Coral Sea: JASPER - Tropical Cyclone

KWT · #21 Postby **KWT** » Sat Mar 21, 2009 8:36 am

Just looks like a convective mess at this moment, don't think this is going to develop unless it gets its act sorted soon.

#22 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Mar 21, 2009 11:06 am

A lot of unorganized convection.

#23 Postby **Cookie** » Sat Mar 21, 2009 7:09 pm

HURAKAN wrote:
Cookie wrote:is that a low or a pound coin?

Using Eye of the Storm and PowePoint to put a map to the numbers!!!

it was meant as a joke sorry mate

KWT · #24 Postby **KWT** » Sat Mar 21, 2009 7:34 pm

Convection really is just a total mess right now, and unless it can consolidate that convection then nothing will come from it. Still its in an area where if shear does lower then heat content is more then high enough.

KWT · #25 Postby **KWT** » Sun Mar 22, 2009 8:59 am

Still a mass of pretty disorganised convection but the models are trying to develop this system into a cyclone soit does need to be watched, esp as steering currents are forecasted to be light.

#26 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sun Mar 22, 2009 2:55 pm

KWT · #27 Postby **KWT** » Sun Mar 22, 2009 4:04 pm

Still pretty messy at the moment but still a very convectivly active region it has to be said and the ECM still develops it, though not quite as strongly as last run in the first half of the run. With weak steering currents this system won't go anyway fast.

#28 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sun Mar 22, 2009 8:18 pm

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: This message is issued daily for the information of interested parties.
Media are NOT required to broadcast this message.

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
for the Coral Sea West of Longitude 160 East
Issued at 2:30pm on Sunday the 22nd of March 2009

The monsoon trough extends across far northern Cape York Peninsula and the
northern Coral Sea. A low with central pressure approximately 999 hPa lies over
the Coral Sea near 13S 151E. This low is expected to deepen slightly and move
southeast during the next few days.

The probability of this system becoming a tropical cyclone over the next three
days is:

Monday: Low
Tuesday: Moderate
Wednesday: Low

Tropical Cyclone outlooks issued by Brisbane can be accessed through the
Bureau's Home Page http://www.bom.gov.au.

Please note that the Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre issues Tropical Cyclone
Outlooks that cover the Gulf of Carpentaria. Refer to the Northern Region and
Gulf 3 day outlook at http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/tc-outlooks.shtml.

#29 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sun Mar 22, 2009 8:20 pm

#30 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sun Mar 22, 2009 9:43 pm

Accuweather.

KWT · #31 Postby **KWT** » Mon Mar 23, 2009 7:19 am

Most of the deep convection seems to have decayed but it does seem to be getting some sort of rotation going. The ECM still slowly develops it into something and lingers it about in the same area for several days.

#32 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Mar 23, 2009 8:06 am

Looking better.

#33 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Mar 23, 2009 8:06 am

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: This message is issued daily for the information of interested parties.
Media are NOT required to broadcast this message.

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
for the Coral Sea West of Longitude 160 East
Issued at 2:43pm on Monday the 23rd of March 2009

The monsoon trough extends across far northern Cape York Peninsula and the
northern Coral Sea. A low with central pressure approximately 1001 hPa lies well
offshore over the Coral Sea near 14.5S 153.5E. This low is expected to deepen
slightly and drift southeast during the next few days.

The probability of this system becoming a tropical cyclone over the next 72
hours is:

0-24 hours: Low
24-48 hours: Moderate
48-72 hours: Moderate

Tropical Cyclone outlooks issued by Brisbane can be accessed through the
Bureau's Home Page http://www.bom.gov.au.

Please note that the Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre issues Tropical Cyclone
Outlooks that cover the Gulf of Carpentaria. Refer to the Northern Region and
Gulf 3 day outlook at http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/tc-outlooks.shtml.

KWT · #34 Postby **KWT** » Mon Mar 23, 2009 8:10 am

Main convection still seems to be displaced to the east however, so whilst it is looking a little better still needs to do some more before it develops.

#35 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Mar 23, 2009 8:46 am

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.1S 152.7E,
APPROXIMATELY 460 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. RECENT
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SUPPORTS THE
CURRENT LOCATION AND INDICATES WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS AROUND
THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED
POLEWARD OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN AN AREA OF DIVERGENCE AND
MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
VERY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THE AREA. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.

KWT · #36 Postby **KWT** » Mon Mar 23, 2009 8:57 am

That explains why all the convection is displaced away from where any center may try and set-up, shear is displacing the convection.

#37 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Mar 23, 2009 2:14 pm

#38 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Mar 23, 2009 2:15 pm

23/1430 UTC 17.3S 156.2E T1.5/1.5 98P -- Southwest Pacific

#39 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Mar 23, 2009 2:19 pm

Accuweather.

#40 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Mar 23, 2009 2:45 pm

Coral Sea: JASPER - Tropical Cyclone

Re: Re:

Re: Coral Sea: Invest 98P

Re: Coral Sea: Invest 98P

Who is online