Coral Sea: JASPER - Tropical Cyclone

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

Huge convective burst there Hurakan but looking sheared again. I think the forecasted strength is rather optimistic over the next 24hrs to be honest, thugh such a huge convective burst is bound to have decent winds in it even if its shear related so some strengthening still possible.

Slow motion is expected as well with Jasper, the ECM eventually suggests this heads towards Australia....and will surely at some point find some better conditions to work with.

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

A couple of 50kt barbs in there which are not rain contimanted which supports the idea of this being 50kts, though they are very isolated and most are in the 25-35kts range.

[HURAKAN]

HURRICANE WARNING 039 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 24/1312 UTC 2009 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE JASPER [980HPA] CATEGORY 2 CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 20 DECIMAL 4
SOUTH 161 DECIMAL 2 EAST AT 241200 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 20.4S 161.2E AT 241200 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 18 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 55 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 65 KNOTS IN
THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 250 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 240 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 350 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 21.4S 161.8E AT 250000 UTC
AND NEAR 21.9S 161.5E AT 251200 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS EVERY THREE
HOURS. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679
6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 038.

[HURAKAN]

WTPS31 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (JASPER) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (JASPER) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 19.1S 160.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1S 160.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 20.2S 161.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 21.6S 163.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 22.9S 165.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 23.7S 168.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 161.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (JASPER), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 365 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS AN EXPANSIVE DEEP COLD DENSE OVERCAST MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO
LOCATE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 240640 QUIKSCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AND NUMEROUS
SHIP OBSERVATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF TC 23P WITH A FAIR DEGREE OF
CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK FIXES FROM PGTW
AND NFFN AT 3.0 AND 3.5, RESPECTIVELY. THE SYSTEM HAS TRACKED FASTER
TO THE SOUTHEAST THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST IN RESPONSE TO THE RIDGE TO
THE NORTHEAST THAT HAS RAPIDLY BUILT AND BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING
INFLUENCE. POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS VIGOROUS OVER THE SYSTEM, AS
EVIDENCED ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. HOWEVER, MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND COOLING ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
TEMPER THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 241200Z IS 14 FEET.NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z AND 251500Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

TPPS10 PGTW 241216

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (JASPER)

B. 24/1130Z

C. 20.0S

D. 161.8E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T3.0/3.0/D1.5/18HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 70/PBO ANMTN. DT BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN OF < 3/4
DEGREE FOR 3.0. LOOKS AS IF THE LLCC IS ADJACENT TO THE
CONVECTION ON THE NE SIDE. MET AND PT SUPPORT 3.0.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


BRANDON

[Chacor]

JTWC no longer expecting recurvature? Nadi's still going for it.

FKPS01 NFFN 241200 AAA
TC ADVISORY
DTG:200903241400Z
TCAC:NFFN
TC:JASPER
NR:03
PSN:S2006 E16218
MOV:SE 20KT
C:980HPA
MAX WIND:55KT
FCST PSN +06HR:S2036 E16236
FCST MAX WIND +06HR:55KT
FCST PSN + 12 HR:S2106 E16254
FCST MAX WIND + 12 HR:65KT
FCST PSN + 18 HR:S2124 E16242
FCST MAX WIND + 18 HR:65KT
FCST PSN + 24 HR:S2136 E16230
FCST MAX WIND + 24 HR:65KT
RMK:NIL
NXT MSG:20090324/1930Z

[Chacor]

WHPS01 NFFN 241200 CCA
HURRICANE WARNING 040 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 24/1456 UTC 2009 UTC.

***CORRECTION TO POSITION***
TROPICAL CYCLONE JASPER [980HPA] CATEGORY 2 CENTRE WAS RE-LOCATED NEAR 20
DECIMAL 1 SOUTH 162 DECIMAL 3 EAST AT 241200 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 20.1S 162.3E AT 241200 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 20 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 55 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 65 KNOTS IN
THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 250 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 240 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 350 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 21.1S 162.9E AT 250000 UTC
AND NEAR 21.6S 162.5E AT 251200 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS EVERY THREE
HOURS. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679
6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 039.

[HURAKAN]

Erupting over the center.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 24/1516 UTC 2009 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE JASPER [980HPA] CATEGORY 2 CENTRE WAS RE-LOCATED
NEAR 20 DECIMAL 1 SOUTH 162 DECIMAL 3 EAST AT 241200 UTC. POSITION
FAIR BASED ON MTSAT IR/EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND RECENT RADAR
IMAGERY FROM TIEBAGHI RADAR IN NEW CALEDONIA. CYCLONE MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 20 KNOTS. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 55 KNOTS CLOSE
TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 65 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18
HOURS.EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 250 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN
THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 240
NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 350
NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.

CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED IN THE LAST 6 HOURS WITH MAIN CONVECTION
SHEARED TO SOUTH OF LLCC. OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD TO SOUTH BUT
RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING
EAST OVER THE SYSTEM. JASPER IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED SOUTHEASTWARD
BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEAR
PATTERN WITH LLCC LOCATED 0.6 DEGREES FROM EDGE OF CONVECTION YIELDS
DT=2.5, MET=3.5, PT=3.0. FT BASED ON MET, THUS T3.5/3.5/D2.0/24HRS.
SYSTEM CURRENTLY UNDER MODERATE SHEAR, HOWEVER, CIMMS INDICATES
DECREASING SHEAR TO THE SOUTH. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHEASTERLY
TRACK BEFORE CURVING IT SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST WITHIN THE NEXT 24
TO 48 HOURS.

FORECASTS:
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 250000 UTC 21.1S 162.9E MOV SSE 06 KT WITH 65 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 251200 UTC 21.6S 162.5E MOV S 04 KT WITH 65 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 260000 UTC 21.9S 162.1E MOV S 03 KT WITH 65 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 261200 UTC 22.0S 161.6E MOV SSW 03 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THIS NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC JASPER WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 242030 UTC OR EARLIER.

[KWT]

That is indeed a big convective blow-up so we may well see some decent strengthening over the next 12-18hrs if it can continue blowing up. Also interesting to see the forecast disagreements at the moment.

[KWT]

Convection was good whilst it blew up but latest imagery shows its pretty much all gone now, indeed I would struggle to call it a TC right now I have to admit given how little convection is left...certainly didn't expect this earlier on though I did think the forecast was very optimistic from the agencies.

[Grifforzer]

Received WTPS01 at 01:17 UTC, 25/03/09 from NFFN
GALE WARNING 042 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 25/0117 UTC 2009 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE JASPER [987HPA] CATEGORY 1 CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 21 DECIMAL 2
SOUTH 162 DECIMAL 9 EAST AT 250000 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 21.2S 162.9E AT 250000 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 13 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE, DECREASING TO 35 KNOTS
IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES
OF CENTRE IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 200 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN
THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 21.3S 162.2E AT 251200 UTC
AND NEAR 21.4S 161.7E AT 260000 UTC.

[HURAKAN]

Looking really bad at the moment. Shear appears to be high.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A4 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 25/0251 UTC 2009 UTC.

CORRECTION TO MOVEMENT...
TROPICAL CYCLONE JASPER [987HPA] CATEGORY 1 CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR
21 DECIMAL 2 SOUTH 162 DECIMAL 9 EAST AT 250000 UTC MOVING
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 03 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT IR/VIS
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 KNOTS CLOSE TO
THE CENTRE, DECREASING TO 35 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. EXPECT
WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 200 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.

LLCC EXPOSED MORE THAN 1 DEG TO NORTH OF DEEP CONVECTION. EFFECTS OF
SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT EVIDENT. OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD TO SOUTH
BUT POOR ELSEWHERE. JASPER IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED WESTWARDS BY A
LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEAR YIELDING
DT=2.0, MET=2.0, PT=2.0. FT BASED ON MET, THUS T2.0/3.0/W1.5/24HRS.
THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY UNDER A 20 KNOT SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON
A WESTERLY TRACK AND WEAKENNING.

FORECASTS:
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 251200 UTC 21.3S 162.2E MOV WSW 04 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 260000 UTC 21.4S 162.0E MOV W 02 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 261200 UTC 21.5S 161.1E MOV W 03 KT WITH 25 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 270000 UTC 21.4S 160.4E MOV W 03 KT WITH 20 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THIS NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC JASPER WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 250830 UTC OR EARLIER.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

WTPS31 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (JASPER) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (JASPER) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 21.1S 163.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S 163.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 21.7S 163.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 21.5S 162.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 20.9S 161.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 21.3S 163.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (JASPER), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. OBSERVATION OF AN EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IN RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY LENDS CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT AGENCY DVORAK T-
NUMBERS RANGING FROM 2.0 TO 3.0. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FOR TC 23P
HAS CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE PREVIOUS WARNING. INCREASING
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS DISPLACED NEARLY ALL DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CYCLONE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
LLCC. THE STEERING LEVEL FOR THE STORM HAS LOWERED AS A CONSEQUENCE
OF THIS SHEAR AND A RESULTANT ONGOING WEAKENING TREND. THEREFORE,
THE STORM IS NOW EXPECTED TO FOLLOW STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY LOW TO MID-
LEVEL FLOW ANALYZED TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO STEER THE LLCC EQUATORWARD BY TAU 12. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WBAR, SUPPORTS THIS
GENERAL TRACK SCENARIO. AS THE STORM TURNS EQUATORWARD, PERSISTENT
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL OFFSET THE FAVORABLE INFLUENCES OF STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND CAUSE THE
SYSTEM TO WEAKEN BELOW THE 35 KNOT WARNING THRESHOLD BY TAU 36.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 251500Z AND 260300Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A5 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 25/0810 UTC 2009 UTC.

***CORRECTION TO CURRENT INTENSITY***
TROPICAL CYCLONE JASPER [995HPA] CATEGORY 1 CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR
21 DECIMAL 1 SOUTH 163 DECIMAL 2 EAST AT 250600 UTC MOVING
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 03 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR/VIS
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO
THE CENTRE, DECREASING FURTHER IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER
33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE.

LLCC EXPOSED AND EFFECTS OF SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT EVIDENT.
JASPER IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED WESTWARDS BY A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE SOUTH. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEAR YIELDING DT=MET=PT=1.5. FT
BASED ON MET, THUS T1.5/3.0/W2.0/24HRS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY UNDER
A 20 KNOT SHEAR. IN THE SHORT TERM, GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A
SOUTHWESTERLY MOVEMENT BEFORE RECURVING THE SYSTEM ON A NORTHWESTERLY
TRACK AND WEAKENING IT FURTHER.

FORECASTS:
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 251800 UTC 21.5S 163.0E MOV SSW 02 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 260600 UTC 21.3S 162.1E MOV WSW 03 KT WITH 25 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 261800 UTC 20.6S 161.1E MOV WNW 03 KT WITH 25 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 270600 UTC 19.8S 160.4E MOV WNW 04 KT WITH 20 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC JASPER
UNLESS RE-DEVELOPMENT OCCURS.

[KWT]

Amazing to see the change in Jasper's fortunes in the forecasts, its gone from being expected to become quite a strong cyclone, to not even existing!