
+36: 20/1200: 16.5S 104.5E: 120 [225]: 090 [165]: 956
+48: 21/0000: 16.6S 103.2E: 155 [285]: 090 [165]: 957
+60: 21/1200: 16.9S 101.5E: 200 [375]: 080 [150]: 967
+72: 22/0000: 17.1S 100.1E: 250 [465]: 070 [130]: 975
REMARKS:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Ilsa continues to develop, with increased banding of
deep convection evident in microwave passes overnight.
Dvorak: DT=5.0 based on eye pattern at 2330Z with Black surround and B/LG
correction, though it is not a classic eye pattern and an eye pattern could not
be consistently applied over the preceding images. Banding is also clearly 1.0+
and if we "cheated" and applied a VIS style curved band analysis [i.e. paid a
wrap of 1.4] we would have a DT4.5. MET/PAT is assessed as 4.5 based on D+
development over 24 hours and PAT is in general agreement. CIMSS AMSU intensity
estimates are also in the T4.5-5.0 region. ADT is discounted for the present due
to likely "plateau" effect until an eye becomes clearly established.
Intensification is being assisted by good upper level outflow channels and warm
SSTs over 29C. Shear over the circulation is low [<10 knots] and likely to
remain generally favourable in the next 48 hours, hence further intensification
is favoured. As the system moves over cooler waters intensity may fluctuate with
shear.
There is strong agreement on a general west to west southwest track under the
influence of a mid-level ridge to the south, although the system is likely to
slow to 6-8 knots in the 24-48 hour period as this ridge weakens.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 19/0700 UTC by Perth TCWC.
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0124 UTC 19/03/2009
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ilsa
Identifier: 18U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 15.2S
Longitude: 109.0E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [231 deg]
Speed of Movement: 11 knots [21 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 70 knots [130 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 100 knots [185 km/h]
Central Pressure: 976 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 20 nm [37 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm [19 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 80 nm [150 km]
Storm Depth: Medium
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 19/1200: 15.9S 107.2E: 060 [110]: 080 [150]: 967
+24: 20/0000: 16.2S 105.7E: 090 [165]: 090 [165]: 957
+36: 20/1200: 16.5S 104.5E: 120 [225]: 090 [165]: 956
+48: 21/0000: 16.6S 103.2E: 155 [285]: 090 [165]: 957
+60: 21/1200: 16.9S 101.5E: 200 [375]: 080 [150]: 967
+72: 22/0000: 17.1S 100.1E: 250 [465]: 070 [130]: 975
REMARKS:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Ilsa continues to develop, with increased banding of
deep convection evident in microwave passes overnight.
Dvorak: DT=5.0 based on eye pattern at 2330Z with Black surround and B/LG
correction, though it is not a classic eye pattern and an eye pattern could not
be consistently applied over the preceding images. Banding is also clearly 1.0+
and if we "cheated" and applied a VIS style curved band analysis [i.e. paid a
wrap of 1.4] we would have a DT4.5. MET/PAT is assessed as 4.5 based on D+
development over 24 hours and PAT is in general agreement. CIMSS AMSU intensity
estimates are also in the T4.5-5.0 region. ADT is discounted for the present due
to likely "plateau" effect until an eye becomes clearly established.
Intensification is being assisted by good upper level outflow channels and warm
SSTs over 29C. Shear over the circulation is low [<10 knots] and likely to
remain generally favourable in the next 48 hours, hence further intensification
is favoured. As the system moves over cooler waters intensity may fluctuate with
shear.
There is strong agreement on a general west to west southwest track under the
influence of a mid-level ridge to the south, although the system is likely to
slow to 6-8 knots in the 24-48 hour period as this ridge weakens.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 19/0700 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 0618UTC 19 MARCH 2009
HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING
Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.
SITUATION
At 0600 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Ilsa was centred within 20 nautical miles of
latitude sixteen decimal zero south (16.0S)
longitude one hundred and seven decimal seven east (107.7E)
Recent movement : southwest at 12 knots
Maximum winds : 80 knots
Central pressure: 968 hPa
AREA AFFECTED
Within 90 nautical miles of the centre.
FORECAST
Maximum winds to 80 knots near the centre increasing to 100 knots by 0600 UTC
20 March.
Winds above 64 knots within 20 nautical miles of centre with high to phenomenal
seas and heavy swell.
Winds above 48 knots within 40 nautical miles of centre with very rough to high
seas and moderate to heavy swell.
Winds above 34 knots within 90 nautical miles of centre with rough seas and
moderate swell
Forecast positions
At 1800 UTC 19 March: Within 50 nautical miles of 16.6 south 106.2 east
Central pressure 957 hPa.
Winds to 90 knots.
At 0600 UTC 20 March: Within 80 nautical miles of 17.0 south 104.7 east
Central pressure 947 hPa.
Winds to 100 knots.
REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite to SAC 1241 through Land Earth Station Perth 312.
Next warning will be issued by 1300 UTC 19 March 2009.
WEATHER PERTH
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 0618UTC 19 MARCH 2009
HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING
Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.
SITUATION
At 0600 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Ilsa was centred within 20 nautical miles of
latitude sixteen decimal zero south (16.0S)
longitude one hundred and seven decimal seven east (107.7E)
Recent movement : southwest at 12 knots
Maximum winds : 80 knots
Central pressure: 968 hPa
AREA AFFECTED
Within 90 nautical miles of the centre.
FORECAST
Maximum winds to 80 knots near the centre increasing to 100 knots by 0600 UTC
20 March.
Winds above 64 knots within 20 nautical miles of centre with high to phenomenal
seas and heavy swell.
Winds above 48 knots within 40 nautical miles of centre with very rough to high
seas and moderate to heavy swell.
Winds above 34 knots within 90 nautical miles of centre with rough seas and
moderate swell
Forecast positions
At 1800 UTC 19 March: Within 50 nautical miles of 16.6 south 106.2 east
Central pressure 957 hPa.
Winds to 90 knots.
At 0600 UTC 20 March: Within 80 nautical miles of 17.0 south 104.7 east
Central pressure 947 hPa.
Winds to 100 knots.
REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite to SAC 1241 through Land Earth Station Perth 312.
Next warning will be issued by 1300 UTC 19 March 2009.
WEATHER PERTH
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