WPAC: 96W INVEST = TCFA Cancelled

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Chacor
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WPAC: 96W INVEST = TCFA Cancelled

#1 Postby Chacor » Tue Apr 28, 2009 10:08 pm

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1010 HPA NEAR 13N 115E ALMOST STATIONARY.

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#2 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Apr 29, 2009 9:05 am

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.4N 117.3E,
APPROXIMATELY 215 NM WEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND BROKEN
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. A 282323Z
TRMM PASS SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING CURVING INTO THE EASTERN
FLANK OF THE SYSTEM WITH BROKEN CONVECTIVE BANDING TO THE SOUTH.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND LOCATED UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND POLEWARD
OUTFLOW APPEARS TO BE SUPPRESSED BY SURFACE RIDGING TO THE NORTH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
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#3 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Apr 29, 2009 9:08 am

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#4 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Apr 29, 2009 3:59 pm

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Looking a lot healthier.
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Re: WPAC: 96W INVEST

#5 Postby Hurricanehink » Wed Apr 29, 2009 5:48 pm

TCFA.

WTPN21 PGTW 292300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 225 NM RADIUS OF 13.6N 117.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 292030Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 117.2E. THE SYSTEM IS
QUASI-STATIONARY.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.4N
117.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 117.2E, APPROXIMATELY 230 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 291109Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOW A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT HAS CONSOLIDATED AND HAS BEGUN
TO INTENSIFY. IT IS CURRENTLY SHOWING THE 15-20 KNOT WINDS AROUND THE
LLCC AND INCREASED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE LLCC. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO VERY FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS IN A LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE LOCATED OVER THE
LLCC. POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS ALSO BEING ENHANCED BY THE ANTICYCLONE,
CREATING A GOOD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO INCREASED ORGANIZATION OF THE LLCC AND
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
302300Z.//
NNNN
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#6 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Apr 29, 2009 8:18 pm

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#7 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Apr 29, 2009 9:24 pm

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#8 Postby Chacor » Wed Apr 29, 2009 10:32 pm

:eek:

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#9 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Apr 29, 2009 10:59 pm

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#10 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Apr 29, 2009 11:37 pm

30/0157 UTC 12.9N 117.2E T2.0/2.0 96W -- West Pacific
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#11 Postby senorpepr » Thu Apr 30, 2009 1:39 am

From PAGASA::


Severe Weather Bulletin Number ONE
Tropical Cyclone Alert: Tropical Depression "CRISING"

Issued at 11:00 a.m., Thursday, 30 April 2009 The Low Pressure Area West of Mindoro has developed into a Tropical Depression and was named "CRISING".
Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 a.m.) 380 kms West of San Jose, Occidental Mindoro

Coordinates: 12.8°N, 117.2°E

Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 55 kph near the center

Movement: Quasi-stationary

Forecast Positions/Outlook: Friday morning:
350 kms West of San Jose, Occidental Mindoro

Saturday morning:
320 kms West of San Jose, Occidental Mindoro

Sunday morning:
360 kms West of San Jose, Occidental Mindoro
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#12 Postby somethingfunny » Thu Apr 30, 2009 1:57 am

Woo-hoo! First TC of the WPAC season! 8-)
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#13 Postby Chacor » Thu Apr 30, 2009 2:43 am

Not exactly, neither JMA or JTWC have commenced warnings.
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Re:

#14 Postby somethingfunny » Thu Apr 30, 2009 3:07 am

Chacor wrote:Not exactly, neither JMA or JTWC have commenced warnings.


:(

Oh well, one of those three invests ought to turn into something. This is just about the time of year when the WPAC gets its first typhoon.
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#15 Postby senorpepr » Thu Apr 30, 2009 7:39 am

PAGASA has just raised Signal 1 (30-60 kph) for the following provinces:

Palawan
Cuyo Island
Calamian Group of Islands
Occidental Mindoro
Lubang Island



Severe Weather Bulletin Number TWO
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Tropical Depression "CRISING"
Issued at 5:00 p.m., Thursday, 30 April 2009

Tropical Depression "CRISING" has maintained its strength and remained almost stationary for the past 6 hours.

Location of Center:
(as of 4:00 p.m.) 290 kms West of San Jose, Occidental Mindoro

Coordinates: 12.6°N, 118.3°E

Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 55 kph near the center

Movement: Almost stationary

Forecast Positions/Outlook:
Friday afternoon:
270 kms West of San Jose, Occidental Mindoro

Saturday afternoon:
260 kms West of San Jose, Occidental Mindoro

Sunday afternoon:
250 kms West of San Jose, Occidental Mindoro or
240 kms North of Puerto Princesa City
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#16 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Apr 30, 2009 7:57 am

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Re: WPAC: 96W INVEST=TCFA issued

#17 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Apr 30, 2009 5:37 pm

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Re: WPAC: 96W INVEST=TCFA issued

#18 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Apr 30, 2009 5:38 pm

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WTPN21 PGTW 302200
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/292251Z APR 09//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 292300)//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.6N
117.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 118.0E, APPROXIMATELY 195 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A PARTIAL 301717Z AMSU IMAGE (PLUS RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY)
INDICATE A WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DIS-
ORGANIZED, ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTIVE BURSTS AS WELL AS A DISTINCT
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE BANDING. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
RECENT QUIKSCAT IMAGE DEPICT A MORE ELONGATED, WEAKER LLCC WITH 15-
20 KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS. SHIP REPORTS ALONG BOTH THE WESTERN AND
EASTERN PERIPHERIES INDICATED 10-15 KNOT WINDS WITH SLP NEAR 1006-
1007 MB. THE LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH
WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, HOWEVER, DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE
HINDERED BY THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A STRONGER, LARGER SYSTEM OVER
THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES AS WELL AS SOME DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCTS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AT 1006 MB. BASED ON THE LACK OF CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION AND THE PROXIMITY TO A MORE DOMINANT LOW OVER THE
PHILIPPINES, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.
THIS CANCELS REF A.//
NNNN

TPPN12 PGTW 302101

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 96W (SOUTH CHINA SEA)

B. 30/2030Z

C. XX.X

D. XXX.X

E. N/A/MTSAT

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: POSITION OF LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER COULD NOT
BE FOUND. THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY. THIS WILL BE THE
FINAL FIX ISSUED BY JTWC ON THIS AREA. THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


BRANDON
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#19 Postby senorpepr » Fri May 01, 2009 3:27 pm

Severe Weather Bulletin Number SIX
Tropical Cyclone Alert: Tropical Depression "CRISING"
Issued at 11:00 p.m., Friday, 01 May 2009

Tropical Depression "CRISING" continues to move away from the country in a westward direction.

Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 p.m.) 230 kms Northwest of Puerto Princesa

Coordinates: 11.0°N, 116.8°E

Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 55 kph near the center

Movement: West at 7 kph

Forecast Positions/Outlook:
Saturday evening:
380 kms West Northwest of Puerto Princesa City

Sunday evening:
550 kms West Northwest of Puerto Princesa City


No Public Storm Warning Signals Raised
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#20 Postby senorpepr » Sat May 02, 2009 8:51 am

PAGASA has dropped its support for Crising.
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