SIO: JADE - Moderate Tropical Storm (26S)

[HURAKAN]

31/0230 UTC 11.9S 73.8E T1.0/1.0 95S -- Southwest Indian

[HURAKAN]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.5S 73.7E,
APPROXIMATELY 375 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 310439Z TRMM PASS INDICATE AN AREA OF
WEAK TROUGHING IS BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE TOWARDS A CLOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO
INCREASE OVER THE LLCC IN THE PAST 6 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS, PROVIDING GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO POOR.

[cycloneye]

ABIO10 PGTW 311800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/311800ZMAR2009-011800ZAPR2009//
RMKS/
SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.5S
73.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.3S 70.1E, APPROXIMATELY 380 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A
310439Z TRMM PASS INDICATE AN AREA OF WEAK TROUGHING IS BEGINNING TO
CONSOLIDATE TOWARDS A CLOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
311343Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS AN OPEN WAVE ON THE SURFACE WITH 15 TO
20KT WINDS ON THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE WAVE. CONVECTION HAS
CONTINUED TO INCREASE OVER THE LLCC IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS, PROVIDING GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.

[theavocado]

Starting to look more like an open wave...

ABIO10 PGTW 312200
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/312200ZMAR2009-011800ZAPR2009//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.3S
70.1E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: DISSIPATED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1).
FORECAST TEAM: DELTA//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

WELCOME!

[Fadil]

interesting

[Grifforzer]

Mauritius Meteorological Services
High Sea Forecast
0:00 AM UTC April 1 2009
=====================

LOW 1004 HPA NEAR 12S 70E.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

http://www.mtotec.com/

Mtotec reporting NR12.

[Chacor]

The RSMC, Meteo France, is not reporting an active system.

[HURAKAN]

The RSMC, Meteo France, is not reporting an active system.

Yep. But I don't know why or how Mtotec updates the information before it becomes available in Meteo France.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Mtotec

[HURAKAN]

Solid convection over the center.

[HURAKAN]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.2S 58.2E,
APPROXIMATELY 615 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER AND
A DEVELOPING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. A 031405Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS
AN ELONGATED SURFACE CIRCULATION WITH A CONCENTRATION OF 15KT WINDS
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.

[theavocado]

Soon to hit the streets, was upgraded to a poor at 1800Z and now its upgraded to a fair. NOGAPS and GFS don't seem to develop it much, but ECMWF has a large system in the area at TAU 72 (hard to tell if it's 95S or the circ around 7S and 75E). With the approaching MJO westerly wind burst over Africa, there is a lot of potential in this area in the next few days.

ABIO10 PGTW 032200
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/032200Z-041800ZAPR2009//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.2S
58.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.2S 57.6E, APPROXIMATELY 605 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE
BANDING AND POCKETS OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEVELOPED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH A DEVELOPING
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. A 031405Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS AN
ELONGATED SURFACE CIRCULATION WITH A CONCENTRATION OF 15 TO 20KT
WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. 24 HOUR PRESSURE
TRENDS IN THE AREA INDICATE A 2MB DROP. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
FAIR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO FAIR.
FORECAST TEAM: DELTA//
NNNN

(edditted four spelin)

[HURAKAN]

WTXS21 PGTW 040030
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.2S 57.6E TO 12.9S 53.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 040000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.3S 57.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.2S
57.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.3S 57.0E, APPROXIMATELY 600 NM NORTH
OF LA REUNION. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RAPIDLY
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEVELOPED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ASSOCIATED
WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A DEVELOPING EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL. A 031841Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN ORGANIZED SURFACE
CIRCULATION. 24 HOUR PRESSURE TRENDS IN THE AREA INDICATE A 2MB
DROP. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE
SYSTEM IS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE IS
THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH SLOWLY
STEERING THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
050030Z.
//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

[Chacor]

We do have 12R now.

WTIO30 FMEE 040606

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/12/20082009
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 12

2.A POSITION 2009/04/04 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.1S / 56.6E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : QUASI-STATIONARY

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1004 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/04/04 18 UTC: 12.1S/55.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2009/04/05 06 UTC: 13.1S/54.9E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
36H: 2009/04/05 18 UTC: 14.2S/54.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2009/04/06 06 UTC: 15.4S/53.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2009/04/06 18 UTC: 17.2S/53.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2009/04/07 06 UTC: 18.8S/53.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI=1.5
DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXISTS SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING AND HAS CLEARLY
IMPROVED.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH A
EFFICIENT POLEWARD LOW LEVEL INFLOW ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES REBUILDING IN THE SOUTHWEST. EVEN IT DOESN'T
EXIST POLEWARDS, MONSOON FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON ESTABLISHING
WEST OF 55E ON AND AFTER MONDAY.
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVOURABLE WITH A WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR
IN THE AREA AND A GOOD POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW (CF CIRRUS ARC
EXISTING 350NM IN THE SOTHWEST).
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL OUTLOW (EQUATORWARD) IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ON
SUNDAY BUT SHOULD NOT BE SO EFFICIENT AS THE POLEWARD ONE.
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE DRIVED BY THE NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW
GENERATED BY THE MERIDIAN MID LEVEL RIDGE EXISTING EAST OF THE SYSTEM,
STRETCHING ALONG 63E AXIS.
ON AND AFTER TAU 60, SYSTEM SHOULD BE CONSTRAINTED BY NORTHWESTARLY
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR.=