Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre
40:2:1:24:06S134E999:11:00
SECURITE
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10/11
Issued by the AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
Issued at 0733 UTC 27 APRIL 2009
PLEASE BE AWARE
Wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here,
and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.
STORM FORCE WIND WARNING FOR NORTHERN AREA
SITUATION
At 0600 UTC Tropical Cyclone Kirrily was centred within 30 nautical miles of
latitude six decimal five south [6.5S]
longitude one hundred and thirty four decimal one east [134.1E]
Recent movement : northwest at 4 knots
Maximum winds : 35 knots
Central pressure: 998 hPa
AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles of the centre.
FORECAST
Maximum winds to 35 knots near the centre increasing to 55 knots by 0600 UTC 28
April.
Winds above 34 knots within 60 nautical miles of centre with rough seas and
moderate swell.
Winds above 48 knots within 20 nautical miles of centre with very rough seas and
moderate swell developing after 1800 UTC 27 April.
Forecast positions
At 1800 UTC 27 April: Within 60 nautical miles of 5.9 south 133.4 east
Central pressure 991 hPa.
Winds to 50 knots near centre.
At 0600 UTC 28 April: Within 90 nautical miles of 5.3 south 132.3 east
Central pressure 988 hPa.
Winds to 55 knots near centre.
REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to nttcwc@bom.gov.au or fax to +6189203829
or satellite to SAC 1241 through Land Earth Station Perth 212.
Next warning will be issued by 1330 UTC 27 April 2009.
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Banda Sea: KIRRILY - ex-Tropical Cyclone (27S)
Moderator: S2k Moderators
-
HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
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- Contact:
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre
40:2:1:24:06S134E999:11:00
SECURITE
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10/11
Issued by the AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
Issued at 1325 UTC 27 APRIL 2009
PLEASE BE AWARE
Wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here,
and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.
STORM FORCE WIND WARNING FOR NORTHERN AREA
SITUATION
At 1200 UTC Tropical Cyclone Kirrily was centred within 40 nautical miles of
latitude five decimal nine south [5.9S]
longitude one hundred and thirty three decimal six east [133.6E]
Recent movement : northwest at 8 knots
Maximum winds : 35 knots
Central pressure: 998 hPa
AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles of the centre.
FORECAST
Maximum winds to 35 knots near the centre increasing to 60 knots by 1200 UTC 28
April.
Winds above 34 knots within 60 nautical miles of centre with rough seas and
moderate swell.
Winds above 48 knots within 20 nautical miles of centre with very rough seas and
moderate swell developing after 1800 UTC 27 April.
Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 28 April: Within 70 nautical miles of 5.0 south 132.7 east
Central pressure 991 hPa.
Winds to 50 knots near centre.
At 1200 UTC 28 April: Within 100 nautical miles of 4.5 south 131.7 east
Central pressure 984 hPa.
Winds to 60 knots near centre.
REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to nttcwc@bom.gov.au or fax to +6189203829
or satellite to SAC 1241 through Land Earth Station Perth 212.
Next warning will be issued by 1930 UTC 27 April 2009.
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre
40:2:1:24:06S134E999:11:00
SECURITE
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10/11
Issued by the AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
Issued at 1325 UTC 27 APRIL 2009
PLEASE BE AWARE
Wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here,
and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.
STORM FORCE WIND WARNING FOR NORTHERN AREA
SITUATION
At 1200 UTC Tropical Cyclone Kirrily was centred within 40 nautical miles of
latitude five decimal nine south [5.9S]
longitude one hundred and thirty three decimal six east [133.6E]
Recent movement : northwest at 8 knots
Maximum winds : 35 knots
Central pressure: 998 hPa
AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles of the centre.
FORECAST
Maximum winds to 35 knots near the centre increasing to 60 knots by 1200 UTC 28
April.
Winds above 34 knots within 60 nautical miles of centre with rough seas and
moderate swell.
Winds above 48 knots within 20 nautical miles of centre with very rough seas and
moderate swell developing after 1800 UTC 27 April.
Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 28 April: Within 70 nautical miles of 5.0 south 132.7 east
Central pressure 991 hPa.
Winds to 50 knots near centre.
At 1200 UTC 28 April: Within 100 nautical miles of 4.5 south 131.7 east
Central pressure 984 hPa.
Winds to 60 knots near centre.
REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to nttcwc@bom.gov.au or fax to +6189203829
or satellite to SAC 1241 through Land Earth Station Perth 212.
Next warning will be issued by 1930 UTC 27 April 2009.
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
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AXAU01 ADRM 271332
IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1331 UTC 27/04/2009
Name: Tropical Cyclone Kirrily
Identifier: 23U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 5.9S
Longitude: 133.6E
Location Accuracy: within 40 nm [75 km]
Movement Towards: northwest [320 deg]
Speed of Movement: 8 knots [14 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 998 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 30 nm [55 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
Storm Depth: Medium
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 28/0000: 5.0S 132.7E: 070 [130]: 050 [095]: 991
+24: 28/1200: 4.5S 131.7E: 100 [185]: 060 [110]: 984
+36: 29/0000: 4.2S 130.5E: 130 [245]: 055 [100]: 988
+48: 29/1200: 4.2S 129.6E: 165 [305]: 050 [095]: 990
+60: 30/0000: 4.5S 129.0E: 210 [395]: 045 [085]: 994
+72: 30/1200: 4.8S 128.6E: 260 [480]: 030 [055]: 1002
REMARKS:
Poor position fix based on MTSAT EIR animation and microwave imagery. Satellite
imagery indicates little if any development over the past 6 hours with a
persistent small CDO. Good outflow continues in southern and western sectors.
Dvorak DT 3.0 from development over past 24h. Local wind obs indicates that RMW
must be quite small.
The system has continued moving northwest under the influence of low to
mid-level ridge to the SW. The consensus of MWP models indicates west northwest
movement over the next 2 days, with steering dominated by a strengthening
mid-level ridge to the south. The environment remains favourable with good upper
divergence, weak vertical wind shear and deep moisture near the system for next
24h. A standard development rate is forecast as the TC moves away from the Aru
Archipelago, possibly reaching T4.0 within 24 hours. In the longer term,
intensification may be hindered by dry air to the west and increasing vertical
wind shear as the system moves north of the upper ridge axis.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 27/1930 UTC by Darwin TCWC.
IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1331 UTC 27/04/2009
Name: Tropical Cyclone Kirrily
Identifier: 23U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 5.9S
Longitude: 133.6E
Location Accuracy: within 40 nm [75 km]
Movement Towards: northwest [320 deg]
Speed of Movement: 8 knots [14 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 998 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 30 nm [55 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
Storm Depth: Medium
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 28/0000: 5.0S 132.7E: 070 [130]: 050 [095]: 991
+24: 28/1200: 4.5S 131.7E: 100 [185]: 060 [110]: 984
+36: 29/0000: 4.2S 130.5E: 130 [245]: 055 [100]: 988
+48: 29/1200: 4.2S 129.6E: 165 [305]: 050 [095]: 990
+60: 30/0000: 4.5S 129.0E: 210 [395]: 045 [085]: 994
+72: 30/1200: 4.8S 128.6E: 260 [480]: 030 [055]: 1002
REMARKS:
Poor position fix based on MTSAT EIR animation and microwave imagery. Satellite
imagery indicates little if any development over the past 6 hours with a
persistent small CDO. Good outflow continues in southern and western sectors.
Dvorak DT 3.0 from development over past 24h. Local wind obs indicates that RMW
must be quite small.
The system has continued moving northwest under the influence of low to
mid-level ridge to the SW. The consensus of MWP models indicates west northwest
movement over the next 2 days, with steering dominated by a strengthening
mid-level ridge to the south. The environment remains favourable with good upper
divergence, weak vertical wind shear and deep moisture near the system for next
24h. A standard development rate is forecast as the TC moves away from the Aru
Archipelago, possibly reaching T4.0 within 24 hours. In the longer term,
intensification may be hindered by dry air to the west and increasing vertical
wind shear as the system moves north of the upper ridge axis.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 27/1930 UTC by Darwin TCWC.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
Re: Banda Sea: KIRRILY - Tropical Cyclone (27S)
WTXS31 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (KIRRILY) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (KIRRILY) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 6.1S 133.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 6.1S 133.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 5.9S 132.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 6.0S 131.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 6.3S 130.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 6.7S 129.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 6.1S 133.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 27S (KIRRILY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN CONVECTION AROUND
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AS IT HAS TRACKED TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE KEPULAUAN KAI ISLANDS. THE CURRENT POSITION
HAS POOR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE DISORGANIZED UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
PATTERN AND IS PREDOMINANTLY BASED ON PERSISTENCE. INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SLIGHT INCREASE
FROM TAU 24 TO TAU 48 AS TC 27S TRACKS INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRON-
MENT WITH DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, INCREASING TOTAL PRECIPI-
TABLE WATER CONTENT, DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. KIRRILY WILL TRACK AROUND THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF
A LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z AND 282100Z.//
NNNN
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AXAU01 ADRM 280127
IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0126 UTC 28/04/2009
Name: Tropical Cyclone Kirrily
Identifier: 23U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 6.2S
Longitude: 133.4E
Location Accuracy: within 50 nm [95 km]
Movement Towards: west [270 deg]
Speed of Movement: 4 knots [7 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 999 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 30 nm [55 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/S0.0/12HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 90 nm [165 km]
Storm Depth: Medium
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 28/1200: 6.0S 132.7E: 080 [150]: 040 [075]: 997
+24: 29/0000: 6.0S 131.9E: 110 [205]: 045 [085]: 994
+36: 29/1200: 6.0S 131.2E: 140 [265]: 035 [065]: 998
+48: 30/0000: 6.5S 130.5E: 175 [325]: 030 [055]: 1002
+60: 30/1200: 7.0S 130.1E: 220 [410]: 030 [055]: 1002
+72: 01/0000: 7.8S 129.9E: 270 [500]: 025 [045]: 1005
REMARKS:
Position fix based on MTSAT VIS animation and recent Windsat and SSMI/S
microwave images. Convective structure has weakened during the past 6 hours
under moderate northeasterly wind shear. Outflow and peripheral cloud bands have
decreased in southern and eastern sectors. Dvorak DT 3.0 based on shear pattern
with a partially exposed LLCC near the edge of deep cold cloud. MET=2.0, PAT=2.5
and FT=3.0 based on DT.
The system has moved slowly west under the influence of a strengthening
low-level ridge to the SW. Mid-level steering is weak, with a short wave trough
passing to the southeast and another forecast to develop over Western Australia
within 48 hours. The forecast track is based on a consensus of models including
varying scenarios, dependent on whether the system maintains intensity or
weakens. The forecast indicates possible intensification overnight before
weakening after 24 hours - dry air to the north and west of the system centre
and continuing moderate vertical wind shear north of the upper ridge axis are
inhibiting factors.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 28/0730 UTC by Darwin TCWC.
IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0126 UTC 28/04/2009
Name: Tropical Cyclone Kirrily
Identifier: 23U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 6.2S
Longitude: 133.4E
Location Accuracy: within 50 nm [95 km]
Movement Towards: west [270 deg]
Speed of Movement: 4 knots [7 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 999 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 30 nm [55 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/S0.0/12HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 90 nm [165 km]
Storm Depth: Medium
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 28/1200: 6.0S 132.7E: 080 [150]: 040 [075]: 997
+24: 29/0000: 6.0S 131.9E: 110 [205]: 045 [085]: 994
+36: 29/1200: 6.0S 131.2E: 140 [265]: 035 [065]: 998
+48: 30/0000: 6.5S 130.5E: 175 [325]: 030 [055]: 1002
+60: 30/1200: 7.0S 130.1E: 220 [410]: 030 [055]: 1002
+72: 01/0000: 7.8S 129.9E: 270 [500]: 025 [045]: 1005
REMARKS:
Position fix based on MTSAT VIS animation and recent Windsat and SSMI/S
microwave images. Convective structure has weakened during the past 6 hours
under moderate northeasterly wind shear. Outflow and peripheral cloud bands have
decreased in southern and eastern sectors. Dvorak DT 3.0 based on shear pattern
with a partially exposed LLCC near the edge of deep cold cloud. MET=2.0, PAT=2.5
and FT=3.0 based on DT.
The system has moved slowly west under the influence of a strengthening
low-level ridge to the SW. Mid-level steering is weak, with a short wave trough
passing to the southeast and another forecast to develop over Western Australia
within 48 hours. The forecast track is based on a consensus of models including
varying scenarios, dependent on whether the system maintains intensity or
weakens. The forecast indicates possible intensification overnight before
weakening after 24 hours - dry air to the north and west of the system centre
and continuing moderate vertical wind shear north of the upper ridge axis are
inhibiting factors.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 28/0730 UTC by Darwin TCWC.
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AXAU01 ADRM 280718
IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0717 UTC 28/04/2009
Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Kirrily
Identifier: 23U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 5.8S
Longitude: 133.1E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: northwest [304 deg]
Speed of Movement: 4 knots [7 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1002 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/W0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 90 nm [165 km]
Storm Depth: Shallow
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 28/1800: 5.7S 132.4E: 060 [110]: 035 [065]: 999
+24: 29/0600: 5.8S 131.7E: 090 [165]: 035 [065]: 998
+36: 29/1800: 6.2S 130.9E: 120 [225]: 045 [085]: 994
+48: 30/0600: 7.0S 130.2E: 155 [285]: 035 [065]: 999
+60: 30/1800: 7.9S 129.6E: 200 [375]: 030 [055]: 1001
+72: 01/0600: 8.6S 129.1E: 250 [465]: 030 [055]: 1003
REMARKS:
TC Kirrily has weakened into a tropical low. Latest position fix is based on
exposed LLCC evident in MTSAT VIS images. Convective structure has continued to
weaken during the past 6 hours under moderate northeasterly wind shear. Curved
peripheral cloud bands persist in the southwestern sector. Dvorak DT 2.5 based
on shear pattern with an exposed LLCC near the edge of deep cold cloud.
MET=PAT=2.5 and FT=2.5 based on a downward reassessment of the 0000UTC analysis.
The system has moved slowly northwest under the influence of a strengthening
low-level ridge to the SW. Mid-level steering is weak, with a short wave trough
passing to the southeast and another forecast to develop over Western Australia
within 48 hours. The consensus of model track forecasts indicates a west then
southwest track, if the system retains a deep circulation. Dry air to the north
and west of the system centre is forecast to moisten during the forecast period
and with southwest movement, the system may move into an area of reduced
vertical wind shear. The intensity forecast indicates possible strengthening to
TC intensity early Wednesday as the low moves away from the influence of islands
and towards a slightly more favourable environment.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 28/1330 UTC by Darwin TCWC.
IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0717 UTC 28/04/2009
Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Kirrily
Identifier: 23U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 5.8S
Longitude: 133.1E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: northwest [304 deg]
Speed of Movement: 4 knots [7 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1002 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/W0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 90 nm [165 km]
Storm Depth: Shallow
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 28/1800: 5.7S 132.4E: 060 [110]: 035 [065]: 999
+24: 29/0600: 5.8S 131.7E: 090 [165]: 035 [065]: 998
+36: 29/1800: 6.2S 130.9E: 120 [225]: 045 [085]: 994
+48: 30/0600: 7.0S 130.2E: 155 [285]: 035 [065]: 999
+60: 30/1800: 7.9S 129.6E: 200 [375]: 030 [055]: 1001
+72: 01/0600: 8.6S 129.1E: 250 [465]: 030 [055]: 1003
REMARKS:
TC Kirrily has weakened into a tropical low. Latest position fix is based on
exposed LLCC evident in MTSAT VIS images. Convective structure has continued to
weaken during the past 6 hours under moderate northeasterly wind shear. Curved
peripheral cloud bands persist in the southwestern sector. Dvorak DT 2.5 based
on shear pattern with an exposed LLCC near the edge of deep cold cloud.
MET=PAT=2.5 and FT=2.5 based on a downward reassessment of the 0000UTC analysis.
The system has moved slowly northwest under the influence of a strengthening
low-level ridge to the SW. Mid-level steering is weak, with a short wave trough
passing to the southeast and another forecast to develop over Western Australia
within 48 hours. The consensus of model track forecasts indicates a west then
southwest track, if the system retains a deep circulation. Dry air to the north
and west of the system centre is forecast to moisten during the forecast period
and with southwest movement, the system may move into an area of reduced
vertical wind shear. The intensity forecast indicates possible strengthening to
TC intensity early Wednesday as the low moves away from the influence of islands
and towards a slightly more favourable environment.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 28/1330 UTC by Darwin TCWC.
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somethingfunny
- ChatStaff
- Posts: 3926
- Age: 35
- Joined: Thu May 31, 2007 10:30 pm
- Location: McKinney, Texas
AXAU01 ADRM 281337
IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1337 UTC 28/04/2009
Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Kirrily
Identifier: 23U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 5.9S
Longitude: 132.9E
Location Accuracy: within 50 nm [95 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [243 deg]
Speed of Movement: 2 knots [4 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1002 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/W0.5/24HRS
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 29/0000: 6.2S 132.5E: 080 [150]: 035 [065]: 999
+24: 29/1200: 6.7S 131.8E: 110 [205]: 035 [065]: 998
+36: 30/0000: 7.5S 131.2E: 140 [265]: 035 [065]: 997
+48: 30/1200: 8.3S 130.1E: 175 [325]: 035 [065]: 998
+60: 01/0000: 9.0S 129.0E: 220 [410]: 035 [065]: 999
+72: 01/1200: 9.5S 128.2E: 270 [500]: 030 [055]: 1002
REMARKS:
TC Kirrily has weakened into a tropical low. Latest position fix is based on
exposed LLCC evident in MTSAT Near IR images. The system continues to be under
moderate northeasterly wind shear. Curved peripheral cloud bands persist in the
southwestern sector. Dvorak DT 2.5 based on shear pattern with an exposed LLCC
near the edge of deep cold cloud. MET=PAT=2.5 and FT=2.5 has been maintained
since the 0600UTC analysis.
The system has started to move slowly westward. The system is expected to move
to the southwest under the influence of northeasterly middle level flow. Dry air
to the north and west of the system centre is forecast to moisten during the
forecast period and with southwest movement, the system may move into an area of
reduced vertical wind shear. The intensity forecast indicates possible
strengthening to TC intensity early Wednesday as the low moves away from the
influence of islands and towards a slightly more favourable environment.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 28/1930 UTC by Darwin TCWC.
IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1337 UTC 28/04/2009
Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Kirrily
Identifier: 23U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 5.9S
Longitude: 132.9E
Location Accuracy: within 50 nm [95 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [243 deg]
Speed of Movement: 2 knots [4 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1002 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/W0.5/24HRS
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 29/0000: 6.2S 132.5E: 080 [150]: 035 [065]: 999
+24: 29/1200: 6.7S 131.8E: 110 [205]: 035 [065]: 998
+36: 30/0000: 7.5S 131.2E: 140 [265]: 035 [065]: 997
+48: 30/1200: 8.3S 130.1E: 175 [325]: 035 [065]: 998
+60: 01/0000: 9.0S 129.0E: 220 [410]: 035 [065]: 999
+72: 01/1200: 9.5S 128.2E: 270 [500]: 030 [055]: 1002
REMARKS:
TC Kirrily has weakened into a tropical low. Latest position fix is based on
exposed LLCC evident in MTSAT Near IR images. The system continues to be under
moderate northeasterly wind shear. Curved peripheral cloud bands persist in the
southwestern sector. Dvorak DT 2.5 based on shear pattern with an exposed LLCC
near the edge of deep cold cloud. MET=PAT=2.5 and FT=2.5 has been maintained
since the 0600UTC analysis.
The system has started to move slowly westward. The system is expected to move
to the southwest under the influence of northeasterly middle level flow. Dry air
to the north and west of the system centre is forecast to moisten during the
forecast period and with southwest movement, the system may move into an area of
reduced vertical wind shear. The intensity forecast indicates possible
strengthening to TC intensity early Wednesday as the low moves away from the
influence of islands and towards a slightly more favourable environment.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 28/1930 UTC by Darwin TCWC.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
WTXS31 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (KIRRILY) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (KIRRILY) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 6.0S 133.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - QUASISTATIONARY
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 6.0S 133.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 5.9S 132.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 5.8S 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 5.8S 130.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 6.4S 128.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 6.0S 132.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 27S (KIRRILY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS DEEP DISORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT POSITION HAS POOR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
DISORGANIZED UPPER LEVEL CLOUD PATTERN. INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN UNCHANGED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO MODERATE LEVELS OF
UPPER-LEVEL WINDSHEAR. INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO A SLIGHT
INCREASE FROM TAU 24 TO TAU 48 AS TC 27S TRACKS INTO A MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH INCREASING TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
CONTENT, DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
KIRRILY IS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. A LOW TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL PROVIDE WEAK STEERING FLOW
TO THE WEST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 10 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z AND 290900Z.
//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (KIRRILY) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (KIRRILY) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 6.0S 133.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - QUASISTATIONARY
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 6.0S 133.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 5.9S 132.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 5.8S 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 5.8S 130.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 6.4S 128.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 6.0S 132.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 27S (KIRRILY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS DEEP DISORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT POSITION HAS POOR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
DISORGANIZED UPPER LEVEL CLOUD PATTERN. INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN UNCHANGED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO MODERATE LEVELS OF
UPPER-LEVEL WINDSHEAR. INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO A SLIGHT
INCREASE FROM TAU 24 TO TAU 48 AS TC 27S TRACKS INTO A MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH INCREASING TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
CONTENT, DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
KIRRILY IS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. A LOW TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL PROVIDE WEAK STEERING FLOW
TO THE WEST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 10 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z AND 290900Z.
//
NNNN
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 2002 UTC 28/04/2009
Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Kirrily
Identifier: 23U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 5.5S
Longitude: 133.2E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: west [270 deg]
Speed of Movement: 1 knots [2 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1006 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.5/2.0/W1.0/24HRS
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 29/0600: 5.4S 132.8E: 060 [110]: 025 [045]: 1007
+24: 29/1800: 5.6S 132.0E: 090 [165]: 025 [045]: 1007
+36: 30/0600: 6.2S 131.2E: 120 [225]: 030 [055]: 1005
+48: 30/1800: 7.0S 130.4E: 155 [285]: 030 [055]: 1005
+60: 01/0600: 7.6S 129.9E: 200 [375]: 025 [045]: 1007
+72: 01/1800: 8.2S 129.5E: 250 [465]: 020 [035]: 1009
REMARKS:
Ex-TC Kirrily has continued to weaken during the past 6 hours. The latest
position fix is based on an exposed LLCC evident in near-IR and microwave
images. The system continues to be affected by moderate northeasterly wind shear
and deep convection has become increasingly disorganised. Dvorak DT 1.5 based on
shear pattern with a poorly organised, exposed LLCC. MET=PAT=1.5 but FT held at
2.0.
The LLCC has been nearly stationary for the past few hours and recent microwave
images indicate that the mid-level centre is displaced to its southwest. Most
NWP model forecasts indicate further shearing of the mid-level centre away from
the weak LLCC. Forecast movement of a shallow LLCC is towards the west under the
influence of a ridge to the south. If the low becomes more vertically organised,
mid-level steering may move it towards the southwest and into a slightly more
favourable environment with reduced vertical wind shear. However, even if the
low deepens, it is unlikely to reach TC intensity within the next 2 days.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
There will be no further bulletins for this system unless it reintensifies.
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 2002 UTC 28/04/2009
Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Kirrily
Identifier: 23U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 5.5S
Longitude: 133.2E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: west [270 deg]
Speed of Movement: 1 knots [2 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1006 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.5/2.0/W1.0/24HRS
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 29/0600: 5.4S 132.8E: 060 [110]: 025 [045]: 1007
+24: 29/1800: 5.6S 132.0E: 090 [165]: 025 [045]: 1007
+36: 30/0600: 6.2S 131.2E: 120 [225]: 030 [055]: 1005
+48: 30/1800: 7.0S 130.4E: 155 [285]: 030 [055]: 1005
+60: 01/0600: 7.6S 129.9E: 200 [375]: 025 [045]: 1007
+72: 01/1800: 8.2S 129.5E: 250 [465]: 020 [035]: 1009
REMARKS:
Ex-TC Kirrily has continued to weaken during the past 6 hours. The latest
position fix is based on an exposed LLCC evident in near-IR and microwave
images. The system continues to be affected by moderate northeasterly wind shear
and deep convection has become increasingly disorganised. Dvorak DT 1.5 based on
shear pattern with a poorly organised, exposed LLCC. MET=PAT=1.5 but FT held at
2.0.
The LLCC has been nearly stationary for the past few hours and recent microwave
images indicate that the mid-level centre is displaced to its southwest. Most
NWP model forecasts indicate further shearing of the mid-level centre away from
the weak LLCC. Forecast movement of a shallow LLCC is towards the west under the
influence of a ridge to the south. If the low becomes more vertically organised,
mid-level steering may move it towards the southwest and into a slightly more
favourable environment with reduced vertical wind shear. However, even if the
low deepens, it is unlikely to reach TC intensity within the next 2 days.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
There will be no further bulletins for this system unless it reintensifies.
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