Mozambique Channel: ex-IZILDA - Tropical Disturbance

[HURAKAN]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 17.7S 38.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 280 NM WEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. RECENT
ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING REGION OF CONVECTION
ALONG THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST WITH WEAK CYCLONIC TURNING. A 212301Z
AMSR-E IMAGE SHOWS A BAND OF CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS TO THE NORTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO POOR.

[KWT]

ECM very keen on this one developing and has it moving very slowly indeed towards land, so with at least some model support this needs to be watched, though for now I think its a good 48-72hrs away from doing anything.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

WTXS21 PGTW 231100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN A
200 NM RADIUS OF 18.7S 40.8E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAIL-
ABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE
WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO
30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 230530Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 18.5S 40.7E. THE SYSTEM IS QUASI-STATIONARY.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.3S
37.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.5S 40.7E, APPROXIMATELY 360 NM WEST OF
ANTANANARIVO. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS A RAPIDLY
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IN THE CENTER OF
THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE BUILDING TOWARD THE
CENTER OF THE LLCC WITH TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING IN THE LOW LEVEL. THE
LLCC IS IN VERY FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGH LEVELS
OF OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AVAILABLE, HELPING TO FUEL THE RAPID DEVELOP-
MENT SEEN OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
LLCC IS UNDER THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PROVIDING
DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 231100Z.//
NNNN

[KWT]

Doesn't look all that impressive on the IR imagery but it does look like its developing. ECM still developing it, with it making landfall in Mozambique in about 72hrs time, though there is a lot of uncertainty with regards to this.

[HURAKAN]

Now it really looks like a developing low pressure.

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

Yep that sure does look like a devloping cyclone, wouldn't be at all surprised if thats a tropical cyclone in the next 12-24hrs and I suspect that given the very good set-up around 99S we should see this develop pretty rapidly. The main issue could be land for this system.

[HURAKAN]

Quite explosive convective development.

[HURAKAN]

TPXS12 PGTW 240029

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 99S (MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL)

B. 23/2330Z

C. 20.7S

D. 41.6E

E. FIVE/MET7

F. T2.5/2.5/D2.5/18HRS STT: D1.0/06HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAP OF 0.40 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDS DT OF 2.5. PT AGREES. MET YIELDS AN UNREP 1.5. DBO
DT. CNVCTN HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 03 HOURS
SUGGESTING IMPROVING ORGANIZATION.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
23/1906Z 19.6S 91.2E MMHS


UEHARA

[KWT]

I'm surprised this isn't a TC already to be honest given the LLCC we have and the deep convection we have. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see some rapid development from this, esp given this region has seen explosive development before.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Mtotec reporting NR11. http://www.mtotec.com/

[HURAKAN]

[Grifforzer]

NR 11 now, Hurakan you are right

WTIO30 FMEE 240633
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/11/20082009
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 11
2.A POSITION 2009/03/24 AT 0600 UTC :
20.8S / 41.7E
(TWENTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 300 SE: 100 SO: 350 NO: 300
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 450 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/03/24 18 UTC: 21.6S/41.8E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP.
DEPRESSION.
24H: 2009/03/25 06 UTC: 22.1S/41.5E, MAX WIND=035KT , MODERATE TROP.
STORM.
36H: 2009/03/25 18 UTC: 22.3S/41.1E, MAX WIND=045KT , SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
48H: 2009/03/26 06 UTC: 22.5S/40.8E, MAX WIND=055KT , SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
60H: 2009/03/26 18 UTC: 22.7S/40.6E, MAX WIND=065KT , TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
72H: 2009/03/27 06 UTC: 22.9S/40.0E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE SYSTEM IS ALWAYS SHOWING A MOONSON DEPRESSION STRUCTURE OF WINDS
WITH
STRONGEST WINDS FAR FROM THE CENTER.
CONVECTION IS ORGANIZED INTO TWO LARGE CLUSTERS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITINS ARE FAVORABLE TO INTENSIFICATION, THE SYSTEM
REMAINS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, WITH A GOOD POLAR INLFLOW IN THE
FIRST PART OF PERIOD.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK PROGRESSIVELY MORE SOUTHWARDS THEN
SLOWING DOWN EAST SOUTH-EASTWARDS

[HURAKAN]

WTXS31 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (TWENTY-FOUR) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTH IO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 21.1S 41.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S 41.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 21.4S 41.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 21.7S 41.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 21.8S 41.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 21.8S 40.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 21.2S 41.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (TWENTY-FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR HAS TRACKED
SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION FLARING NEAR AN ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THIS LLCC LIES IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR NEAR THE
CENTER OF AN UPPER LEVEL MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE. ADDITIONALLY,
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE HAS INTRODUCED A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW
MECHANISM. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK VALUES OF 2.5 AND 2.0
FROM PGTW AND KNES, RESPECTIVELY. A SHIP JUST TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC
ALSO REPORTED 30-KNOT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 232200Z. SEA SURFACE TEMPERA-
TURES AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ARE HIGH IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AND,
ALONG WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, WILL ENABLE FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. TC 24S IS CURRENTLY IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT
12-24 HOURS BEFORE IT BEGINS TO SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE WEST. THIS
WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 231051Z MAR 09
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 231100 ) MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
242100Z AND 250900Z.

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

Not moving very fast from the looks of things but given the weak steering currents thats not surprising, so its got plenty of time to strengthen in a pretty favorable region.

ECM suggests this will become strong but sta away from land but much depends on how much westerly motion it can gain.

[HURAKAN]

917
WTIO30 FMEE 241215

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/11/20082009
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11

2.A POSITION 2009/03/24 AT 1200 UTC :
21.6S / 41.2E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL TWO
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 200 SE: 100 SO: 250 NO: 200

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 350 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/03/25 00 UTC: 22.3S/41.1E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
24H: 2009/03/25 12 UTC: 22.6S/41.0E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
36H: 2009/03/26 00 UTC: 22.9S/40.7E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
48H: 2009/03/26 12 UTC: 22.9S/40.4E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
60H: 2009/03/27 00 UTC: 23.0S/40.1E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
72H: 2009/03/27 12 UTC: 23.1S/39.8E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5-.
THE SYSTEM IS ALWAYS SHOWING A MOONSON DEPRESSION STRUCTURE OF WINDS
WITH
STRONGEST WINDS FAR FROM THE CENTER.
CONVECTION IS NOW BETTER ORGANIZED, AND HAS BUILT OVER THE CENTER.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITINS ARE FAVORABLE TO INTENSIFICATION, THE SYSTEM
REMAINS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, WITH A GOOD POLAR INLFLOW IN THE
FIRST PART OF PERIOD.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK PROGRESSIVELY MORE SLOWLY SOUTHWARDS
THEN MORE EAST SOUTH-EASTWARDS UP TU TAU24 WITH THE REBUILT OF HIGHS
AT
MIDDLE LEVEL, REMAINING OVER FAVORABLE SST.=

[KWT]

Looking at the forecast it seems to be suggesting some pretty quick strengthening over the next 48hrs, though it then evens out somewhat.