Bay of Bengal: Severe Cyclonic Storm AILA (02B)

[HURAKAN]

21/0830 UTC 11.5N 84.9E T1.5/1.5 98B -- Bay of Bengal

[HURAKAN]

Lacking organization at the moment.

[salmon123]

TXIO21 KNES 211449


A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (98B)

B. 21/1430Z

C. 14.4N

D. 87.5E

E. FIVE/MET-7

F. T1.5/1.5/S0.0/06HRS

G. IR/EIR/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...2/10 BANDING ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS DT=1.0. MET IS AT 1.0
AND PT IS AT 1.5. FT BASED ON PT AND THE FACT THAT T-NUMBER CANNOT BE
LOWERED AT NIGHT DURING FIRST 48 HOURS PER DVORAK RULES.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

21/1126Z 14.3N 87.9E SSMIS


...EVANS

[theavocado]

The broad nature of this circulation with its strongest winds around the periphary and weaker winds near the center makes it look like it might be categorized as a Monsoon Depression.

[HURAKAN]

Strong convection.

[HURAKAN]

Large system.

[HURAKAN]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.9N 88.1E,
APPROXIMATELY 515 NM SOUTH OF KOLKATA, INDIA. RECENT ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD, POORLY ORGANIZED AREA OF
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A FORMATIVE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. EARLIER IMAGERY SHOWED THE AREA HAD MULTIPLE CIRCULATION
CENTERS, BUT THE SYSTEM HAS CONSOLIDATED INTO A SINGLE CIRCULATION
IN LAST 12 HOURS. A 211138Z WINDSAT IMAGE SHOWS 10 TO 15 KT WINDS
CLOSE TO THE LLCC WITH A BROAD REGION OF 20 TO 25 KT SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. A 211126Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS A
BROAD LLCC WITH SCATTERED POCKETS OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER
AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED UNDER THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LOW
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
12 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

[salmon123]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.9N
88.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 87.3E, APPROXIMATELY 500 NM
SOUTH OF KOLKATA, INDIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING MONSOON DEPRESSION IN THE
BAY OF BENGAL. A 220015Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE CONFIRMS THAT A DISTINCT
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE OUT OF THIS
AREA OF BROAD TURNING. HOWEVER, THE CIRCULATION IS SOMEWHAT
ELONGATED AND WEAK AT THE CENTER. CURRENTLY THE DEEPEST CONVECTION
IS BIASED TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE LEAVING THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE NEARLY DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION. STRONGER SOUTH-
WESTERLIES FLANK THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION, WHILE
WEAKER EASTERLIES CLOSE OFF THE CIRCULATION TO THE NORTH. THE
SYSTEM IS LOCATED UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, AND ENVIRON-
MENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR DUE TO IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION OF
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, INCREASED CONVECTION, AND
GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.

[salmon123]

Morning’s low pressure area over southeast and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal now lies over east central Bay of Bengal and neighbourhood. Current meteorological analysis and numerical weather prediction models indicate the system is likely to concentrate into a depression during next 48 hours

[Chacor]

WTIN20 DEMS 220700

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
------------------------
DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 22-05-2009 (.)

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN
(THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR
NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.)

A LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS FORMED OVER SOUTHEAST AND ADJOINING
SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL.CURRENT INTENSITY IS T1.0 RPT T1.0.
IT IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY INTO A DEPRESSION,

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER ANDAMAN SEA,
SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA.

RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA PASSES ALONG 20 DEG.N LATITUDE
OVER INDIAN REGION(.)

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Looks much better organized:

[KWT]

ECM still develops this into quite a strong cyclone, esp given the region of the world it is in, a big cyclone is never a good thing with regards to flooding risks.

[Category 5]

I'm only hoping most of these models are wrong but it looks quite likely that this will at least develop.

[Derek Ortt]

this one looks like MAJOR trouble. Almost certain this will be a large loss of life cyclone. Do not like the ECMWF one bit

[KWT]

Yep Derek a big strong cyclone will be a big flood maker which is a huge killer in this region of the world.

Hopefully the ECM is way too agressive but even a fairly minimal cyclone has the risk of causing large issues.

[cycloneye]

ABIO10 PGTW 221800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/221800Z-231800ZMAY2009//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 87.3E,
IS NOW NEAR 15.1N 86.5E, APPROXIMATELY 240 NM SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPAT-
NAM, INDIA. RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
VERY BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A CONSOLIDATING MONSOON
DEPRESSION THAT COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE BAY OF BENGAL. THE VAST AREA
OF CONVECTION IS SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
221245Z QUIKSCAT SCATTEROMETRY PASS OUTLINES THE WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH
WIND BARBS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE STRONGER UNFLAGGED WINDS OF UP TO 40
KNOTS ARE WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT
THE SYSTEM IS UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOP-
MENT OF THE CYCLONE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
12 TO 17 KNOTS AND MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AT 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.

[Derek Ortt]

this would probably be named in the Atlantic. There is a clear closed LLC with strong winds.

That said, development during the next 24 hours should be slow, then we should see RI

[KWT]

Really RI Derek?
Given this has a good 72-96hrs in water that is quite worrying to hear, just got to hope that conditions arent quite as good as expected by the models otherwise we are looking at a bad situation as you say.

[HURAKAN]