GOM: INVEST 90L

[cycloneye]

NHC_ATCF
invest_al902009.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200905181836
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 90, 2009, DB, O, 2009051818, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL902009
AL, 90, 2009051718, , BEST, 0, 175N, 758W, 20, 1013, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2009051800, , BEST, 0, 189N, 756W, 20, 1013, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2009051806, , BEST, 0, 200N, 756W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2009051812, , BEST, 0, 210N, 757W, 20, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2009051818, , BEST, 0, 219N, 758W, 25, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 100, 35, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

Lets continue the discussions and analysis of now invest 90L.To remind the members the threads that start as invests continue to be active until the last advisory is out if it turns into more than a disturbance.

[RL3AO]

You beat me too it.

[Aric Dunn]

oh dear its not even on the NRL site..lol

but nice

[RL3AO]

oh dear its not even on the NRL site..lol

but nice

Its always on the NOAA/NHC site first.

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

[vacanechaser]

dag... that was fast... had just looked for it and it was not there... then came back to the other thread and saw your post cycloneye... good catch...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Aric Dunn]

hehe look how close i was to nailing the coordiantes... lol

mine 22.00° N 75.79° W

there's -----> 219N, 758W

[KWT]

Yep Aric thats indeed where it seems to be, I wonder how well developed any low is and also what direction its heading in...

[ronjon]

NWS Tampa Bay discusses the inconsistency of the models.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
217 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2009

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY)... INTERESTING SCENARIO IN THE
WORKS AS A SLOWING COLD FRONT DRIFTS ACROSS CENTRAL FL AND LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER EASTERN CUBA DEVELOPS. THE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LOW PLACEMENT NEAR OUR WEST COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH THE SURFACE FEATURE AND APPEAR TO BE EVEN LESS CONSISTENT WITH THIS RUN. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS VIABLE THEREFORE
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE. THE BOTTOM LINE... WE WILL REMAIN IN A MOIST UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL RAIN CHANCES TUE AND WED.

.LONG TERM (WED NIGHT-MONDAY)...WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOST LIKELY TO THE WEST OF THE STATE OVER THE GULF. THE GFS IS STILL THE EASTERN OUTLIER OF THE MODELS MOVING THE UPPER LOW OVER THE STATE AND KEEPING THE DOMINANT SFC LOW EAST OF THE AREA...BUT ECMWF AND DGEX CONTINUE TO KEEP THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST OF THE STATE. HAVE THEREFORE NOT MADE MANY CHANGES AND KEPT CLOSE TO THE ECMWF/DGEX SOLNS WITH THE LOW LIFTING NNW THROUGH LATE FRI/EARLY SAT INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

[cycloneye]

oh dear its not even on the NRL site..lol

but nice

Its always on the NOAA/NHC site first.

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

It takes a few minutes to be on the NRL site.

[Derek Ortt]

clear low-level circulation is present now on 1km visible imagery
I am waiting a little longer (probably until tomorrow) before putting a floater image on this, however, Development does not seem to be iminent

[Evil Jeremy]

For the model runs

[Evil Jeremy]

I believe 14 people (including me) guess Monday afternoon. Anyways, lets lock and load, its Hurricane season lol.

[KWT]

Indeed Derek, needs more convection as well I think and it does seem quite small, still its the first system that needs watching this season.

[Aric Dunn]

Yep Aric thats indeed where it seems to be, I wonder how well developed any low is and also what direction its heading in...

well direction is easy.. there is a strong SE flow so it will head NW then probably north as the other low gets going and they interact.

as for development thats more tricky it is clearly tropical the low near cuba so shear is going to be a big factor but some baroclinic enhancement is possible as it interacts with the everything to its west. its going to be interesting the upper low is such that the strongest shear may stay off it long enough since the last couple days its been in a relatively lower shear area.

[tailgater]

Looks like it could be blown apart any minute, or keep relocating with the mid level circ.

[gatorcane]

Which area was tagged an invest, SE GOM or the area in the Southern Bahamas/Northern Coast of Cuba?

Members may be confused at this point where the invest is at (including me)

[Aric Dunn]

well as long as it stays in the vicinity of the upper low than a slight lower shear environment will be present

[tailgater]

Which area was tagged an invest, SE GOM or the area in the Southern Bahamas/Northern Coast of Cuba?

Members may be confused at this point where the invest is at (including me)

Just north of Cuban coast @ 22N 75.7 W

[KWT]

Yep its in a small pocket of lower shear, high shear all around and so this is a marginal situation in terms of development.

[Aric Dunn]

Which area was tagged an invest, SE GOM or the area in the Southern Bahamas/Northern Coast of Cuba?

Members may be confused at this point where the invest is at (including me)

Cuba .. since its the area that is most likely tropical ...

the area in the gulf was going to have to start as a non tropical or sub tropical .. which the non tropical would not get designated as an invest.