SIO: ILSA - ex-Tropical Cyclone (22S)

[HURAKAN]

19/0830 UTC 16.2S 107.2E T5.0/5.0 ILSA -- Southeast Indian

90 knots

[HURAKAN]

TPXS11 PGTW 191204

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (ILSA)

B. 19/1130Z

C. 16.3S

D. 106.7E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T5.5/5.5/D2.5/24HRS STT: D1.0/06HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 13A/PBO BANDING EYE/ANMTN. 17NM OW EYE SURROUNDED BY
BLK CONVECTIVE RING YIELDS A DT OF 6.0. PT YIELDS A 5.5. MET
YIELDS A 5.0. DBO DT. CONSTRAINTS BROKEN DUE TO SYSTEM
CONTINUING TO DEEPEN.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
19/0652Z 15.9S 107.4E MMHS


UEHARA

[KWT]

Looking very impressive, good eye and a very good structure indeed, even 90kts is probably on the low side for the moment. Could be quite a long lasting system this one compared to whats happened so far this season.

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 19 MAR 2009 Time : 121500 UTC
Lat : 16:22:11 S Lon : 106:43:44 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.8 / 960.7mb/ 84.8kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
4.8 6.1 6.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.9mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 19 km

Center Temp : +3.6C Cloud Region Temp : -72.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 2.2T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[HURAKAN]

Cat. 4

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 1243UTC 19 MARCH 2009

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Ilsa was centred within 20 nautical miles of
latitude sixteen decimal three south (16.3S)
longitude one hundred and six decimal eight east (106.8E)
Recent movement : west southwest at 9 knots
Maximum winds : 90 knots
Central pressure: 958 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 90 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 90 knots near the centre increasing to 105 knots by 1200 UTC
20 March.
Winds above 64 knots within 25 nautical miles of centre with high to phenomenal
seas and heavy swell.
Winds above 48 knots within 40 nautical miles of centre with very rough to high
seas and moderate to heavy swell.
Winds above 34 knots within 90 nautical miles of centre with rough seas and
moderate swell
Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 20 March: Within 50 nautical miles of 16.8 south 105.5 east
Central pressure 947 hPa.
Winds to 100 knots.
At 1200 UTC 20 March: Within 80 nautical miles of 17.2 south 104.3 east
Central pressure 940 hPa.
Winds to 105 knots.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite to SAC 1241 through Land Earth Station Perth 312.

Next warning will be issued by 1900 UTC 19 March 2009.

WEATHER PERTH

[Chacor]

AXAU01 APRF 191301
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1301 UTC 19/03/2009
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ilsa
Identifier: 18U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 16.3S
Longitude: 106.8E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [37 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [249 deg]
Speed of Movement: 9 knots [17 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 90 knots [165 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 125 knots [230 km/h]
Central Pressure: 958 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 25 nm [46 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 12 nm [22 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.5/5.5/D1.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
Storm Depth: Medium
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 20/0000: 16.8S 105.5E: 050 [095]: 100 [185]: 947
+24: 20/1200: 17.2S 104.3E: 080 [150]: 105 [195]: 940
+36: 21/0000: 17.4S 103.0E: 110 [210]: 105 [195]: 940
+48: 21/1200: 17.8S 101.4E: 145 [270]: 090 [165]: 957
+60: 22/0000: 18.1S 99.9E: 190 [355]: 075 [140]: 968
+72: 22/1200: 18.4S 98.6E: 240 [445]: 060 [110]: 980
REMARKS:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Ilsa continues to develop, with an eye becoming better
defined in the past 12 hours.

Dvorak: DT=5.5 based on LG surround [5.0] with +0.5 eye adjustment [OW/W] [note:
black/white ring too narrow]. METagrees based on D+ development over 24 hours
and PAT is in general agreement. Max wind of 90 knot [10min] general agreement
with CIMSS AMSU 96 knot [1min] intensity estimate at 06Z. ADT remains too low
but this is likely to increase substantially once eye pattern becomes dominant.

Intensification continues to be assisted by good upper level outflow channels
and warm SSTs over 29C. Shear over the circulation remains low [<10 knots] and
likely to remain generally favourable in the next 36 hours, hence some further
intensification is favoured. As the system moves toward cooler waters intensity
may fluctuate and weakening should occur as SSTs fall below 28C in the area near
100E.

There is strong agreement on a general west to west southwest track under the
influence of a mid-level ridge to the south, although this ridge should now be
weakening slowing the system to 6-8 knots through the forecast period.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 19/1900 UTC by Perth TCWC.

Expected to weaken below Meteo-France's TC threshold (65 kt) before crossing 90E, if it even makes it that far.

[HURAKAN]

SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (ILSA) WARNING NR 004
WTXS32 PGTW 191500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (ILSA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 16.3S 106.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S 106.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 16.9S 105.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 17.2S 103.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 17.5S 102.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 17.8S 100.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 106.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (ILSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 625 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COCOS ISLAND HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 22S HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT POSITION AND
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE BASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE FIXES FROM
PGTW AND APRF AND ASSOCIATED T-NUMBER VALUES OF 5.5 FROM BOTH
REPORTING AGENCIES. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTH-
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENSION. GENERALLY
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE CONTINUED STEERING INFLUENCE OF THIS
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS SHOULD
ALLOW FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. HOWEVER,
THE CYCLONE WILL ENCOUNTER DECREASING ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS
AFTER TAU 12, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SLOW WEAKENING. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 200300Z AND 201500Z.

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 19 MAR 2009 Time : 143000 UTC
Lat : 16:13:08 S Lon : 106:25:03 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.1 / 953.8mb/ 92.4kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
5.1 4.6 4.7

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.4mb

Center Temp : -54.6C Cloud Region Temp : -72.6C

Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.2T/12hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[KWT]

Still strengthening it seems according to Dvorak estimates, and as the agencies state we should see something of a peak in the next 24hrs with Ilsa. Will be interesting to see how far west it can go, because whilst it is forecasted to weaken heat content is still high enough to support a TC and much depends on the upper conditions such as shear.

[HURAKAN]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 1832UTC 19 MARCH 2009

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1800 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Ilsa was centred within 20 nautical miles of
latitude sixteen decimal four south (16.4S)
longitude one hundred and six decimal zero east (106.0E)
Recent movement : west southwest at 9 knots
Maximum winds : 90 knots
Central pressure: 958 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 90 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 90 knots near the centre increasing to 85 knots by 1800 UTC 20
March.
Winds above 64 knots within 25 nautical miles of centre with high to phenomenal
seas and heavy swell.
Winds above 48 knots within 40 nautical miles of centre with very rough to high
seas and moderate to heavy swell.
Winds above 34 knots within 90 nautical miles of centre with rough seas and
moderate swell
Forecast positions
At 0600 UTC 20 March: Within 50 nautical miles of 17.0 south 104.8 east
Central pressure 957 hPa.
Winds to 90 knots.
At 1800 UTC 20 March: Within 80 nautical miles of 17.2 south 103.5 east
Central pressure 961 hPa.
Winds to 85 knots.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite to SAC 1241 through Land Earth Station Perth 312.

Next warning will be issued by 0100 UTC 20 March 2009.

WEATHER PERTH

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1833 UTC 19/03/2009
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ilsa
Identifier: 18U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 16.4S
Longitude: 106.0E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [37 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [257 deg]
Speed of Movement: 9 knots [16 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 90 knots [165 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 125 knots [230 km/h]
Central Pressure: 958 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 25 nm [46 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 12 nm [22 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.5/5.5/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
Storm Depth: Medium
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 20/0600: 17.0S 104.8E: 050 [095]: 090 [165]: 957
+24: 20/1800: 17.2S 103.5E: 080 [150]: 085 [155]: 961
+36: 21/0600: 17.5S 102.0E: 110 [210]: 080 [150]: 967
+48: 21/1800: 17.8S 100.5E: 145 [270]: 070 [130]: 975
+60: 22/0600: 18.2S 99.1E: 190 [355]: 060 [110]: 980
+72: 22/1800: 18.4S 97.7E: 240 [445]: 055 [100]: 984
REMARKS:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Ilsa appears to have completed its period of rapid
intensification in the last few hours. The eye which was increasingly well
defined has lost its definition on the past few IR images.

Dvorak: DT=4.5/5.5 based on LG surround [5.0] with either 0.5 or -0.5 eye
adjustment on recent images. MET=5.5 PAT=5.0. FT maintained at 5.5 although this
may be revised down if imagery shows continued loss of eye definition in
subsequent images.

Some process of re-intensification is still possible as favourable upper level
outflow channels and low shear continues. As the system moves toward cooler
waters intensity may fluctuate and weakening is forecast as SSTs fall below 28C
in the area towards 100E.

There is strong agreement on a general west to west southwest track under the
influence of a weakening mid-level ridge to the south.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 20/0100 UTC by Perth TCWC.

[KWT]

Does look like Ilsa has levelled out over the last 6hrs or so, I suppose not helped by the fact its heading towards increasingly lower heat content from now onwards. Also still forecasting pretty decent weakening occuring past 36hrs.

[HURAKAN]

Looks like Ilsa is becoming less organized.

[HURAKAN]

Still impressive in the microwave.

[hurricanefloyd5]

I am glad it's leveling off because this is a dangerous storm to the shipping lanes and pray nobody sailed into this puppy

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 0050UTC 20 MARCH 2009

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0000 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Ilsa was centred within 20 nautical miles of
latitude sixteen decimal two south (16.2S)
longitude one hundred and five decimal two east (105.2E)
Recent movement : west at 8 knots
Maximum winds : 80 knots
Central pressure: 966 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 80 knots near the centre easing to 70 knots by 0000 UTC 21
March.
Winds above 64 knots within 25 nautical miles of centre with high to phenomenal
seas and heavy swell.
Winds above 48 knots within 40 nautical miles of centre with very rough to high
seas and moderate to heavy swell.
Winds above 34 knots within 60 nautical miles of the centre in northern
quadrants extending to within 90 nautical miles in southern quadrants, with
rough seas and moderate swell
Forecast positions
At 1200 UTC 20 March: Within 50 nautical miles of 16.4 south 103.8 east
Central pressure 971 hPa.
Winds to 75 knots.
At 0000 UTC 21 March: Within 80 nautical miles of 16.6 south 102.5 east
Central pressure 975 hPa.
Winds to 70 knots.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite to SAC 1241 through Land Earth Station Perth 312.

Next warning will be issued by 0700 UTC 20 March 2009.

WEATHER PERTH

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

JTWC: 110 knots

Interesting that BoM weakens Ilsa and the JTWC intensifies it.

[KWT]

Ilsa really doesn't look all that great on the Ir imagery Hurakan, southern side seems to be having a really tough time, reminds me of Ike when it weakened in the C/W Atlantic as shear increased a little. Still Microwave imagery looks decent enough...