WPAC: TD CHAN-HOM (TD 02W)

Chacor · #81 Postby **Chacor** » Sat May 09, 2009 9:22 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 20N 127E NORTH 10 KT.

Chacor · #82 Postby **Chacor** » Sat May 09, 2009 10:18 pm

It's back... again.

WTPN32 PGTW 100300
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (CHAN-HOM) WARNING NR 024
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (CHAN-HOM) WARNING NR 024 REGENERATED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 18.9N 127.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9N 127.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 19.4N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 20.2N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 21.5N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 19.0N 127.4E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 02W (CHAN-HOM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ISHIGAKI-JIMA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN IMPROVED, TIGHTLY-WRAPPED, BUT FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION FLARING
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY AND DECISION TO
RESUME WARNINGS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS (PGTW),
QUIKSCAT WINDS OF 25-30 KNOTS AND THE WELL-DEFINED (AND IMPROVING)
LLCC. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 100900Z, 101500Z, 102100Z AND 110300Z.//

Chacor · #83 Postby **Chacor** » Sat May 09, 2009 10:19 pm

WDPN32 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (CHAN-HOM)
WARNING NR 24//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 02W (CHAN-HOM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ISHIGAKI-JIMA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN IMPROVED, TIGHTLY-WRAPPED, BUT FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION FLARING
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY AND DECISION TO
RESUME WARNINGS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS (PGTW),
QUIKSCAT WINDS (092104Z) OF 25-30 KNOTS AND THE WELL-DEFINED (AND
IMPROVING) LLCC. TD 02W IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EAST CHINA SEA, WHICH IS ENHANCING POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
3. FORECAST REASONING
A. SYSTEM HAS BEEN REGENERATED AND UPGRADED TO TD STATUS.
B. TD O2W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW-LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A WIDE SPREAD IN THE
TRACK FROM NORTHWARD (NOGAPS, WBAR, GFS) TO NORTHWESTWARD (UKMO,
JGSM). HOWEVER, SOUNDINGS FROM NAZE AND CHICHI-JIMA SUPPORT THE
POSITION AND ORIENTATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE BEST DEPICTED
BY THE UKMO AND JGSM MODELS. THEREFORE, THIS FORECAST FAVORS THE
UKMO/JGSM SOLUTIONS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY
DUE TO THE ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD AND SHOULD WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM. COOLER SST LESS THAN 25C WILL ALSO LEAD TO DISSIPATION
BY TAU 24-36.
FORECAST TEAM: ECHO//

#84 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat May 09, 2009 10:21 pm

The people in the JTWC are kind of crazy. They have killed and revived this system twice already.

#85 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sun May 10, 2009 8:31 am

WTPN32 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (CHAN-HOM) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 20.7N 127.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.7N 127.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 21.9N 127.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 23.1N 127.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 21.0N 127.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 02W (CHAN-HOM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM
SOUTHEAST OF ISHIGAKAJIMA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS
10 FEET. NEXT WARNING AT 102100Z.//
NNNN

#86 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sun May 10, 2009 9:41 pm

They keep it alive.

#87 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon May 11, 2009 9:44 pm

Chacor · #88 Postby **Chacor** » Tue May 12, 2009 9:23 am

JMA is still hanging on to it.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 25N 128E ENE 10 KT.

Chacor · #89 Postby **Chacor** » Tue May 12, 2009 7:38 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 25N 128E NNE 10 KT.

#90 Postby **Cookie** » Wed May 13, 2009 5:23 pm

it must have given up the ghost by now?

WPAC: TD CHAN-HOM (TD 02W)

Re: WPAC: TD CHAN-HOM (TD 02W)

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