Coral Sea: JASPER - Tropical Cyclone

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HURAKAN
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#81 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Mar 25, 2009 8:33 am

KWT wrote:Amazing to see the change in Jasper's fortunes in the forecasts, its gone from being expected to become quite a strong cyclone, to not even existing!


Pretty incredible. Amazingly failed forecast.
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HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 32
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#82 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Mar 25, 2009 8:39 am

Image

WTPS31 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (JASPER) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 21.5S 163.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 21.5S 163.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 20.9S 163.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 21.3S 163.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (JASPER), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 165 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED
NORTH-NORTH-WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM HAS COMPLETELY DECOUPLED FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) AND HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALOFT AND COOL AIR ENTRAINMENT AT THE LOW LEVELS.
THE CURRENT LLCC POSITION HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AND WAS
EXTRAPOLATED FROM MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND NEARBY SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK T-NUMBER OF
1.5 FROM NFFN. TC 23P IS NOW BEING STEERED NORTH BY A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
INTENSITY AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS
IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONI-
TORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
251200Z IS 12 FEET.//
NNNN
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