SIO: Invest 96S

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SIO: Invest 96S

#1 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Mar 21, 2009 11:07 am

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Looking better.
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#2 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Mar 21, 2009 11:08 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.5S
83.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.6S 85.3E, APPROXIMATELY 680 NM EAST OF
COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF DEEP FLARES OF
CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS, WITH LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
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#3 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Mar 21, 2009 11:09 am

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#4 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Mar 21, 2009 12:29 pm

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Continues to become better organized.
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#5 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Mar 21, 2009 12:30 pm

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.6S
85.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.0S 84.4E, APPROXIMATELY 780 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS FORMATIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH A DEVELOPING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS, WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
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Re: SIO: Invest 96S

#6 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Mar 21, 2009 6:33 pm

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#7 Postby KWT » Sat Mar 21, 2009 7:17 pm

Nice big area of convection that looks pretty deep towards the center of the convective mass. Wouldn't be all that surprised if it does go on to develop over the next few days, so needs watching just in case, though its out in the middle of no where really...
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Re: SIO: Invest 96S

#8 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Mar 21, 2009 9:42 pm

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#9 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:13 pm

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.0S
84.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.3S 82.8E, APPROXIMATELY 120 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS FORMATIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH A DEVELOPING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS, WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
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#10 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Mar 22, 2009 2:54 pm

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#11 Postby KWT » Sun Mar 22, 2009 4:06 pm

Nice decent circular area of convection which is fairly deep, doesn't look far from developing into something though its hard to tell without seeing more data.
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#12 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Mar 23, 2009 8:47 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.0S
81.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.4S 80.0E, APPROXIMATELY 580 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY INDICATES
THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS
STARTED TO BECOME LESS ORGANIZED WITH CONVECTION DISSIPATING TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE LLCC BUT POOR ORGANIZATION OF THE
LLCC AND THE INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE HAMPERING
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO
25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATEDTO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.
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#13 Postby Grifforzer » Tue Mar 24, 2009 2:14 am

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Mauritius Meteorological Services
High Seas Forecast

LOW 1005HPA NEAR 11S 78E.
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