SPO: KEN - Tropical Cyclone (21P)

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HURAKAN
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#41 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Mar 18, 2009 3:30 pm

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Not looking as good in the infrared. NRL: 45 knots
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Re: SPO: KEN - Tropical Cyclone (21P)

#42 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Mar 18, 2009 8:35 pm

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#43 Postby KWT » Wed Mar 18, 2009 8:38 pm

Convection slowly but surely becoming more shallow as you'd expect as it moves towards cooler waters, though the southern half still looks ok.
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#44 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Mar 18, 2009 9:11 pm

WTPS31 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21P (KEN) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21P (KEN) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 25.6S 160.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.6S 160.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 28.5S 158.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 32.8S 154.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 26.3S 159.6W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21P (KEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265 NM SOUTH
OF RAROTONGA, HAS MOVED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED CONVECTION AROUND ITS LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER AND HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED INTENSITY. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A FRONT-LIKE CONVERGENT
LINE HAS FORMED ON THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 21P IS RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE, CHARACTERIZED BY INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO FULLY TRANSITION INTO
AN EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z WAS 12 FEET.
//
NNNN
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#45 Postby Chacor » Wed Mar 18, 2009 11:38 pm

Wellington down to 45 kt.

WTNZ41 NZKL 190035
GALE WARNING 359
THIS AFFECTS OCEAN AREA: PACIFIC
TROPICAL CYCLONE KEN 987HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.6 SOUTH 159.
8 WEST AT 190000 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 25.6S 159.8W AT 190000 UTC.
CYCLONE IS MOVING SOUTHEAST 15 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE EASING TO 40
KNOTS BY 191200 UTC.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SECTOR
FROM SOUTH THROUGH WEST TO NORTHWEST AND WITHIN 150 MILES OF CENTRE
IN THE SECTOR FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST TO SOUTH.
FORECAST POSITION NEAR 28.3S 157.3W AT 191200 UTC
AND NEAR 32.5S 153.5W AT 200000 UTC.
THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 353.
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#46 Postby Chacor » Thu Mar 19, 2009 9:18 am

Back to 50 kt.

WTNZ41 NZKL 191227
STORM WARNING 370
THIS AFFECTS OCEAN AREA: PACIFIC
TROPICAL CYCLONE KEN 985HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.7 SOUTH 157.
3 WEST AT 191200 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 28.7S 157.3W AT 191200 UTC.
CYCLONE IS MOVING SOUTHEAST 15 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SECTOR
FROM SOUTH THROUGH WEST TO NORTHWEST AND WITHIN 180 MILES OF CENTRE
IN THE SECTOR FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST TO SOUTH.
FORECAST POSITION NEAR 32.5S 153.5W AT 200000 UTC
AND NEAR 38.0S 147.5W AT 201200 UTC.
THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 364.
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#47 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Mar 19, 2009 9:50 am

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#48 Postby Chacor » Thu Mar 19, 2009 8:43 pm

Gonzo.

STORM WARNING 380
This affects ocean area: PACIFIC
AT 200000UTC
Low 992hPa, former Cyclone KEN, near 34S 153W moving eastsoutheast 30kt.
1. Within 60 miles of low in northeast semicircle: Clockwise 50kt easing to 40kt next 6-12 hours.
2. Outside area 1 and within 180 miles of low in northeast semicircle: Clockwise 40kt.
3. Outside areas 1 and 2 and within 120 miles of low in southwest semicircle: Clockwise 40kt.
Storm and gale areas moving with low.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 375.

Issued at 00:22:46Z on 20-Mar-2009
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#49 Postby KWT » Thu Mar 19, 2009 9:02 pm

I'm guessing they have declared it extra tropical now, which is not surprising given the look it has right now and the fairly shallow convection it has currently.
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