SIO: JADE - Moderate Tropical Storm (26S)

[Chacor]

This is not Tropical Cyclone 12R yet. Please change this; a Tropical Cyclone indicates winds of 65 kt in this basin. Still a Tropical Disturbance.

WTIO30 FMEE 041214

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/12/20082009
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 12

2.A POSITION 2009/04/04 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.3S / 56.0E
(TWELVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/04/05 00 UTC: 13.3S/54.6E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
24H: 2009/04/05 12 UTC: 14.3S/53.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
36H: 2009/04/06 00 UTC: 15.5S/52.4E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2009/04/06 12 UTC: 17.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2009/04/07 00 UTC: 18.7S/51.8E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
72H: 2009/04/07 12 UTC: 20.2S/51.9E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI=2.0
DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXISTS SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING AND HAS CLEARLY
IMPROVED.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH A
EFFICIENT POLEWARD LOW LEVEL INFLOW ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES REBUILDING IN THE SOUTHWEST, TRANSEQUATORIAL
MONSOON FLOW IS WEAK.
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVOURABLE WITH A WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR
IN THE AREA AND A GOOD POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND A BUILDING
EQUATORWARD ONE (HOWEVER NOT SO EFFICIENT AS THE POLEWARD ONE).
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE DRIVED BY THE NORTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW
GENERATED BY THE MERIDIAN MID LEVEL RIDGE EXISTING EAST OF THE
SYSTEM.
AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT FOR THE EXPECTED TRACK.
SOME OF THEM FORECAST A DIRECT SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK TOWARDS THE
NORTHEASTERN MALAGASY COASTLINE (LANDFALL WITHIN TAU 36 TO TAU 48)
AND SOME OF THEM FORECAST A SOUTHWARDS RECURVE TRACK ON AND AFTER TAU 24
TO TAU 36 AND A TRANSIT LINE BETWEEN MALAGASY AND LA REUNION.
THIS SCENARIO IS STABLE SINCE SEVERAL RUNS OF ECMWF MODEL, THAT'S THE
PHILOSOPHY FOLLOWING BY LA REUNION RSMC.
ON AND AFTER TAU 60, SYSTEM SHOULD BE CONSTRAINTED BY NORTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR.=

[cycloneye]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 04 APR 2009 Time : 133000 UTC
Lat : 11:46:52 S Lon : 55:49:07 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 / 992.2mb/ 43.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.8 2.7 2.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -32.8C Cloud Region Temp : -49.4C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.38 ARC in LT GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.44 ARC in LT GRAY
at Lat: 10:46:47 S Lon: 55:36:36 E

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.2T/hour
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... t/adt.html

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Track conflict between JTWC and Meteo France.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Mtotec

[cycloneye]

SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (TWENTYSIX) WARNING NR 002
WTXS32 PGTW 042100
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (TWENTYSIX) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 13.0S 55.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.0S 55.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 14.3S 54.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 15.3S 52.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 16.2S 51.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 17.1S 50.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 13.3S 55.1E.
TC 26S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 605 NM NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO,
MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
O6 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS IMPRESSIVE LOW TO MID-LEVEL BANDING, YET ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IS SOMEWHAT
DISORGANIZED AND WARRANTS FURTHER CONSOLIDATION. NONETHELESS A
DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM PGTW SUPPORTS AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM LIES UNDER A BUILDING
MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). VWS
SHOULD THEN REMAIN LOW THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AS THIS ANTI-
CYCLONE CONTINUES TO BUILD. DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS OVERHEAD WILL
ALSO SUPPORT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT WILL
TRANSIT TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWEST-
WARD TOWARDS THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
STRONG DEEP LAYER NORTHEASTERLIES. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE AS WELL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 041800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z AND 052100Z.

[HURAKAN]

213
WTIO30 FMEE 050013 RRA

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/12/20082009
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12

2.A POSITION 2009/04/05 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.6S / 54.4E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 020 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 020

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/04/05 12 UTC: 14.8S/52.8E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
24H: 2009/04/06 00 UTC: 16.1S/51.4E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
..
36H: 2009/04/06 12 UTC: 17.8S/50.5E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
48H: 2009/04/07 00 UTC: 19.2S/50.1E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
60H: 2009/04/07 12 UTC: 21.0S/50.0E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
72H: 2009/04/08 00 UTC: 22.3S/50.3E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI=2.5

[HURAKAN]

[Chacor]

MF's advisory before retransmission cut out the additional info:

DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS CLEARLY IMPROVED, WITH TWO CURVED BAND
BUILDING ON EACH PART OF THE CENTER.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH A
EFFICIENT POLEWARD LOW LEVEL INFLOW ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES REBUILDING IN THE SOUTHWEST, TRANSEQUATORIAL
MONSOON FLOW IS WEAK.
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVOURABLE WITH A WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR
IN THE AREA AND A GOOD POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND A BUILDING
EQUATORWARD ONE.

SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE DRIVED BY THE NORTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW
GENERATED BY THE MERIDIAN MID LEVEL RIDGE EXISTING EAST OF THE
SYSTEM.
AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT FOR THE EXPECTED TRACK.
SOME OF THEM FORECAST A DIRECT SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK TOWARDS THE
NORTHEASTERN MALAGASY COASTLINE (LANDFALL WITHIN TAU 36) BUT DE MAIN
PART OF THEM FORECAST NOW A SOUTHWARDS RECURVE TRACK ON AND AFTER TAU 24
AND A TRANSIT LINE BETWEEN MALAGASY AND LA REUNION.
THIS SCENARIO IS STABLE SINCE SEVERAL RUNS OF ECMWF MODEL, THAT'S THE
PHILOSOPHY FOLLOWING BY LA REUNION RSMC.
ON AND AFTER TAU 60, SYSTEM SHOULD BE CONSTRAINTED BY NORTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR.=

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Looking really good.

[HURAKAN]

[Chacor]

Has been named "Jade".

WTIO30 FMEE 050647

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/12/20082009
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JADE)

2.A POSITION 2009/04/05 AT 0600 UTC :
13.4S / 52.7E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 40 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 030 SE: 060 SO: 060 NO: 030

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/04/05 18 UTC: 15.0S/51.1E, MAX WIND=045KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM.
24H: 2009/04/06 06 UTC: 16.3S/50.3E, MAX WIND=045KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM.
36H: 2009/04/06 18 UTC: 18.0S/49.6E, MAX WIND=045KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2009/04/07 06 UTC: 19.2S/49.3E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2009/04/07 18 UTC: 20.7S/49.2E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2009/04/08 06 UTC: 21.6S/49.3E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI=2.5+
SYSTEM NAMED BY MADAGASCAR. CENTRE RELOCATED 60 NM IN THE WEST-NORTH-WEST,
THANKS TO RECENT MMICROWAVE DATA F17/0141Z, WINDSAT 0225Z, TRMM/0313Z.
THSES IMAGERIES SHOW A NICE ORGANIZATION IN 37 GHZ, BUT STILL ASCATTERED
DEEP CONVECTION AT 85 GHZ.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH A
EFFICIENT POLEWARD LOW LEVEL INFLOW ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES REBUILDING IN THE SOUTHWEST.
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVOURABLE WITH A WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR
IN THE AREA AND A GOOD POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND A BUILDING
EQUATORWARD ONE. HOWEVER WITH THE FORECASTED TRACK, THE SYSTEM GETS
CLOSER TO MADAGASCAR. THE VICINITY OF COASTS SHOULD HAMPER THE
INTENSIFICATION.

SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE DRIVEN BY THE NORTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW
GENERATED BY THE MID LEVEL RIDGE EXISTING EAST OF THE SYSTEM.
AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE EXPECTED TRACK.
SOME OF THEM FORECAST A DIRECT SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK TOWARDS THE
NORTHEASTERN MALAGASY COASTLINE (LANDFALL WITHIN TAU 24) BUT MOST OF
THEM FORECAST NOW A SOUTHWARDS RECURVE TRACK ON AND AFTER TAU 24 BETWEEN
MADAGASCAR AND LA REUNION.
THIS SCENARIO IS STABLE SINCE SEVERAL ECMWF MODEL RUNS. THIS IS THE
ONE CHOSEN BY LA REUNION RSMC.
ON AND AFTER TAU 60, SYSTEM SHOULD BE CONSTRAINTED BY NORTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR.=

[HURAKAN]

Looks like it's organizing faster than expected.

[cycloneye]

WTXS31 PGTW 052100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (JADE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (JADE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 14.3S 51.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S 51.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 15.2S 50.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 15.6S 49.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 16.5S 48.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 17.5S 48.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 14.5S 51.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (JADE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385 NM
NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WRAP ABOUT THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS TC 26S
TURNED SOUTHWESTWARD AND HAS SLOWED AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN
COAST OF MADAGASCAR. A RECENT 051459Z WINDSAT PASS SHOWS AN EYE-LIKE
FEATURE IN THE 37GHZ MICROWAVE BAND. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE LLCC. THE
SYSTEM REMAINS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. TC 26S IS
CURRENTLY BEING STEERED ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST, AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
TRACK TOWARDS MADAGASCAR, MAKING LANDFALL NEAR TAU 12. GOOD
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH LANDFALL. TERRAIN OF NORTHERN
MADAGASCAR WILL LEAD TO QUICK DISSIPATION THROUGH TAU 48. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
060900Z AND 062100Z.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

825
WTIO30 FMEE 060017

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 8/12/20082009
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JADE)

2.A POSITION 2009/04/06 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.6S / 50.3E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /D 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 975 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 45 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 160 SE: 250 SO: 250 NO: 160
50 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 060 NO: 060

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/04/06 12 UTC: 16.5S/49.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
24H: 2009/04/07 00 UTC: 17.6S/49.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, OVERLAND.
36H: 2009/04/07 12 UTC: 19.0S/48.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, OVERLAND.
48H: 2009/04/08 00 UTC: 20.3S/48.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, OVERLAND.
60H: 2009/04/08 12 UTC: 21.0S/48.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, OVERLAND.
72H: 2009/04/09 00 UTC: 21.7S/48.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI=4.0
JADE IS MAKING LANDFALL OVER THE PENINSULA OF MASOALA SOUTH OF
ANTALAHA.
IT KEEPS ON TRACKING CLOSE TO THE EASTERN MALAGASY COASTS WITHIN THE
NEXT
48 HOURS , PROBABLY OVERLAND THEREFORE WEAKENING RAPIDLY.
STRONGEST WINDS EXTEND IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE
GRADIENT
EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.

AVAILABLE NWP MODELS KEEP ON DISAGREE ABOUT THE FORECASTED TRACKS OF
JADE

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]