INVEST 99W west of Philippines

[Chacor]

Sorry, but as far as I'm concerned, this looks far better than 90L. Don't think anyone could argue that.

[RL3AO]

That whole area as been flaring up. I wasn't surprised to see it tagged today.

[DESTRUCTION5]

That whole area as been flaring up. I wasn't surprised to see it tagged today.

This thing looks twice as good as 90L....and 1 post?

[Category 5]

Not a bad looking system, decent conditions for it. Firing convection too, a feature to watch.

[HURAKAN]

[RL3AO]

Impressive convection.

[Category 5]

[HURAKAN]

Nice circulation but its lacking convection.

[HURAKAN]

http://www.typhoon2000.ph/

[HURAKAN]

[Chacor]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.3N
116.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 114.1E, APPROXIMATELY 500 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HAINAN ISLAND, CHINA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A SMALL, WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH ISOLATED, DISORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION FLARING OVER THE NORTHERN QUADRANT. RECENT SHIP
OBSERVATIONS (VRAC9, AUBE, PCVX) INDICATE 10-15 KNOT WINDS WITH SLP
AS LOW AS 1006.5 MB AT 20/00Z. MICROWAVE IMAGERY (AMSU 20/0140Z AND
SSMIS 19/2340Z) SUPPORTS A DISORGANIZED LLCC WITH POORLY-DEFINED
CONVECTIVE BANDING. OVERALL, THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MARGINAL WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATING THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER
AN INVERTED TROUGH WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS POOR.

[KWT]

Still needs quite a bit of work though it does have a decent circulation. Track takes it away from the ITCZ and so it does have a shot at development at some point.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

[beaufort12]

Thanks to all for the posts. I'm waiting to see what we will get out of this here in Shenzhen.

[HURAKAN]

Again, looking a lot less organized.

[HURAKAN]

GFS doesn't believe this disturbance has any future.

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.6N
113.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 114.1E, APPROXIMATELY 405 NM SOUTH
OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH VERY WEAK
CONVECTION. BANDING FEATURES ARE ALSO VERY WEAK AND CONFINED TO THE
OUTER REACHES OF THE CIRCULATION AS EVIDENCED IN VARIOUS MICROWAVE
IMAGES. AT THIS TIME NO MET DATA SUPPORT A DEFINITIVE LLCC, AND MOST
OF THE TURNING APPEARS TO BE MID-LEVEL. A LARGE CLUSTER OF CLOUDS
NEARER TO THE PHILIPPINES IS MAINLY THE RESULT OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE. OUTFLOW ALOFT HAS WANED SOMEWHAT AS UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGHING BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST, CHOKING OFF A SMALL EQUATORWARD
CHANNEL THAT HAD AIDED IN FUELING VERY DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE AREA
APPROXIMATELY 12 HOURS AGO. HOWEVER, POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS MORE
RECENTLY BEGUN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TRANSITING
THROUGH EASTERN ASIA, AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO DECLINE
AS THE DISTURBANCE TRACKS CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS. OBSERVATIONS FROM XISHA DAO (599810), A LITTLE MORE THAN
TWO DEGREES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE BEST TRACK, INDICATE A ONE
DEGREE SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (SLP) RISE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CURRENT
SLP IS 1010 MB. WINDS ARE ALSO REPORTED AS BEING LIGHT AND
PREDOMINATELY OUT OF THE EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR
DUE TO A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND A PRE-EXISTING AND
WELL-DEVELOPED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Thanks to all for the posts. I'm waiting to see what we will get out of this here in Shenzhen.

Judging from HKO's latest forecast we're due a lot of rain and thunderstorms over the weekend. After an extremely dry first half of May it's nice to see some active weather at last.

James (in Hong Kong.)

[HURAKAN]