Bay of Bengal: BIJLI - Deep Depression (01B)

[badkhan]

DEMS–RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 13-04-2009

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.)

CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST AND ADJOINING EAST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOPAR (probably mean low pressure) AREA CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE ALSO SEEN OVER NORTH ANDAMAN SEA.

RIDGE LINE AT 200 hPa RUNS ALONG LATITUDE 16.0º N OVER THE INDIAN REGION.

ABIO10 PGTW 131800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/131800Z-141800ZAPR2009//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.8N 87.4E,
APPROXIMATELY 425 NM EAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
INDICATES A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS REMAINED
PERSISTENT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE
LLCC. A 131335Z SSMIS AND A 131526Z AMSU-B PASS INDICATE WEAK
BANDING TOWARD THE LLCC WITH MOST OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION LOCATED
ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. THE LLCC IS ELONGATED ALONG A NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST AXIS, BUT CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED SOUTH OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS PROVIDING GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THE REGION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
POOR.

[HURAKAN]

Looking much better.

[HurricaneRobert]

This could be a bad one.

[HURAKAN]

14/0230 UTC 12.3N 87.7E T1.5/1.5 94B -- Bay of Bengal

[theavocado]

Observation from the Tiger Breeze sailing in that area:
2009-Apr-14 06:00 N 13°00' E 088°36'
Wind: 170 24kts
Pressure: 1001.8
Seas: 2.0
Temp: 27.0
DP: 25.6
SST: 29.6

JTWC has upgraded it to a FAIR:

ABIO10 PGTW 140630
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/140630Z-141800ZAPR2009//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.8N
87.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 87.8E, APPROXIMATELY 440 NM EAST OF
CHENNAI, INDIA. MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH POCKETS OF DEEP CONVECTION
FLARING OVER THE CENTER AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. A 140010Z
AMSU-B PASS INDICATES FRAGMENTED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC WITH
THE DEEPEST CONVECTION LOCATED ON THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED SOUTH OF AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PROVIDING GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THE REGION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
FAIR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO FAIR.
FORECAST TEAM: ALPHA//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

DEMS–RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 14-04-2009

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.)

A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER SOUTHEAST & ADJOINING CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL PERSISTS. IT IS LIKELY TO BECOME MORE MARKED. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN BETWEEN LAT. 0.50N TO 18.00N AND LONG. 83.00E TO 94.00E. CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE ALSO SEEN OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA, EASTCENTRAL BAY AND NORTH ANDAMAN SEA.

RIDGE LINE AT 200 hPa RUNS ALONG LATITUDE 13.0º N OVER THE INDIAN REGION.

[HURAKAN]

14/0830 UTC 12.6N 87.7E T2.0/2.0 94B -- Bay of Bengal

Almost there.

[HURAKAN]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 140100.GIF

Excellent rotation. This is at least a tropical depression already.

[theavocado]

It's now a TCFA, we may just see the beginning of the Northern Hemishpere TC season soon...

WTIO21 PGTW 141130
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN A
225 NM RADIUS OF 12.7N 87.8E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 140600Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 87.8E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING NORTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.8N
87.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 87.8E, APPROXIMATELY 440 NM EAST OF
CHENNAI, INDIA. MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH MULTIPLE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A 140010Z AMSU-B PASS INDICATES FRAGMENTED
BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION LOCATED
NEAR THE CENTER AND ON THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. A 140001Z
QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS 20-25KT WINDS WRAPPING AROUND THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY AND INTO THE CENTER OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
THAT PROVIDS GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS AND LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THE REGION. INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. DUE TO INCREASED CONSOLIDATION AND
ORGANIZATION OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
151130Z.
//


NNNN

[HURAKAN]

[theavocado]

Latest SSMI image looks a little elongated North/South. More so than it did at the diurnal convective max at local sunrise. I'm curious what will happen at the next diurnal max.

[HURAKAN]

Looks great.

[HURAKAN]

DEMS–RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 14-04-2009

Tropical weather outlook for north Indian ocean (The bay of Bengal and Arabian sea) valid for next 24 hours issued at 1400 utc OF 14 APRIL, 2009 based on 1200 UTC of 14 APRIL, 2009 (.)

DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHEAST & ADJOINING CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL REMAINED PRACTICALLY STATIONARY AND LAY CENTRED AT 1200 UTC OF TODAY, THE 14TH APRIL 2009 NEAR LAT. 12.50 N AND LONG. 88.00 E, ABOUT 550 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT BLAIR (43330), 700 KM SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM (43185) AND ABOUT 800 KM SOUTHWEST OF PATHEIN (48094) (MYANMAR).

SATELLITE IMAGeRY INDICATES GRADUAL ORGANIsATION OF CONVECTION DURING PAST TWELVE HOURS. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T1.5. ASSOCIATED BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION OBSERVED OVER AREA BETWEEN LAT. 7.00 N AND 16.00 N AND LONG. 83.00 E AND 91.00 E. THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE (CTT) DUE TO CONVECTION IS AROUND -600C.

sustained maximum SURFACE wind speed is estimated to be about 25 KNOTS. the state of the sea is rough to VERY rough around the system centre. the estimated CENTRAL pressure is about 1000 hpa.

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF HORIZONTAL WIND OVER THE REGION IS AROUND 10 KnoTS. 24 HOURS SHEAR TENDENCY IS NEGTIVE TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE DEPRESSION LIES TO THE SOUTH OF THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE, WHICH ROUGHLY RUNS ALONG 150N. SEA SURFACE TEMPRATUREs are favourable for intensification as it is 0.50 to 1.00 C above normal.

CONSIDERING ALL THE ABOVE, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE IN A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION

INTIALLY.

[HURAKAN]

CMC is the only one intensifying this system.

[HURAKAN]

[badkhan]

I was really looking forward to this, but missed the developments of the past 24 hours because my friggin internet link went down.

[HURAKAN]

[margiek]

I was really looking forward to this, but missed the developments of the past 24 hours because my friggin internet link went down.

You did not miss so much (SSD fixes below):

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
14/2030 UTC 13.0N 87.4E T2.0/2.0 94B -- Bay of Bengal
14/1430 UTC 12.6N 87.4E T2.0/2.0 94B -- Bay of Bengal
14/0830 UTC 12.6N 87.7E T2.0/2.0 94B -- Bay of Bengal
14/0230 UTC 12.3N 87.7E T1.5/1.5 94B -- Bay of Bengal
13/2030 UTC 12.2N 87.5E T1.5/1.5 94B -- Bay of Bengal

[senorpepr]

WTIN20 DEMS 141930
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
-----------------------------------------
DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELH[B14-04-2009
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY
OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS
ISSUED AT 1900 UTC OF 14TH APRIL,2009 BASED ON 1800 UTC
OF 14TH APRIL 2009(.)
DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHEAST & ADJOINING CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL
REMAINED PRACTICALLY STAIONARY AND LAY CENTRED AT 1800 UTC THE
14TH APRIL 2009 NEAR LAT 12.5 DEG N AND LONG.88.0 DEG E
ABOUT 550 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT BLAIR(43333), 700 KM
SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM (43149) AND ABOUT 800 KM SOUTHWEST
OF PATHEIN (48094)(MYANMAR).
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES GRADUAL ORGANISATION OF CONVECTION
DURING PAST TWELVE HOURS. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T1.5
ASSOCIATED BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION OBSERVED
OVER AREA BETWEEN LAT.7.0 DEG.N AND 16.0 DEG.N AND LONG.83.0
DEG.E AND 91.0 DEG.E. THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE(CTT)
DUE TO CONVECTION IS AROUND -60 DEG.C.
SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT
25 KNOTS. THE STATE OF THE SEA IS ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH AROUND
THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT
1000 HPA.

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF HORIZONTAL WIND OVER THE REGION IS
AROUND 10 KNOTS 24 HOURS SHEAR TENDENCY IS NEGTIVE TO THE
WEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE DEPRESSION LIES TO THE SOUTH OF THE
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE, WHICH ROUGHLY RUNS ALONG 15 DEG.N.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION
AS IT IS 0.5 DEG.TO 1.0 DEG.C ABOVE NORMAL.

CONSIDERING ALL THE ABOVE,THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY
FURTHER AND MOVE IN A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION INTIALLY.
MSG OVER

[senorpepr]

BOB 01/2009/03 Dated: 15th April 2009



Time of issue: 0030 hours IST





Sub: Depression over southeast & adjoining central Bay of Bengal



Depression over southeast & adjoining central Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lay centred at 2330

hours IST of today, the 14th April 2009 near lat. 12.50 N and long. 88.00 E, about 550 km west-northwest of Port Blair, 700 km

southeast of Visakhapatnam and 800 km southwest of Pathein (Myanmar). The system is likely to intensify further and move in

a northwesterly direction initially.



Under its influence, rainfall at many places with isolated heavy falls is likely over Andaman & Nicober Islands during next 48 hours.



Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph are likely over Andaman Islands and adjoining Sea areas

during next 48 hours. Sea condition is rough to very rough along and off Andaman Islands.



Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea.