SIO: ILSA - ex-Tropical Cyclone (22S)

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#21 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Mar 17, 2009 8:32 pm

Image

Image

NRL: 35 knots
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Re: AUS NT: INVEST 92P - TCFA

#22 Postby RattleMan » Tue Mar 17, 2009 9:15 pm

WTAU05 APRF 180202
IDW23100
40:3:1:24:14S113E999:11:00
SECURITE
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 0202UTC 18 MARCH 2009
STORM FORCE WIND WARNING
Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.
SITUATION
At 0000 UTC Tropical Cyclone Ilsa was centred within 10 nautical miles of
latitude thirteen decimal five south (13.5S)
longitude one hundred and thirteen decimal four east (113.4E)
Recent movement : west southwest at 17 knots
Maximum winds : 35 knots
Central pressure: 1000 hPa
AREA AFFECTED
Within 90 nautical miles of the centre.
FORECAST
Maximum winds to 35 knots near the centre increasing to 50 knots by 0000 UTC 19
March.
Winds above 48 knots within 30 nautical miles of centre by 0000 UTC 19 March
with very rough to high seas and moderate to heavy swell.
Winds above 34 knots within 60 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 30 nautical miles in NW quadrant, extending to 90nm in all
quadrants by 1200 UTC 18 March with rough seas and moderate swell
Forecast positions
At 1200 UTC 18 March: Within 60 nautical miles of 14.3 south 110.6 east
Central pressure 1000 hPa.
Winds to 35 knots.
At 0000 UTC 19 March: Within 90 nautical miles of 14.9 south 108.3 east
Central pressure 990 hPa.
Winds to 50 knots.
REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite to SAC 1241 through Land Earth Station Perth 312.
Next warning will be issued by 0700 UTC 18 March 2009.
WEATHER PERTH
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#23 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Mar 17, 2009 9:29 pm

Image

Image

This system seems to have develop an extremely small eye. If there is an eye, then it's being underestimated intensity-wise.
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#24 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Mar 17, 2009 9:33 pm

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0209 UTC 18/03/2009
Name: Tropical Cyclone Ilsa
Identifier: 18U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 13.5S
Longitude: 113.4E
Location Accuracy: within 10 nm [19 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [258 deg]
Speed of Movement: 17 knots [32 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 60 nm [110 km]
Storm Depth: Medium
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 18/1200: 14.3S 110.6E: 060 [110]: 035 [065]: 1000
+24: 19/0000: 14.9S 108.3E: 090 [165]: 050 [095]: 990
+36: 19/1200: 15.5S 106.8E: 120 [225]: 050 [095]: 989
+48: 20/0000: 15.9S 105.4E: 155 [285]: 055 [100]: 986
+60: 20/1200: 16.1S 104.2E: 200 [375]: 060 [110]: 983
+72: 21/0000: 16.2S 102.6E: 250 [465]: 060 [110]: 983
REMARKS:
Re-issued due to naming of system on receipt of microwave imagery.

Tropical Cyclone Ilsa has developed overnight and is moving consistantly in a
WSW direction. The system is currently under low NE shear and there is potential
of further development.

The 2335UTC SSMI microwave image shows the system has developed an eye. The
2217UTC Quikscat shows gales in at least three quadrants. The system is very
small with gales extending out to a maximum of 90nm in the southeast quadrant
under convective bands.

Numerical guidance is very consistent with a mid level ridge to the south
resulting in a WSW forecast track over the next few days.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 18/0700 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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#25 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Mar 17, 2009 9:34 pm

Image

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 11:06 am WDT on Wednesday 18 March 2009
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

Tropical Cyclone Ilsa (Category 1) was located at 9 am WDT near 13.5S 113.4E,
that is 880 km north northwest of Karratha and 940 km north of Exmouth and
moving west southwest at 32 kilometres per hour.
Tropical Cyclone Ilsa is not expected to affect the Western Australian coast in
the next 48 hours.
The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 4 pm WDT.
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#26 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Mar 17, 2009 9:40 pm

Image

WTXS32 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 13.7S 113.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S 113.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 14.3S 110.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 14.8S 107.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 15.0S 105.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 14.9S 103.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 13.9S 112.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (TWENTYTWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 510 NM
NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS
DEEP CONVECTION FORMING IN THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST QUADRANTS AND
IN THE CENTER OF A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION. ANIMATED WATER-VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A THE SYSTEM DEVELOPING A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IN
THE LAST FEW HOURS. A 172252Z SSMI IMAGE SHOWS WELL-DEFINED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTH AND INTO A WELL DEFINED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. AS
THE SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IT WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE
AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONE AND WILL BE IN AN AREA OF MORE
FAVORABLE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 171951Z MAR 09 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 172000) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 8 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z AND 19300Z.
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#27 Postby Chacor » Wed Mar 18, 2009 6:39 am

Up to Cat 2. Now 50 kt.
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#28 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Mar 18, 2009 8:08 am

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 1251UTC 18 MARCH 2009

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC Tropical Cyclone Ilsa was centred within 20 nautical miles of
latitude thirteen decimal eight south (13.8S)
longitude one hundred and ten decimal eight east (110.8E)
Recent movement : west southwest at 12 knots
Maximum winds : 60 knots
Central pressure: 984 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 90 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 60 knots near the centre increasing to 90 knots by 1200 UTC 19
March.
Winds above 64 knots within 20 nautical miles of centre with high seas and
heavy swell.
Winds above 48 knots within 30 nautical miles of centre with very rough seas
and moderate swell.
Winds above 34 knots within 90 nautical miles of centre with rough seas and
moderate swell
Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 19 March: Within 50 nautical miles of 14.4 south 108.4 east
Central pressure 968 hPa.
Winds to 80 knots.
At 1200 UTC 19 March: Within 80 nautical miles of 15.1 south 106.7 east
Central pressure 957 hPa.
Winds to 90 knots.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite to SAC 1241 through Land Earth Station Perth 312.

Next warning will be issued by 1900 UTC 18 March 2009.

WEATHER PERTH
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#29 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Mar 18, 2009 8:11 am

Image
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#30 Postby KWT » Wed Mar 18, 2009 8:18 am

Its looking a little more ragged then it did about 12hrs ago though it still has a good shape and decent convection around it, but I'm not sure its strengthening much right now. Still its forecasted to become quite a powerful cyclone.

Also given the forecasted track this could be quite a long lasting system, haven't had many thus far in the S.Hemisphere this season.
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#31 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Mar 18, 2009 8:37 am

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Looks good.
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#32 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Mar 18, 2009 8:38 am

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1311 UTC 18/03/2009
Name: Tropical Cyclone Ilsa
Identifier: 18U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 13.8S
Longitude: 110.8E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [37 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [255 deg]
Speed of Movement: 12 knots [22 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 60 knots [110 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 85 knots [155 km/h]
Central Pressure: 984 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 20 nm [37 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 20 nm [37 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 20 nm [37 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 20 nm [37 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm [19 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 80 nm [150 km]
Storm Depth: Medium
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 19/0000: 14.4S 108.4E: 050 [095]: 080 [150]: 968
+24: 19/1200: 15.1S 106.7E: 080 [150]: 090 [165]: 957
+36: 20/0000: 15.5S 105.2E: 110 [210]: 095 [175]: 952
+48: 20/1200: 15.7S 103.9E: 145 [270]: 100 [185]: 947
+60: 21/0000: 15.8S 102.4E: 190 [355]: 100 [185]: 947
+72: 21/1200: 15.9S 100.6E: 240 [445]: 095 [175]: 953
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Ilsa has intensified rapidly during today with microwave
imagery showing evidence of an emerging eye, not yet seen on IR or Vis imagery.
Recent IR imagery shows very deep convection over the centre and strong banding
to the west of the centre.
Dvorak: DT=4.0 based on curved band wrap of 1.0+ [3.5] with a 0.5 addition
because of the cold band.[note: Eye pattern will give 5.0 [White/White]].
MET/PAT agree, hence FT/CI=4.0.

Should an eye emerge on IR imagery the DT is likely to increase quickly,
although having a very small radius to maximum winds, it is possible that IR
imagery may not adequately resolve the eye for some time. Nevertheless further
intensification is expected with low shear likely to continue through at least
48 hours.

Being such a small circulation, the system is likely to undergo fluctuations in
intensity in the 72 hour forecast period and may weaken at the end of this
period as it moves over waters less than 28C.

There is strong agreement on a general west to west southwest track under the
influence of a mid-level ridge to the south, although the system is likely to
slow to 6-8 knots in the 24-48 hour period as this ridge weakens.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 18/1900 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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#33 Postby KWT » Wed Mar 18, 2009 8:45 am

When you see it like that Hurakan, its a lot stronger then I thought it was. Certainly does have deep convection at the moment as well!
IR does sort of hint at a eye developing as well with some deeper convection where the eastern eyewall should be showing up.
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Re: SIO: ILSA - Tropical Cyclone (22P)

#34 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Mar 18, 2009 9:20 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 18 MAR 2009 Time : 133000 UTC
Lat : 13:39:07 S Lon : 110:23:59 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 / 992.2mb/ 43.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.9 3.0 3.7

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -70.4C Cloud Region Temp : -74.8C

Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
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#35 Postby KWT » Wed Mar 18, 2009 9:21 am

Amazing to see the difference between the current estimate of the forecasting agencies and the Dvorak estimate.
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#36 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Mar 18, 2009 9:29 am

Image

NRL: 50 knots
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Re:

#37 Postby Chacor » Wed Mar 18, 2009 9:53 am

KWT wrote:Amazing to see the difference between the current estimate of the forecasting agencies and the Dvorak estimate.


You mean the automated ADT. I wouldn't trust it here as it doesn't see the microwave. APRF are at T4.0.
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#38 Postby Derek Ortt » Wed Mar 18, 2009 10:16 am

ADT works best when there is a well-defined eye
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Re: SIO: ILSA - Tropical Cyclone (22P)

#39 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Mar 18, 2009 10:22 am

Image

WTXS32 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (ILSA) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (ILSA) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 13.6S 110.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S 110.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 13.9S 108.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 14.5S 106.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 15.0S 104.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 15.4S 103.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 13.7S 110.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (ILSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES A
RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF TC 22S OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE OVERALL
STRUCTURE OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS IMPROVED
OVER THE 12 HOURS. AN 181212Z SSMIS PASS REFLECTS DEEP BANDING
CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED AND INCREASED OVER THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INIDICATES THAT TC 22S IS LOCATED ALONG THE EQUATORWARD
SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS PROVIDING
STRONG DIVEGENT FLOW, WITH A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL THAT CONTINUES
TO DEVELOP. TC 22S IS LOCATED IN IN A REGION OF LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES PROVIDING
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE WEST IT WILL
MOVE CLOSER TO THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONE AND WILL BE
IN AN AREA OF MORE FAVORABLE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z AND 191500Z.//
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Re: SIO: ILSA - Tropical Cyclone (22P)

#40 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Mar 18, 2009 1:12 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 18 MAR 2009 Time : 163000 UTC
Lat : 13:44:37 S Lon : 109:48:00 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.7 / 980.8mb/ 59.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.6 3.5 3.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -58.9C Cloud Region Temp : -67.1C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.38 ARC in WHITE
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.40 ARC in WHITE
at Lat: 13:44:23 S Lon: 108:48:00 E

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
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