SW Pacific: INVEST 97P (subtropical?)

[Chacor]

20/0830 UTC 29.0S 160.5E T2.0/2.0 97P -- Southwest Pacific
20/0230 UTC 29.2S 160.2E ST2.5 97P -- Southwest Pacific



Interesting position for it to be in.

[Chacor]

KNES satellite history:

20/0830 UTC 29.0S 160.5E T2.0/2.0 97P
20/0230 UTC 29.2S 160.2E ST2.5 97P
19/2030 UTC 29.5S 160.0E T2.0/2.0 INVEST
19/1430 UTC 30.0S 159.8E ST3.0 INVEST

WWPS20 KNES 200916

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (97P)

B. 20/0830Z

C. 29.0S

D. 160.5E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T2.0/2.0/S0.0/12HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...CONVECTION STARTING TO WRAP AROUND CENTER WITH 2-3/10
BANDING ON LOG 10 SPIRAL WHICH YIELDS DT=2.0. MET STANDS AT 1.5 WHEREAS
PT AGREES WITH DT. FT BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

20/0737Z 29.2S 160.8E SSMIS
20/0754Z 29.3S 160.7E SSMI


...EVANS

[Chacor]

The BoM can't even agree with itself, apparently:

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, SYDNEY
0524UTC 20 APRIL 2009.
GALE WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN AREA.
Please Be Aware:
Wind gusts may be a further 40 per cent stronger than the averages
given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
AT 04200400UTC A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM [990HPA] WITH MAIN
CENTRE NEAR 30S160.5E, EXPECTED NEAR 29S161E [990HPA] AT 04201200UTC
AND NEAR 29S162E [990HPA] AT 04202100UTC.

AREA AFFECTED
28S155.5E TO 28S160E TO 34S160E TO 34S155E TO 28S155.5E

FORECAST
SE/SW WINDS 34/40 KNOTS [CLOCKWISE AROUND THE LOW]. WINDS REACHING
40/47 KNOTS WITHIN 120NM TO THE SW OF THE LOW CENTRE.
VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELL.

REMARKS
GALES GRADUALLY CONTRACTING NORTH.

WEATHER SYDNEY

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 0827 UTC 20 April 2009

GALE FORCE WIND WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
A low, central pressure of 994 hpa, was situated near 29S 160E at 200730 UTC,
and was moving slowly east. The low is expected near 29S 161E at 201800 UTC and
29S 162E at 210600 UTC.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 180 nautical miles of the low in the northeastern area of warning
responsibility.
FORECAST
Clockwise winds 30/35 knots. Rough to very rough seas on a moderate to heavy
swell.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732200221 or satellite to SAC 41
through Land Earth Station Perth 222.

WEATHER BRISBANE

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

Wow that is rather south for such a system to be in, still does look interesting, maybe marginal warm core?
Does look a little subtropical I have to admit...

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Looks like a tropical system already.

[HURAKAN]

Very interesting little system.

[HURAKAN]

I think this image shows that this system has lost its non-tropical characteristics. Completely detached.

[Derek Ortt]

that would probably be a TC in the Atlantic

[Derek Ortt]

odd that JT has nothing on the system. Hopefully, this does not end up like that CPAC hurricane from 2006... where advisories, for reasons unknown, were not issued by CPHC

[HURAKAN]

that would probably be a TC in the Atlantic

Agree 100%.





The poor, little guy is being ignored by the agencies.

[KWT]

Yeah I think it would be a TC in the Atlantic of some sort.

[HURAKAN]

[Chacor]

The poor, little guy is being ignored by the agencies.

You have to remember criteria for declaring a TC is different in this basin from the Atlantic/EPac/WPac. Furthermore, outside of NHC/CPHC and Meteo France, no other agency officially warns on subtropical cyclones. Personally I think maybe the BoM could've gone further than just calling it a "complex low pressure area", especially around the time of the 2230Z VIS you posted, but I don't think BoM did anything wrong here.

[HurricaneRobert]

I think technically it's in Fiji's area of responsibility (or was).

ETA: actually it's Wellington's.

[somethingfunny]

odd that JT has nothing on the system. Hopefully, this does not end up like that CPAC hurricane from 2006... where advisories, for reasons unknown, were not issued by CPHC

I don't remember that system at all.

[Chacor]

I think technically it's in Fiji's area of responsibility (or was).

ETA: actually it's Wellington's.

No appreciable difference, as BoM is warning on it for METAREA 10 high seas, and west of 162E it is BoM not Wellington or Fiji.

[HURAKAN]

[Derek Ortt]

Australia tends to go with the definition that the storm needs to form in the tropics to be a TC

Big argument on that (over the Brazil hurricane) at the 2004 AMS conference