SPAC: LIN - Tropical Cyclone

[Chacor]

JTWC:

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.1S 178.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 235 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI. RECENT
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
EVIDENT IN A 020608Z QUIKSCAT PASS AND A 021332Z AMSR-E IMAGE.
STRONG WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW EQUATORWARD AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
POLEWARD OF THE LLCC ARE AIDING DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE. THE
LLCC LIES IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR NEAR THE AXIS OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. STRONG EQUATORWARD AND IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ARE ALSO EVIDENT IN RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. BECAUSE
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS JUST BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

Fiji:

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Apr 03/0205 UTC 2009 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14F [1002HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5S
178.8E AT 030000 UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT
VIS/EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS 25 KNOTS
WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE, POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 30 TO 35
KNOTS IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

ONE LLCC LOCATED NORTH OF FIJI AND SECOND CENTRE JUST SOUTH OF
FUTUNA. COMPLEX SYSTEM TRYING TO CONSOLIDATE. DEEP CONVECTION OVER
LLCC WEAKENED PAST 6 HOURS DUE DIURNAL INFLUENCE. ORGANISATION STILL
POOR THOUGH BANDING TRYING TO DEVELOP JUST SOUTH OF FIRST CENTRE AND
EXTENDING TO SECOND LLCC. TD14F LIES IN AN AREA OF LOW SHEAR IN A
DIFLUENT REGION VERY CLOSE TO THE 250 HPA SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. SST
AROUND 28 DEGREES CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.3 WRAP YIELDING
DT=1.5. MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT, THUS T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE INTENSIFYING THE SYSTEM AND AGREE ON AN EVENTUAL
SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK.

POTENTIAL FOR 14F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 032030 UTC.

[Chacor]

Special Weather Bulletin Number ONE for Tonga ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION
14F ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Apr 02/2321 UTC 2009 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR TONGA.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL TONGA WATERS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14F [1002HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 14 DECIMAL
6 SOUTH 178 DECIMAL 8 EAST AT 022100 UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR
BASED ON MTSAT VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS 25
KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE, POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 30
TO 35 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14F IS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY SLOW MOVING BUT IS EXPECTED TO START MOVING
SOUTHEAST IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON ITS FORECAST TRACK, 14F IS
EXPECTED TO LIE TO THE WEST OF NIUAFO'OU IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
WINDS MAY INCREASE TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE NIUAS IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

FOR NIUAS:
NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS. WINDS POSSIBLY
INCREASING TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH TO
VERY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY SWELL DEVELOPING. SEA
FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS POSSIBLE.

FOR VAVA'U GROUP:
SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER OPEN WATERS, FRESH AND GUSTY OVER
LAND. WINDS TURNING NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND POSSIBLY INCREASING TO
DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. CLOUDY PERIODS WITH
FEW SHOWERS. RAIN DEVELOPING LATER TOMORROW. ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE
SOUTHEAST SWELL.

HA'APAI AND TONGATAPU GROUPS:
SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER OPEN WATERS, FRESH AND GUSTY OVER
LAND. CLOUDY PERIODS WITH FEW SHOWERS. ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE SOUTHEAST
SWELL.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR TONGA WILL BE ISSUED AT 030530
UTC.

PLEASE ACKNOWLEDGE RECEIPT OF THIS BULLETIN.

----

pecial Weather Bulletin Number ONE for Wallis and Futuna ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14F
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 02/2323 UTC 2009 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR WALLIS AND FUTUNA.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR WALLIS AND FUTUNA.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14F [1002HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 14 DECIMAL
6 SOUTH 178 DECIMAL 8 EAST AT 022100 UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR
BASED ON MTSAT VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS 25
KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE, POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 30
TO 35 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14F IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY SLOW MOVING
BUT IS EXPECTED TO START MOVING SOUTHEAST IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
ON ITS FORECAST TRACK, 14F IS EXPECTED TO LIE TO THE SOUTH OF WALLIS
AND FUTUNA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS MAY INCREASE TO DAMAGING GALE
FORCE WINDS OVER WALLIS AND FUTUNA IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

FOR WALLIS AND FUTUNA:
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS OVER
OPEN WATERS, FRESH TO STRONG AND GUSTY OVER LAND. WINDS POSSIBLY
INCREASING TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS.
ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY SWELL DEVELOPING.
FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS POSSIBLE.

PLEASE ACKNOWLEDGE RECEIPT OF THIS BULLETIN.


The next Special Weather Bulletin for Wallis and Futuna will be
issued at 030430 UTC.

[Chacor]

Special Weather Bulletin Number FOUR for Wallis and Futuna ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14F
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 03/1317 UTC 2009 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR WALLIS AND FUTUNA.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR WALLIS AND FUTUNA.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14F [1000HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 15 DECIMAL
7 SOUTH 178 DECIMAL 9 WEST AT 031200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON
MTSAT IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS 25 TO 30
KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE, POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 35
KNOTS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14F IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING
EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 13 KNOTS AND IS EXPECTED TO CURVE SOUTHEAST. ON
THIS TRACK, 14F IS EXPECTED TO LIE TO THE SOUTH OF WALLIS AND FUTUNA
TONIGHT. WINDS MAY INCREASE TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER WALLIS
AND FUTUNA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

FOR WALLIS AND FUTUNA:
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS OVER
OPEN WATERS, FRESH TO STRONG AND GUSTY OVER LAND. WINDS POSSIBLY
INCREASING TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN 24 HOURS.
PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS.
ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY SWELL.
FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS POSSIBLE.

PLEASE ACKNOWLEDGE RECEIPT OF THIS BULLETIN.


THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR WALLIS AND FUTUNA WILL BE
ISSUED AROUND 031630 UTC.


GALE WARNING 017 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 03/1329 UTC 2009 UTC.

***CORRECTION FOR MOVEMENT***
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14F [1000HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7S 178.9W AT 031200
UTC MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST 13 KNOTS. POSITION POOR. EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS 25 TO
30 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE, POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 35 KNOTS IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX
PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 015.

[HURAKAN]

GALE WARNING 020 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 03/2049 UTC 2009 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE LIN [995HPA] CATEGORY 1 CENTRE WAS RE-LOCATED NEAR
16 DECIMAL 6 SOUTH 176 DECIMAL 4 WEST AT 031800 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 16.6S 176.4W AT 031800 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 17.9S 175.5W AT 040600 UTC
AND NEAR 18.9S 174.5W AT 041800 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 019.

[Chacor]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.3S
178.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.8S 177.6W, APPROXIMATELY 410 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENCHANCED BY A MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH. A 031812Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE SHOWS A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION
CENTER. DUE TO THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM,
QUIKSCAT INTENSITIES ARE SUSPECT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF
LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WITH VWS INCREASING
DRAMATICALLY TO THE SOUTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
FAIR.

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

[HURAKAN]

STORM WARNING 021 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 04/0111 UTC 2009 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE LIN [990HPA] CATEGORY 1 CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 18
DECIMAL 0 SOUTH 175 DECIMAL 7 WEST AT 040000 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 18.0S 175.7W AT 040000 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 16 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 TO 45 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE
INCREASING TO 50 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 19.3S 174.9W AT 041200 UTC
AND NEAR 20.9S 174.1W AT 050000 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 020.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A7 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Apr 04/0203 UTC 2009 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE LIN 14F [990HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0S
175.7W AT 040000 UTC MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 16 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR
BASED ON MTSAT IR/VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND LATEST QUICKSCAT
PASS. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 TO 45 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE
INCREASING TO 50 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER
33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.

LLCC LOCATED JUST NW OF DEVELOPING, COLD CDO. BANDING TRYING TO
CONSOLIDATE TO NORTH AND EAST. OUTFLOW GOOD TO SOUTH AND NORTH BUT
RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. TD14F LIES IN AN AREA OF LOW SHEAR IN A
DIFFLUENT REGION. THE SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE
TO A MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST. CIMSS INDICATES DECREASING SHEAR TO
SOUTH OF TRACK. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED
ON 0.6/0.7 LOG10 SPIRAL BAND YIELDING DT=3.0. MET=3.0. PT=2.5 FT
BASED ON MET, THUS T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION ALONG A SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK.

FORECAST:
12HRS VALID AT 041200 UTC NEAR 19.3S 174.9W MOV SSE 07KT WITH 50KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE. 24HRS VALID AT 050000 UTC NEAR 20.9S 174.1W MOV SSE
09KT WITH 50KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 051200 UTC NEAR 23.2S 173.3W MOV SSE 12KT WITH 55KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 060000 UTC NEAR 25.9S 172.2W MOV SSE 14KT WITH 55KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
040830 UTC.

[HURAKAN]

SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (LIN) WARNING NR 001
WTPS31 PGTW 040300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (LIN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 17.7S 175.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S 175.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 18.9S 174.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 20.5S 173.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 22.3S 172.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 24.7S 171.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
040300Z POSITION NEAR 18.0S 175.4W.
TC 25P (LIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM EAST OF
SUVA, FIJI, HAS MOVED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST O6 HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED WHILE DEEP CONVECTION (ENHANCED BY
MAXIMUM DIURNAL COOLING OVERNIGHT) AGGRESSIVELY BUILT IN
OVER THE CENTER. A 031812Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE DEPICTS A STRONG
AND TIGHTENED LLCC WITH WINDS NEAR THE CENTER AS HIGH AS
45 KNOTS; THOUGH MOST OF THESE WIND OBSERVATIONS ARE
SUSPECT DUE TO THE INTENSE PRECIPITATION THAT IS FALLING.
AS A RESULT, THE INITIAL FORECAST INTENSITY WEIGHS MORE
TOWARDS THE 2.0 DVORAK FROM PGTW AND NFFN, RATHER THAN THE
QUIKSCAT SOLUTION, AS WELL AS SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OBSERVA-
TIONS FROM NEARBY FIJI. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IS STILL ORIENTED
LINEARLY ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH, RATHER THAN SYMMETRICALLY
ABOUT THE LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN UNDER LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AFTER WHICH,
EXCESSIVE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A MID TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN DIGGING EQUATORWARD FOR THE
LAST 2 DAYS, WILL WEAKEN THE CYCLONE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
INITIALIZING THE SYSTEM VERY POORLY DUE TO THE RAPID
CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC AND IT BEING EMBEDDED IN VERY
TIGHT TROUGHING. HOWEVER, THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
PART OF THE MONSOON TROUGH QUICKLY TRACKS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
OUT AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH IN A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 041500Z AND 050300Z.
//
NNNN

[Chacor]

pecial Weather Bulletin Number EIGHT for Tonga ON TROPICAL CYCLONE
LIN ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Apr 04/0124 UTC 2009 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A TROPICAL CYCLONE STORM WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR VAVAU, HA'APAI
AND TONGATAPU GROUPS AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE NIUAS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE LIN [990HPA] CAT 1 CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 18
DECIMAL 0 SOUTH 175 DECIMAL 7 WEST OR ABOUT 145 MILES SOUTH OF
NIUAFO'OU OR ABOUT 105 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF VAVAU AT 040000 UTC.
CYCLONE IS INTENSIFYING.

CLOSE TO ITS CENTRE, THE CYCLONE IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE AVERAGE
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. WINDS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 50 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 75 KNOTS IN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

THE CYCLONE IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 16 KNOTS. ON THIS TRACK, THE
CYCLONE CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 65 MILES SOUTHWEST OF VAVAU
OR 110 MILES NORTH OF NUKU'ALOFA AT 04/1200 UTC AND ABOUT 135 MILES
SOUTH OF VAVAU OR ABOUT 60 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF NUKU'ALOFA AT
05/0000 UTC. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE CENTRE MOVES OVERHEAD OR
NEARBY.

FOR THE NIUAS;
DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS WITH
MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS DECREASING GRADUALLY. PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF
LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS POSSIBLE.

FOR VAVAU, HA'APAI AND TONGATAPU GROUPS AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS :
WINDS INCREASING TO DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 50
KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 75 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA
FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS POSSIBLE.

THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS PROVIDED ESPECIALLY FOR THE MARINERS:
EXPECT WINDS OF 45 KNOTS CLOSE TO CENTRE INCREASING TO 50 KNOTS IN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHN 150 MILES
OF CENTRE. HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.

POOR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR TONGA WILL BE ISSUED AT 040430
UTC.

PLEASE ACKNOWLEDGE RECEIPT OF THIS BULLETIN.

[Chacor]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A8 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Apr 04/0804 UTC 2009 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE LIN 14F [985HPA] CATEGORY 2 CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR
18.8S 175.6W AT 040600 UTC MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 12 KNOTS. POSITION
FAIR BASED ON MTSAT IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO
60 KNOTS BY 041200 UTC. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL
MILES OF CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES
OF CENTRE.

OVERALL ORGANISATION IMPROVING DUE TO DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS. CDO WELL
DEVELOPED NOW OVER LLCC WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS. BANDING EVIDENT TO
NORTH. LIN LIES IN AN AREA OF LOW SHEAR IN A DIFFLUENT REGION. THE
SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO A MID LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE EAST. CIMSS INDICATES INCREASING SHEAR TO SOUTH OF TONGATAPU AND
THIS WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM BEYOND 24 HOURS. A 250 HPA LONG WAVE
TROUGH IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND IS GOING TO SWAMP THE
CYCLONE. SST AROUND 28 DEGREES CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON WRAP
OF 0.8 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING DT=PT=3.5, MET=3.0. FT BASED ON DT,
THUS T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON SHORT-TERM
INTENSIFICATION ALONG A SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK.

FORECAST:
12HRS VALID AT 041800 UTC NEAR 21.0S 175.0W MOV SSE 11KT WITH 60KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE. 24HRS VALID AT 050600 UTC NEAR 23.0S 174.4W MOV SSE
11KT WITH 50KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 051800 UTC NEAR 24.9S 173.7W MOV SSE 11KT WITH 45KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 060600 UTC NEAR 26.9S 172.3W MOV SSE 11KT WITH 40KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE LIN WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
041430 UTC.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 04 APR 2009 Time : 133000 UTC
Lat : 20:00:07 S Lon : 176:08:59 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.2 / 997.9mb/ 49.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.2 3.4 4.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.3mb

Center Temp : -81.4C Cloud Region Temp : -80.9C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

***************************************************

[HURAKAN]

04/2030 UTC 21.2S 175.3W T3.0/3.0 LIN -- Southeast Pacific

Eye-like feature?

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 05 APR 2009 Time : 001300 UTC
Lat : 22:16:21 S Lon : 176:10:40 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.0 / 987.6mb/ 65.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.9 3.6 3.6

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.6mb

Center Temp : -70.4C Cloud Region Temp : -67.7C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A10 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Apr 04/2031 UTC 2009 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE LIN 14F [980HPA] CATEGORY 2 CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR
20.5S 175.5W AT 041800 UTC. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 10
KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE. POSITION FAIR BASED ON
MTSAT IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND LATEST QIUCKSCAT PASS. EXPECT
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 55 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47
KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS
WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.

CDO BECOME SYMMETRICAL AND INCREASED SPATIALLY PAST 12HRS WITH TOPS
REMAINING COLD. BANDING TO NORTH AND EAST STRUGGLING TO WRAP AROUND
LLCC. OUTLOW GOOD TO SOUTH AND EAST BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. LIN
CURRENTLY LIES IN 25-KT SHEAR ZONE IN A MODERATELY REGION. CYCLONE
STEERED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY NORTHERLY DEEP LAYER WINDS. LIN MOVING
INTO AREA OF INCREASING SHEAR BUT DECREASING SHEAR TENDENCY [CIMSS].
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WILL BE RESTRICTED BY AN APPROACHING 250HPA LONG
WAVE TROUGH FROM THE WEST. SST AROUND 28 DEGREES CELCIUS. DVORAK
ANALYSIS BASED ON WRAP OF 0.85 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING
DT=PT=MET=3.5. FT BASED ON DT, THUS T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS. GLOBAL
MODELS AGREE ON SHORT-TERM INTENSIFICATION ALONG A SOUTHEASTERLY
TRACK AND THEN GRADUAL WEAKENING.

FORECAST:
12HRS VALID AT 050600 UTC NEAR 22.6S 175.2W MOV S 12KT WITH 60KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE. 24HRS VALID AT 051800 UTC NEAR 25.1S 174.4W MOV SSE
13KT WITH 55KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 060600 UTC NEAR 28.0S 172.8W MOV SSE 16KT WITH 45KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 061800 UTC NEAR 30.4S 171.4W MOV SSE 14KT WITH 40KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE LIN WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
050230 UTC.

[Chacor]

Remains 60 kt.

FKPS01 NFFN 050715
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20090405/0600Z
TCAC: NFFN
TC: LIN
NR: 07
PSN: S2324 W17448
MOV: SSE 15KT
C: 975HPA
MAX WIND: 60KT
FCST PSN +6HR: 05/1200 S2436 W17448
FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 55KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 05/1800 S2548 W17442
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 50KT
FCST PSN +18HR: 06/0000 S2700 W17418
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 50KT
FCST PSN +24HR: 06/0600 S2818 W17342
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 40KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20090405/1300Z

[cycloneye]

JTWC issued its final warning:

WTPS31 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (LIN) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (LIN) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 24.8S 174.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 22 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.8S 174.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 29.3S 172.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 25.9S 173.9W.
TC 25P (LIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 630 NM SOUTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI,
HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 22 KNOTS OVER THE PAST O6
HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) THAT HAS STARTED EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ET),
BECOMING ELONGATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
HAVE RAPIDLY DECREASED FOR THE SYSTEM AS THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH TC 25P HAS BECOME SHEARED FROM THE LLCC TO THE SOUTHEAST.
RAPIDLY INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A LONG WAVE
TROUGH SOUTHWEST OF LIN HAS BEEN THE PRIMARY FACTOR IN TC 25P
UNDERGOING ET. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE CONTINUED TO DECREASE
AS LIN CONTINUES TRACKING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND HAVE BECOME
UNFAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THESE FACTORS, COUPLED WITH A
STRONG BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY, WILL LEAD TO RAPID ET IN THE NEXT 12
HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONI-
TORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
051200Z IS 17 FEET.//
NNNN

[Chacor]

FKPS01 NFFN 051200
TC ADVISORY
DTG:200904051300Z
TCAC:NFFN
TC:LIN
NR:08
PSN:S2406 W17436
MOV:S 13KT
C:980HPA
MAX WIND:55KT
FCST PSN +06HR:S2524 W17418
FCST MAX WIND +06HR:45KT
FCST PSN + 12 HR:S2636 W17400
FCST MAX WIND + 12 HR:40KT
FCST PSN + 18 HR:S2754 W17324
FCST MAX WIND + 18 HR:30KT
FCST PSN + 24 HR:S2918 W17242
FCST MAX WIND + 24 HR:30KT
RMK:NIL
NXT MSG:20090405/1930