SPAC: Invest 98P

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HURAKAN
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SPAC: Invest 98P

#1 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Apr 08, 2009 7:23 pm

Image

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 08/2257 UTC 2009 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD15F [1005HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 7.3S
163.1E AT 082100 UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR/VIS
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS.

THE SYSTEM LIES EMBEDDED ALONG A MONSOONAL TROUGH. RECENT QUIKSCAT
PASS DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. DEEP
CONVECTION IS MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH A CONVERGENCE ZONE TO THE NORTH
OF 15F BUT WITH NO REAL ORGANISATION. CIMMS INDICATES THE SYSTEM LIES
IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIROMENT UNDER A DIFFLUENT REGION. SST AROUND 31
DEGREE CELSIUS. LATEST WATER VAPOUR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR TO THE
SOUTHEAST. MOST GLOBALS MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT
SOUTHWEST WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION.
POTENTIAL FOR TD15F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

THERE ARE NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR
FORECAST IN THE AREA.
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#2 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Apr 08, 2009 7:24 pm

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.0S
164.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.0S 164.8E, APPROXIMATELY 325 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY
SHOWS MID-LEVEL TURNING AND INCREASING CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE CIRCULATION. QUIKSCAT ANALYSIS INDICATES WINDS OF 20 TO
25 KNOTS NEAR A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE POINT SOURCE
DIFFLUENCE APPEARS TO HAVE RE-ESTABLISHED ITSELF OVER THE
DISTURBANCE, FUELING THE RESURGENCE OF CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO THE WELL-DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CENTER AND INCREASED CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
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Re: SPAC: Tropical Depression 15F (98P)

#3 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Apr 09, 2009 8:59 am

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 09/0928 UTC 2009 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD15F [1004HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 08S 163E
AT 090600 UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR IMAGERY
WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS.

THE SYSTEM LIES EMBEDDED ALONG A MONSOONAL TROUGH. DEEP CONVECTION IS
MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH A CONVERGENCE ZONE TO THE NORTH OF 15F WITH
ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY. CIMMS INDICATES THE SYSTEM LIES
IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIROMENT UNDER A DIFFLUENT REGION. SST AROUND 31
DEGREE CELSIUS. LATEST WATER VAPOUR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR TO THE
SOUTH. MOST GLOBALS MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT
SOUTHWEST WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR TD15F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

THERE ARE NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR
FORECAST IN THE AREA.

Image
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#4 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Apr 09, 2009 9:19 pm

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 09/2352 UTC 2009 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD15F [1004HPA] CENTRE WAS RE-LOCATED NEAR 8.1S
163.2E AT 092100 UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT VIS
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION.

LLCC IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AND IS POORLY DEFINED. WEAK BANDING
CONVECTION EXISTS ALONG OUTER PERIPHERY TO EAST BUT WITH NO REAL
ORGANISATION. RECENT WV IMAGERY SHOWS OUTFLOW TO SOUTH. MJO MODELS
SUGGEST A SUPPRESSED MJO PHASE IN THIS AREA, HOWEVER, A TROPICAL
ROSSBY WAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH. CIMMS INDICATES THE SYSTEM
LIES IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIROMENT TO THE NORTH OF A 250 HPA RIDGE. SST
AROUND 31 DEGREE CELSIUS. GLOBALS MODELS MOVE THE SYSTEM SOUTHWEST
WITH LITTLE OR NO INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR TD15F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

THERE ARE NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR
FORECAST IN THE AREA.
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Re: SPAC: Tropical Depression 15F (98P)

#5 Postby tolakram » Fri Apr 10, 2009 11:55 am

Doesn't look too bad.

Image
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Re: SPAC: Tropical Depression 15F (98P)

#6 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Apr 10, 2009 9:10 pm

Image

Image

Image
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#7 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Apr 10, 2009 9:12 pm

10/2030 UTC 9.7S 160.5E OVERLAND 98P -- Southwest Pacific

WOW!
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Re: SPAC: Tropical Depression 15F (98P)

#8 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Apr 11, 2009 3:24 pm

Image

Image

25 knots - 1004 mb
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#9 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Apr 11, 2009 3:25 pm

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.5S
161.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.8S 159.6E, APPROXIMATELY 30 NM
SOUTHWEST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE FORMED AROUND AN ILL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION CENTER. SCATERROMETRY DATA INDICATE THE LOW LEVEL
STRUCTURE TO BE VERY BROAD WITH WEAK WINDS ALONG AN ELONGATED
TROUGH. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN THE SOLOMON ISLANDS SHOW THAT SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE HAS REMAINED UNPERTURBED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
SYSTEM IS JUST NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS, WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AT 1007 MB. DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
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#10 Postby Chacor » Sat Apr 11, 2009 10:03 pm

No longer TD15F as it's out of Fiji's area. Australia have not picked it up.
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Re: SPAC: Invest 98P

#11 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Apr 12, 2009 6:58 pm

Image

Shear.
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