INVEST 99W west of Philippines

[beaufort12]

Judging from HKO's latest forecast we're due a lot of rain and thunderstorms over the weekend. After an extremely dry first half of May it's nice to see some active weather at last.

James (in Hong Kong.)

I agree about the active weather. April too was dry, almost 50% below average. It was active here yesterday, had a very intense one-hour thunderstorm here in Luo Hu but almost nothing at the airport. Umbrella didn't help me much. If I add up the forecast precipation amounts it looks like we're due 150mm of rain between now and Sunday night. Of course it comes on the weekend! Robert

[Chacor]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.5N
112.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 111.3E, APPROXIMATELY 200 NM
SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, CHINA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING WITH A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 230208Z AMSU IMAGE SHOWS THE BULK OF
CONVECTION DISPLACED NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER LIKELY DUE TO
THE MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM
HAINAN AND A SHIP REPORT (9VJC5) NEAR THE CENTER SUPPORT 15-20 KNOT
WINDS AND SLP NEAR 1004 WITH 24-HOUR PRESSURE FALLS OF 3.9-4.5 MB.
THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS ASSESSED AS MARGINAL WITH AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW LOCATED JUST WEST OF HAINAN ISLAND AND SOUTHWESTERLY VWS.
INTERACTION WITH LAND IS ALSO HINDERING DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO THE
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.

[HURAKAN]

Likely last hurrah!

[wyq614]

Highest amount of rain in Guangdong Province: 498.1mm

99W has caused a flood flash with 2 deaths.

[CrazyC83]

The center is not in that convection? (i.e. not the Marco of the WPAC)

[beaufort12]

Here in Shenzhen we've received almost 100 mm. I has been raining almost continuously since Saturday morning. I thought we had a lot of rain, but the 500 mm total is quite amazing. I knew from the radar the rainfall was much heavier west of here. Thanks for the actual total!

[Grifforzer]

ABPW10 PGTW 240600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/240600Z-250600ZMAY2009//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.3N
111.3E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

---
overland southern China so it's dead for cyclone development