SIO: JADE - Moderate Tropical Storm (26S)

[Chacor]

As far as MF are concerned, Jade remains a TD right now.

WTIO30 FMEE 110011

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 28/12/20082009
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12 (EX-JADE)

2.A POSITION 2009/04/11 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.3S / 55.4E
(TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL FOUR
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 22 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /W 0.5/18 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 90 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 180 SE: 470 SO: 180 NO: 090

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/04/11 12 UTC: 30.9S/57.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
24H: 2009/04/12 00 UTC: 36.0S/58.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
36H: 2009/04/12 12 UTC: 40.0S/62.2E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
48H: 2009/04/13 00 UTC: 45.9S/67.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, DISSIPATING.


2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=2.5, CI=2.5
IN RELATIONSHIP WITH THE OWN QUICK MOTION OF THE SYSTEM, RELATIVE
WINDSHEAR HAS WEAKENED AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS CLOSER AGAIN TO THE
LLCC ; LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOW ONLY PARTIALLY EXPOSED.
JADE IS HOWEVER PENETRATING IN THE EXTRATROPICAL AREA AND ITS COOLER
AND
COOLER OCEAN TEMPERATURES AND WILL SOON BEGINNING ITS TRANSITION.
ASCAT 1751Z SWATH SHOWS AS FORECASTED GALE FORCE 35/40KT UNFLAGED
WINDS
IN THE EASTERN SECTOR DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
HIGH PRESSURES AND THE OWN MOTION OF THE SYSTEM.
WINDS SHOULD TEMPORARELY STRENGHTEN ON AND AFTER THE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BUT THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BEYOND TAU 48/60
MERGING
IN A POLAR TROUGH.=