SIO: JADE - Moderate Tropical Storm (26S)

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#41 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Apr 05, 2009 11:09 pm

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Re: SIO: JADE - Severe Tropical Storm (26S) - Landfall

#42 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Apr 06, 2009 5:32 am

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Re: SIO: JADE - Severe Tropical Storm (26S) - Landfall

#43 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Apr 06, 2009 5:33 am

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WTXS31 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (JADE) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (JADE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 15.6S 50.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 50.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 16.7S 48.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 17.7S 48.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 18.9S 47.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 20.1S 47.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 15.9S 49.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (JADE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265 NM
NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT JADE HAS MOVED OVER COASTAL
MADAGASCAR AND IS BEGINNING TO LOSE SOME OF THE DEEPER CONVECTION
OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 26S IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
OVER MADAGASCAR THROUGH TAU 48 WITH CONTINUED WEAKENING THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT JADE IS LOCATED UNDER
THE AXIS OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PROVIDING EXCELLENT OUTFLOW TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 26S IS CURRENTLY BEING
STEERED ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE SOUTHEAST. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE EAST
ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO TURN SOUTHWARD AROUND TAU 36. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
062100Z AND 070900Z.//
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#44 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Apr 06, 2009 5:37 am

535
WTIO30 FMEE 060634

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 9/12/20082009
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JADE)

2.A POSITION 2009/04/06 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.8S / 49.8E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/4.0 /W 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 977 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 45 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 160 SE: 250 SO: 250 NO: 160
50 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 060 NO: 060

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/04/06 18 UTC: 16.5S/48.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, OVERLAND.
24H: 2009/04/07 06 UTC: 17.7S/48.3E, MAX WIND=020KT, OVERLAND.
36H: 2009/04/07 18 UTC: 19.1S/48.1E, MAX WIND=020KT, OVERLAND.
48H: 2009/04/08 06 UTC: 20.3S/48.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING.
60H: 2009/04/08 18 UTC: 21.0S/48.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING.
72H: 2009/04/09 06 UTC: 21.7S/48.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=3.5 AND CI=4.0
JADE HAS CROSSED EARLY THIS MORNING THE MASAOLA PENINSULA. THE CENTER
HAS
THEN MOVED BACK OVER WATER SOUTH OF MAROANTSERA. IT IS CURRENTLY
MAKING
A SECOND LANDFALL BETWEEN RANTABE AND MANANARA.

IT KEEPS ON TRACKING CLOSE TO THE EASTERN MALAGASY COASTS WITHIN THE
NEXT
48 HOURS , PROBABLY OVERLAND THEREFORE WEAKENING RAPIDLY.

00Z RUN OF THE FRENCH MODEL ALADIN THAT HAS MADE A GOOD JOB UNTIL NOW
FOR
JADE'S TRACK FORECAST, MAINTAINS THE SYSTEM OVERLAND WITHIN THE NEXT
THREE DAYS. CONSEQUENTLY, OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
WESTWARDS
AND ON THIS TRACK JADE COULD COMPLETLY BEEN DISSIPATED WITHIN THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

HOWEVER IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTICE THAT A SMALL DEVIATION OF THE
FORECAST
TRACK TOWARDS A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT COULD BRING BACK THE CENTER
OF
WATER WITH A POSSIBLE REINTENSIFICATION.=

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Re: SIO: JADE - Severe Tropical Storm (26S) - Landfall

#45 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Apr 06, 2009 6:53 am

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Quite a large cyclone.
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#46 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Apr 06, 2009 9:13 am

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#47 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Apr 06, 2009 9:13 am

120
WTIO30 FMEE 061240

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 10/12/20082009
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 12 (EX-JADE)

2.A POSITION 2009/04/06 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.3S / 49.4E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL FOUR
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : /W
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE :
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SO: 070 NO: 070

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 750 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/04/07 00 UTC: 17.5S/48.9E, MAX WIND=020KT, OVERLAND.
24H: 2009/04/07 12 UTC: 19.2S/48.3E, MAX WIND=020KT, OVERLAND.
36H: 2009/04/08 00 UTC: 20.3S/47.9E, MAX WIND=020KT, OVERLAND.
48H: 2009/04/08 12 UTC: 21.6S/47.5E, MAX WIND=015KT, DISSIPATING.
60H: 2009/04/09 00 UTC: 22.4S/47.3E, MAX WIND=015KT, DISSIPATING.
72H: 2009/04/09 12 UTC: 22.9S/47.6E, MAX WIND=015KT, DISSIPATING.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
OVERLAND

JADE HAS CROSSED EARLY THIS MORNING THE MASAOLA PENINSULA. THE CENTER
HAS
THEN MOVED BACK OVER WATER SOUTH OF MAROANTSERA TO MAKE A SECOND
LANDFALL BETWEEN RANTABE AND MANANARA AROUND 06Z.

STEERED BY A NORTHNORTHEASTERLY FLOW GIVEN BY THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
LOCATED
TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM (AROUND 60E), IT SHOULD TAKE A MORE
SOUTHWARDS
COMPONENT WITHIN THE NEXT HOURS.

00Z RUN SHOW A QUIT STRONG SPREAD FOR THE TRACK FORECAST. NGP AND
GFDN
BRING THE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MADAGASCAR AND AT THE OPPOSITE, ECMWF AND UKMO BRING THE CENTER CLOSE
TO
THE EASTERN COAST AND FINALLY MOVE IT BACK OVER WATER AROUND THURSDAY
...
PRESENT FORECAST
IS BASED ON A GLOBAL CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE NWP MODELS AND ON
THIS
TRACK THE SYSTEM STAY OVER LAND AND COULD DISSIPATE WITHIN THE
FORECAST
PERIOD

HOWEVER IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTICE THAT THERE IS A STRONGER THAN USUAL
UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FORECAST TRACK. IT IS NOT UNLIKELY
THAT
THE SYSTEM COULD MOVE BACK OVER WATER WITHIN THE NEXT 72 HOURS NEAR
THE
EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR.=
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#48 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Apr 06, 2009 3:22 pm

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#49 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Apr 06, 2009 7:57 pm

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Re: SIO: ex-JADE - Overland Depression - Landfall

#50 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Apr 06, 2009 8:37 pm

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WTXS31 PGTW 062100
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (JADE) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (JADE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 17.3S 49.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S 49.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 18.9S 48.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 20.8S 47.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 17.7S 48.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (JADE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM NORTH-
EAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST O6 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 061638Z SSMI/S IMAGE INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO
TRACK FURTHER INLAND OVER ROUGH TERRAIN AND WEAKEN, ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE HAS REMAINED INTACT WITH A FAIRLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULAT-
ION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE SATELLITE
SIGNATURE AND 06/12Z OBSERVATIONS FROM FMMS SHOWING 27-31 KNOT
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS. TC 26S IS FORECAST TO TRACK INCREASINGLY
SOUTHWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AND TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU
24 BUT QUICKLY DIVERGES WITH THE UK MET OFFICE AND GFS MODELS
INDICATING A SHARP RE-CURVATURE AND AN UNLIKELY INTENSIFICATION
TREND. NOGAPS, GFDN, AND WBAR INDICATE A MORE REALISTIC WEAKENING
TREND AND CONTINUED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER LAND. THE
REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY TRACK BACK OVER WATER BUT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 35 KNOT INTENSITY. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING
CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z
IS 12 FEET.//
NNNN
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#51 Postby Chacor » Tue Apr 07, 2009 5:54 am

Jade survived Madagascar and is now a moderate tropical storm, expected to restrengthen.

WTIO30 FMEE 070629

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 13/12/20082009
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JADE)

2.A POSITION 2009/04/07 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.1S / 49.1E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL ONE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 420 SE: 500 SO: NO:

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/04/07 18 UTC: 20.7S/49.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
24H: 2009/04/08 06 UTC: 21.3S/48.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
36H: 2009/04/08 18 UTC: 21.8S/48.6E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2009/04/09 06 UTC: 22.3S/48.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2009/04/09 18 UTC: 23.0S/48.2E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2009/04/10 06 UTC: 23.7S/48.0E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.0.
THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED IN THE EAST.
THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION HAS JUST MOVED BACK OVER WATER DURING
THE LAST HOUR SOUTH TO TAMATAVE ON A TRACK SOUTH TO
SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARDS.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE TO INTENSIFICATION DURING
THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITH A GOOD POLAR OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AGAIN OVER SEAS, BEFORE THE DEFAVORABLE EFFECTS OF WESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR UP TO TAU 36.

THE SOUTHWARDS TRACK IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AS THE SUBTROPICAL
HIGHS REBUILT SOUTH TO MADAGASCAR=
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#52 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Apr 07, 2009 7:08 am

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#53 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Apr 07, 2009 7:48 am

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#54 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Apr 07, 2009 11:20 am

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Re: SIO: JADE - Moderate Tropical Storm

#55 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Apr 07, 2009 11:20 am

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SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (JADE) WARNING NR 007
WTXS31 PGTW 071500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (JADE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 20.3S 49.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S 49.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 21.5S 48.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 22.6S 48.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 23.5S 48.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 24.6S 48.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 20.6S 49.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (JADE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD
AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST O6 HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
HAS TRACKED BACK OVER WATER AND DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO
BUILD NEAR THE CENTER DUE TO STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES AND FMEE REFLECT A 30 TO 35 KNOT
SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SKIRT THE EAST COAST OF
MADAGASCAR WHILE MAKING MODEST INTENSITY GAINS IN WARM WATERS AND
UNDER LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THROUGH THE FIRST 24
HOURS. AFTER TAU 24 EXCESSIVE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL RAPIDLY
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS
8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z AND 081500Z.
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#56 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Apr 07, 2009 12:47 pm

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Re: SIO: JADE - Moderate Tropical Storm

#57 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Apr 07, 2009 2:09 pm

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#58 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Apr 07, 2009 2:10 pm

428
WTIO30 FMEE 071839 CCA
*************** CORRECTIVE **************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 15/12/20082009
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JADE)

2.A POSITION 2009/04/07 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.8S / 49.1E
(TWENTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL ONE
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 40 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 350 SE: 450 SO: 200 NO: 050

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/04/08 06 UTC: 21.8S/48.7E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
24H: 2009/04/08 18 UTC: 22.5S/48.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
36H: 2009/04/09 06 UTC: 23.3S/48.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
48H: 2009/04/09 18 UTC: 24.1S/48.1E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
60H: 2009/04/10 06 UTC: 24.8S/48.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
72H: 2009/04/10 18 UTC: 25.4S/48.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.0

AFTER A FEW HOURS WHERE IT WAS ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO PROVIDE A DVORAK
ANALYSIS OVER THE SYSTEM BUT WHERE IT WAS SHOWING SOME GALE FORCE
WINDS
OVER A LARGE AREA WITHIN THE EASTERN SEMI CIRCLE (CF. TODAY'S
QUICKSCAT
AND ASCAT PASS), A NICE CURCED BAND HAS MAINTAINED SINCE 15 TU IN THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCL
E.

AT 18 TU, THE SYSTEM SHOWS A WHITE BAND AT 0.5O ON A LOG 10 SPIRAL,
THAT
GIVES A DT AT 3.0.

THE SYSTEM STILL TRACKS SOUTHWARD OVER THE LAST HOURS UNDER THE
STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE MID LAVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED IN THE EAST.
THE SOUTHWARDS TRACK IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN TOMORROW AS THE
SUBTROPICAL
HIGHS REBUILT TEMPORALY SOUTH TO MADAGASCAR

AS THE SYSTEM IS BACK OVER QUIT WARM WATER, STRENGHENING IS ON THE
WAY.
HOWEVER, DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF LAND AND A GRADUAL DETERIORATION OF
THE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, INTENSIFICATION SHOULD BE LIMITED
(GRADUALLY
STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY SHEAR)=
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HURAKAN
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#59 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Apr 07, 2009 5:55 pm

Image

07/2030 UTC 21.1S 48.9E T3.0/3.0 JADE -- Southwest Indian
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#60 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Apr 07, 2009 7:45 pm

838
WTIO30 FMEE 080041 CCA
*************** CORRECTIVE **************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 16/12/20082009
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JADE)

2.A POSITION 2009/04/08 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.4S / 48.7E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL SEVEN
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 987 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 40 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 250 SE: 400 SO: 200 NO: 110

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/04/08 12 UTC: 22.3S/48.2E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
24H: 2009/04/09 00 UTC: 22.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, OVERLAND.
36H: 2009/04/09 12 UTC: 23.5S/47.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, OVERLAND.
48H: 2009/04/10 00 UTC: 24.3S/47.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
60H: 2009/04/10 12 UTC: 25.6S/48.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
72H: 2009/04/11 00 UTC: 27.3S/51.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.5-

CONVECTION WRAPPED 0.8 ON A LOG 10 SPIRAL. LOWER ACCURACY ON PRESENT
FIX
THAT HAS BEEN MADE MAINLY WITH IR MET7 IMAGERY.

UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
LOCATED
IN THE EAST.
AND THE REBUILT OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGHS SOUTH TO MADAGASCAR, TRACKS
HAS
TAKEN A MORE SOUTHSOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
ON
THIS TRACK, SYSTEM SHOULD MAKE A THIRD LANDFALL THIS EVENING OR LATER
TONIGHT WITHIN THE AREA BETWEEN MANANJARY AND FARAFANGANA OR STAY
VERY
CLOSE TO THE CO
ASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN MADAGASCAR.

FRIDAY, A DEEP MID-LAT TROUGH ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND JADE
SHOULD
BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. BY
THAT
TIME, SYSTEM SHOULD ON A WEAKENING TREND WITHIN A WESTERLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT AND A POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH LAND. EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION COULD BE ON TH
E WAY SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST.

PRESENT TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON A GLOBAL CONSENSUS OF ALL
AVAILABLE
NWP MODELS FROM THE 12Z RUN THAT SHOW SOME QUIT GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
THE
GENERAL PHILOSOPHY. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD AND THE
OUTLIER
ONE IS THE UKMET THAT BRING THE SYSTEM EASTWARDS FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME
AND
ACCORDING TO
ALL THE SCENARII SHOWN BY THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM, THE
UKMO
SOLUTION SEEMS RATHER UNLIKELY.=
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