WPAC: TD CHAN-HOM (TD 02W)

[KWT]

Very interesting, needs to be watched given its track takes it towards land as something close to a Typhoon.

[HURAKAN]

04/1430 UTC 11.3N 111.4E T3.5/3.5 CHAN-HOM -- West Pacific

[HURAKAN]

Looking good.

[KWT]

Certainly is looking very convectivly active if nothing else at the moment, nice big blow up there!

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 04 MAY 2009 Time : 173000 UTC
Lat : 11:40:45 N Lon : 112:00:00 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.6 / 986.2mb/ 57.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.6 3.7 3.7

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +3.8mb

Center Temp : -77.6C Cloud Region Temp : -78.8C

Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[cycloneye]

WTPN32 PGTW 042100
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 02W (CHAN-HOM) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (CHAN-HOM) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 11.8N 112.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.8N 112.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 12.3N 112.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 13.3N 112.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 14.0N 113.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 14.4N 115.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 15.2N 118.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 16.3N 120.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 18.1N 122.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 11.9N 112.2E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 02W (CHAN-HOM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM
EAST OF NHA TRANG, VIETNAM HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH MUCH
IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.
EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND A 041207Z SSMI NIGHT-TIME VISIBLE
IMAGE SUPPORTED A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LLCC ON THE NORTHEAST EDGE
OF THE DEVELOPING CDO. HOWEVER, THERE IS MARGINAL CONFIDENCE IN
THE CURRENT POSITION DUE TO A LACK OF DECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE
LOWER END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS
UNDER AN IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT WITH ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
TS 02W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TO EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED SOUTHEAST. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 BUT DIVERGE RAPIDLY
AFTERWARDS AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND MAKES LANDFALL. A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS FORECAST UNDER GENERALLY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 14
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z, 050900Z, 051500Z AND 052100Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 01W (KUJIRA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

[HURAKAN]

Typhoon?

[cycloneye]

If its not a Typhoon is very very close.NRL at the 00:00 UTC update has 55kts.

[Chacor]

WTPQ21 RJTD 050000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0902 CHAN-HOM (0902) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050000UTC 11.5N 112.0E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 180NM NORTHWEST 120NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 060000UTC 13.2N 113.4E 85NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 070000UTC 15.2N 116.8E 160NM 70%
MOVE ENE 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 080000UTC 16.3N 119.4E 220NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

WTPN32 PGTW 050300
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 02W (CHAN-HOM) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (CHAN-HOM) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 11.6N 112.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.6N 112.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 12.3N 112.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 13.4N 113.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 13.8N 114.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 14.3N 116.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 15.0N 119.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 15.7N 121.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 16.7N 123.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 11.8N 112.1E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 02W (CHAN-HOM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT
02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z,
051500Z, 052100Z AND 060300Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 01W (KUJIRA)
WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[KWT]

Looks like its weakened again a little bit, looking very messy with only a broad structure and one isolated burst, which is close to the center.

[HURAKAN]

[Derek Ortt]

thing needs to move... likely upwelling

[KWT]

Looks like the inner core it was developing 12hrs ago has all but gone as well.

[cycloneye]

WTPN32 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (CHAN-HOM) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 13.0N 112.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.0N 112.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 13.7N 113.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 14.5N 114.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 15.1N 116.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 15.7N 117.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 16.4N 119.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 17.2N 121.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 18.2N 123.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 13.2N 112.6E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 17 FEET.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 02W (CHAN-HOM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 505 NM
WEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z, 060300Z, 060900Z
AND 061500Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 01W (KUJIRA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

[HURAKAN]

Looking better now.

[KWT]

Still looks a little messy though it has got quite an obvious circulation. As soon as it starts moving more then it may well strength.

[HURAKAN]

Looking a lot better.



NRL: 60 knots

[cycloneye]

60kts

WTPN32 PGTW 060300
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 02W (CHAN-HOM) WARNING NR 011
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (CHAN-HOM) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 13.9N 113.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.9N 113.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 14.6N 114.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 15.4N 116.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 16.0N 118.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 16.6N 120.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 17.2N 121.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 17.8N 122.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 18.5N 123.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 14.1N 113.8E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 02W (CHAN-HOM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 440 NM
WEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
060000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z, 061500Z, 062100Z AND
070300Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 01W (KUJIRA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//