SPO: KEN - Tropical Cyclone (21P)

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#21 Postby KWT » Tue Mar 17, 2009 6:57 am

Supportive of 35kts, very interesting. At the least I think ths structure supports it even if the convection isn't stunning.
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#22 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Mar 17, 2009 7:02 am

Image

This recent burst appears to be co-located with the well-defined center of circulation.
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Re: SPO: KEN - Tropical Cyclone (95P)

#23 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Mar 17, 2009 7:03 am

Image

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 17/0815 UTC 2009 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE KEN [995HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.7S 162.3W AT
170600 UTC MOVING SOUTHEAST 11 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND LATEST MICROWAVE PASS. EXPECT SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120
NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.

LLCC SLIPPING UNDER DEEP CONVECTION. SPIRAL BAND TO EAST
CONSOLIDATING AND WRAPPING AROUND LLCC. OUTFLOW GOOD TO SOUTH THROUGH
EAST AND NORTHWEST BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON
A 0.60 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL RESULTS IN DT=PT=MET=3.0. FT BASED ON DT,
YIELDING T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS. SHORT WAVE UPPER TROUGH PASSING OVER
THE SYSTEM. A MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST IS EXPECTED TO STEER THE
SYSTEM SOUTHEASTWARDS. GLOBAL MODELS SUPPORT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION
OF 12F AND QUICKLY MOVE KEN SOUTHEAST. ECMWF INDICATES AN AMPLIFYING
THERMAL TROUGH TO THE WEST OF 12F AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN THE
SYSTEM RAPIDLY IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FORECASTS:
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 171800 UTC 23.6S 161.3W MOV SSE 11 KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 180600 UTC 25.5S 160.0W MOV SSE 11 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 181800 UTC 27.3S 158.3W MOV SE 12 KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 190600 UTC 29.1S 156.4W MOV SE 12 KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC KEN WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 171430 UTC OR EARLIER.
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#24 Postby KWT » Tue Mar 17, 2009 7:37 am

Indeed Hurakan looks quite close to where the center is progged to be. Also very interesting to see how agressive the forecast is over the next 24hrs.
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#25 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Mar 17, 2009 9:38 am

Image

SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 21P (KEN) WARNING NR 001
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN/161251Z MAR 09//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTPS31 PGTW 171500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21P (KEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 22.2S 162.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 22.2S 162.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 23.4S 162.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 24.6S 161.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 26.4S 160.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 28.8S 157.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 22.5S 162.5W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21P (KEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF RAROTONGA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 170452Z QUIKSCAT PASS REFLECT A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LLCC OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE QUIKSCAT IMAGE INDICATE UNFLAGGED WINDS OF 30
TO 35 KNOTS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). ADDITIONALLY, A 170528Z SSMI PASS REFLECT INCREASED BANDING
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE LLCC. CURRENTLY THE LLCC IS LOCATED
OVER FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND IS TRACKING ALONG THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 21P IS LOCATED IN
A REGION OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WITH EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW, AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED EAST OF TC 21P PROVIDING
ADDITIONAL OUTFLOW ALONG THE EASTERN QUADRANT. INTENSITY IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS KEN REMAINS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 161251Z MAR 09 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 161300). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z
AND 181500Z.
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#26 Postby KWT » Tue Mar 17, 2009 11:55 am

Interesting to see the difference between the forecasting agencies with regards to how quickly they expect Ken to strengthen.
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#27 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Mar 17, 2009 1:42 pm

Image
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#28 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Mar 17, 2009 3:29 pm

Gale Warning 015 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 17/1919 UTC 2009 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone KEN 12F [990hPa] CATEGORY 1 centre was located near
23 decimal 0 South 163 decimal 3 West at 171800 UTC.
Position Poor.
Repeat position 23.0S 163.3W at 171800 UTC.
Cyclone moving southwest at about 08 knots.
Expect sustained winds of 40 knots close to the centre.
Expect winds over 33 knots within 120 nautical miles of centre in the
sector northwest through east to south and within 60 nautical miles
elsewhere of centre.

Forecast position near 24.5S 163.8W at 180600 UTC.
and near 27.0S 163.8W at 181800 UTC.

All vessels within 300 nautical miles of centre are requested to
send
reports every three hours. VOS reporting ships use normal channels.
Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov
dot fj.

This warning cancels and replaces warning 014.
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#29 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Mar 17, 2009 3:29 pm

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A3 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 17/1417 UTC 2009 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE KEN [990HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2S 162.3W AT
171200 UTC MOVING SOUTHSOUTHEAST 08 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON
MTSAT IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 KNOTS
CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 45 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
SECTOR NORTHWEST THROUGH EAST TO SOUTH AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES
ELSEWHERE OF CENTRE.

LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER DEEP CONVECTION IN A WEAKLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. SPIRAL BAND TO EAST CONSOLIDATING AND WRAPPING AROUND
LLCC. DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS EVIDENT NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE SYTEM.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON A 0.60 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL RESULTS IN
DT=PT=MET=3.0. FT BASED ON DT, YIELDING T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS. A MID
LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST IS STEERING THE SYSTEM SOUTHEASTWARDS. GLOBAL
MODELS SUPPORT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF 12F AND QUICKLY MOVE KEN
SOUTHEAST. ECMWF INDICATES AN AMPLIFYING THERMAL TROUGH TO THE WEST
OF 12F AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY IN THE NEXT
18 TO 24 HOURS.

FORECASTS:
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 180000 UTC 24.3S 161.8W MOV SSE 11 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 181200 UTC 26.3S 160.4W MOV SSE 12 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 190000 UTC 28.3S 158.4W MOV SE 14 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 191200 UTC 29.9S 156.2W MOV SE 14 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC KEN WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 172030 UTC OR EARLIER.
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#30 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Mar 17, 2009 5:43 pm

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A4 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 17/2040 UTC 2009 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE KEN [990HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0S 163.3W AT
171800 UTC MOVING SOUTHWEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT
IR/VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 KNOTS
CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL
MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SECTOR NORTHWEST THROUGH EAST TO SOUTH AND
WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE OF CENTRE.

LLCC PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO WEST OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH SPIRAL BANDS
TO EAST STILL TRYING TO WRAP AROUND LLCC. CIMSS INDICATES 15-20KT
SHEAR OVER SYSTEM. OUTFLOW GOOD TO SOUTH AND EAST BUT POOR ELSEWHERE.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON LLCC SHEARED ABOUT 0.3 DEGREE FROM DEEP
CONVECTION, YIELDING DT=2.5. PT=MET=2.5. FT=3.0, THUS
T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS. A MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST IS STEERING THE
SYSTEM SOUTHWARDS INTO STRENGTHENING SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON
SOUTHWARD TRACK BUT DIFFER ON INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, ECMWF
INDICATES AN AMPLIFYING THERMAL TROUGH TO THE WEST OF 12F WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.

FORECASTS:
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 180600 UTC 24.5S 163.8W MOV SSW 08 KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 181800 UTC 27.0S 163.8W MOV S 13 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 190600 UTC 29.5S 161.8W MOV SE 15 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 191800 UTC 32.2S 157.2W MOV SE 24 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC KEN WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 180230 UTC OR EARLIER.
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#31 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Mar 17, 2009 7:24 pm

Image

Shear.
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#32 Postby KWT » Tue Mar 17, 2009 7:28 pm

Yep looks like shear is displacing Kens convection now.
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#33 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Mar 17, 2009 9:39 pm

Image

SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 21P (KEN) WARNING NR 002
WTPS31 PGTW 180300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21P (KEN) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 22.8S 162.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 22.8S 162.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 23.7S 162.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 25.5S 161.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 28.2S 159.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 23.0S 162.6W.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 10 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z AND 190300Z.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN
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#34 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Mar 18, 2009 9:17 am

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A7 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 18/0828 UTC 2009 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE KEN [987HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5S 162.1W AT
180600 UTC MOVING SOUTHEAST 08 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT
IR WITH ANIMATION. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE
CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF
CENTRE IN THE SECTOR NORTHWEST THROUGH EAST TO SOUTH AND WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE OF CENTRE.

LLCC APPEARS TO HAVE SLIPPED UNDER DEVELOPING CDO. CIMSS INDICATES
WEAK SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD TO SOUTH THROUGH
EAST AND NORTH BUT POOR ELSEWHERE. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON LOG 10
SPIRAL WRAP 0F 0.6, YIELDING DT=PT=MET=3.0. THUS T3.0/3.0/D0.0/24HRS.
TC KEN IS LOCATED JUST SOUTHWEST OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH FROM THE WEST WILL INCREASE ITS
TRANSLATIONAL SPEED TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHEAST TRACK. COOLER SSTs AND INCREASING
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR BEYOND 24 HOURS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM.

FORECASTS:
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 181800 UTC 25.2S 160.8W MOV SE 10 KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 190600 UTC 27.8S 159.0W MOV SSE 15 KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 191800 UTC 31.1S 156.1W MOV SE 21 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 200600 UTC 35.3S 151.5W MOV SE 25 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC KEN WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 181430 UTC OR EARLIER.
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#35 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Mar 18, 2009 9:18 am

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#36 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Mar 18, 2009 9:19 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 18 MAR 2009 Time : 132200 UTC
Lat : 24:07:54 S Lon : 161:33:55 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 /1001.0mb/ 43.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.9 3.3 3.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -64.8C Cloud Region Temp : -53.2C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.33 ARC in WHITE
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.44 ARC in WHITE
at Lat: 24:31:48 S Lon: 161:09:36 W

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************
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#37 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Mar 18, 2009 2:17 pm

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#38 Postby KWT » Wed Mar 18, 2009 2:19 pm

It seems to be if anything a little better organised over the last 6hrs or so, wrapping back up again...
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#39 Postby Chacor » Wed Mar 18, 2009 3:06 pm

50 kt from Nadi. Wellington takes next advisory.
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#40 Postby KWT » Wed Mar 18, 2009 3:15 pm

Wouldn't surprise me if it was stronger Chacor given the way it looks right now, seems better wrapped around.
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