Bay of Bengal: BIJLI - Deep Depression (01B)

[puyal]

Hope it evades the shallow Bangladesh coast

[Chacor]

http://www.bmd.gov.bd/radar_image.php

Bangladesh radar.

[Chacor]

Warning issued by BMD has central pressure 8 hPa lower than IMD.

Govt. of the People's Republic of Bangladesh
Bangladesh Meteorological Department
Storm Warning Center
Agargaon, Dhaka-1207


SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN: SL. NO: 18 (EIGHTEEN), DATE: 17- 04-2009

THE CYCLONIC STORM “BIJLI” (WITH ECP 988 HPA) OVER NORTHWEST BAY AND ADJOINING WEST CENTRAL BAY MOVED SLIGHTLY NORTHEASTWARDS AND NOW LIES OVER NORTH BAY AND ADJOINING AREA AND WAS CENTRED AT 09 AM TODAY (THE 17 APRIL 2009) ABOUT 490 KMS SOUTHWEST OF CHITTAGONG PORT, 460 KMS SOUTHWEST OF COX’S BAZAR PORT AND 330 KMS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MONGLA PORT (NEAR LAT.19.70 N AND LONG.88.20 E). IT IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE IN A NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AND MAY CROSS BARISAL-CHITTAGONG COAST NEAR MEGHNA EASTURY BY EARLY NIGHT TO NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED WITHIN 54 KMS OF THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS ABOUT 70 KPH RISING TO 90 KPH IN GUSTS/SQUALLS. SEA WILL REMAIN VERY ROUGH .
MARITIME PORTS OF CHITTAGONG AND COX’S BAZAR HAVE BEEN ADVISED TO KEEP HOISTED DANGER SIGNAL NO. SIX (R) SIX.
THE COASTAL DISTRICTS OF COX’S BAZAR, CHITTAGONG, NOAKHALI, FENI, LAXMIPUR, BHOLA, BARISAL CHANDPUR AND THEIR OFFSHORE ISLANDS AND CHARS WILL COME UNDER DANGER SIGNAL NO. SIX (R) SIX.
MARITIME PORT OF MONGLA HAS BEEN ADVISED KEEP HOISTED DANGER SIGNAL NO. FIVE (R) FIVE.
THE COASTAL DISTRICTS OF PATUAKHALI, BORGUNA, PIROZPUR, JHALOKATHI, BAGERHAT, KHULNA, SATKHIRA, AND THEIR OFFSHORE ISLANDS AND CHARS WILL COME UNDER DANGER SIGNAL NO. FIVE (R) FIVE.
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STORM, THE COASTAL DISTRICTS OF COX’S BAZAR, CHITTAGONG, NOAKHALI, FENI, LAXMIPUR, BHOLA, BARISAL, PATUAKHALI, BORGUNA, CHANDPUR, PIROZPUR, JHALOKATHI, BAGERHAT, KHULNA, SATKHIRA, AND THEIR OFFSHORE ISLANDS AND CHARS ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE HEAVY RAIN ACCOMPANIED BY SQUALLY WIND SPEED UP TO 120 KPH WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM.
THE LOW-LYING AREAS OF THE COASTAL DISTRICTS OF COX’S BAZAR, CHITTAGONG, NOAKHALI, FENI, LAXMIPUR, BHOLA, BARISAL, PATUAKHALI, BORGUNA, CHANDPUR, PIROZPUR, JHALOKATHI, BAGERHAT, KHULNA, SATKHIRA, AND THEIR OFFSHORE ISLANDS AND CHARS ARE LIKELY TO BE INUNDATED BY STORM SURGE OF HEIGHT 7-10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDE.
ALL FISHING BOATS AND TRAWLERS OVER NORTH BAY MUST REMAIN IN SHELTER TILL FURTHER NOTICE.

[HURAKAN]

Looks disorganized.

[HURAKAN]

WTIO31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (BIJLI) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (BIJLI) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTH IO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 21.1N 89.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1N 89.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 21.9N 91.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 22.4N 92.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 22.5N 93.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 21.3N 90.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (BIJLI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM
SOUTHWEST OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INCLUDING A
17/0704Z AMSRE PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 50 KNOTS IS
CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND DEMS. TC 01B
CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE CYCLONE HAS
MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS AS SUPPRESSED OUTFLOW
BALANCED THE FAVORABLE INFLUENCES OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER. THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND WEAKEN AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES AS
IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. TC 01B WILL MAKE
LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN BANGLADESH AROUND TAU 15 AND WILL RAPIDLY
DISSIPATE AS IT ENCOUNTERS HIGHER INLAND TERRAIN. THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z AND 180300Z.

[Chacor]

IMD has downgraded it to a deep depression, 30 kts.

[HURAKAN]

Landfall.

[Cookie]

final warning issued

Storm Alert issued at 17 Apr, 2009 18:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Storm BIJLI is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Bangladesh
probability for TS is 95% currently
Myanmar
probability for TS is 90% currently

India
probability for TS is 80% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Chittagong (22.3 N, 91.8 E)
probability for TS is 90% currently

Cox's Bazar (21.4 N, 92.5 E)
probability for TS is 85% currently


Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Severe Cyclonic Storm strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[HURAKAN]

[Chacor]

final warning issued

Storm Alert issued at 17 Apr, 2009 18:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Storm BIJLI is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Bangladesh
probability for TS is 95% currently
Myanmar
probability for TS is 90% currently

India
probability for TS is 80% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Chittagong (22.3 N, 91.8 E)
probability for TS is 90% currently

Cox's Bazar (21.4 N, 92.5 E)
probability for TS is 85% currently


Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Severe Cyclonic Storm strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

That's not an official warning!

[Cookie]

yeah I know but their still handy to give an idea though