EAST COAST : Tropical Depression ONE

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jinftl
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Re: EAST COAST : Tropical Depression ONE

#181 Postby jinftl » Thu May 28, 2009 11:45 am

Not to imply the 'sky is falling' or a great injustice has been done by most pros not forecasting even a td to form...quite honestly, i have seen worse thunderstorms at my house the last week than this td could probably throw my way...but it does call in to question, at least in my mind, what 'thresholds' are imposed by humans, and which are imposed by nature?

The June 1 start to the season....100% imposed by humans.

The 80 deg threshold for development....imposed by humans but has significant basis in nature. Is the 80 deg theshold an absolute. Nope. Not at least for minimal development.

Forecasting off model runs....100% driven by humans, as is the data that drives the result. Most of us...and i include myself in this...wait for model runs, and then derive forecasts and beliefs in general on tropical systems. That will work alot of the time...not all of the time.

Any threshold we have created is subject to question, debate, and error. These are not absolutes. And to anyone who doesn't get the debate over such a system as this one and the broader implications, why read all of these posts and then post about it...i guess you're one of us, but i won't tell.
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Re: EAST COAST : Tropical Depression ONE

#182 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu May 28, 2009 11:50 am

jinftl wrote:Not to imply the 'sky is falling' or a great injustice has been done by most pros not forecasting even a td to form...quite honestly, i have seen worse thunderstorms at my house the last week than this td could probably throw my way...but it does call in to question, at least in my mind, what 'thresholds' are imposed by humans, and which are imposed by nature?

The June 1 start to the season....100% imposed by humans.

The 80 deg threshold for development....imposed by humans but has significant basis in nature. Is the 80 deg theshold an absolute. Nope. Not at least for minimal development.

Forecasting off model runs....100% driven by humans, as is the data that drives the result. Most of us...and i include myself in this...wait for model runs, and then derive forecasts and beliefs in general on tropical systems. That will work alot of the time...not all of the time.

Any threshold we have created is subject to question, debate, and error. These are not absolutes.


I agree and as a Space/atmospheric Physicist i can tell you that models dont even account for 1/2 the actual physics involved, well probably even way less than that..

there are some serious physical flaws that just cannot at our level of technology account for.. just too many variables
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Re: EAST COAST : Tropical Depression ONE

#183 Postby vbhoutex » Thu May 28, 2009 11:55 am

Back on the topic please!!!
Take this discussion to another thread in the Talkin' Tropics forum.
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Re: EAST COAST : Tropical Depression ONE

#184 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu May 28, 2009 11:57 am

latest microwave... not very revealing but some deep convection over the center ... center almost on the northern edge of that convection..

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#185 Postby HURAKAN » Thu May 28, 2009 12:01 pm

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#186 Postby capepoint » Thu May 28, 2009 12:12 pm

A stark reminder??????????????? Who cares that nobody called it correctly, there was nothing to call. They said it had a slight chance of forming. It did. Nobody got killed. Nothing got blown-down. The hand-full of mariners that sailed thru it would not have known it was a depression if someone hadn't told them. If this had been something serious, I'm sure that it would have had more attention given to it, but it is not, was not, and will not be of any serious consequence to anybody, including mariners. I'm not planning on suing anybody, and I lived through it yesterday and survived. :ggreen:

as far as water temps...this time of year the gulf stream is warm, but the waters on either side of it are cold. the surf temps here are barely getting into the low 70s. North of hatteras, the labrador current is very cold. the result is that there are a lot of fingers and eddies of warm water mixed with the colder water. so that just because one spot of water may be 76-78 degrees, 15 miles away the surface temp may be 68-70. I don't know if they figure this into the forcasts. Later in the summer, it will be pretty much about 80 everywhere.
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Re: EAST COAST : Tropical Depression ONE

#187 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 28, 2009 12:13 pm

Image
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Re: Recon : Tropical Depression ONE

#188 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Thu May 28, 2009 12:18 pm

wxman57 wrote:No need to waste recon resources on this system.




When I lived aboard the USS Chuck Wagon (CVN-70) back in the 1980s, and my work was finished and I wasn't sleepy, I'd go up to the island to the observation deck and watch them shoot and retrieve the planes. The F-14 Tomcat was coolest, because it used after-burner during launch.

Even when we were in the middle of nowhere, they'd be wasting all kinds of jet fuel, just getting the pilots and air crews, and flight deck crews, some practice. The pilots were required to do a minimum number of day and night launches and traps to remain proficient.


Now, on the one hand, nothing is scheduled today, and the system will be getting pretty far out to sea by the time they could schedule a flight for tomorrow, but if they have a WC-130J scheduled to fly a training mission today anyway, they could top off the tanks and get some realistic training.

I'm assuming the random URNT 10/11 messages I see are sent during these training missions.

URNT11 KNHC 201558
97779 16014 40294 89400 30000 06030 06530 /3139
RMK AF302 WXWXA 090520145922302 OB 05
SWS = 26 KTS
;
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#189 Postby HURAKAN » Thu May 28, 2009 12:19 pm

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Re: Recon : Tropical Depression ONE

#190 Postby HURAKAN » Thu May 28, 2009 12:22 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote:I'm assuming the random URNT 10/11 messages I see are sent during these training missions.

URNT11 KNHC 201558
97779 16014 40294 89400 30000 06030 06530 /3139
RMK AF302 WXWXA 090520145922302 OB 05
SWS = 26 KTS
;


Yes, the WXWXA are training missions.
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#191 Postby HURAKAN » Thu May 28, 2009 12:30 pm

Talk about improvement in 24 hrs!

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Re: MODEL GUIDANCE : Tropical Depression ONE

#192 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 28, 2009 12:36 pm

The model made the run before it was classified,that is why they still have 91L.

12z GFDL

Image

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: MODEL GUIDANCE : Tropical Depression ONE

#193 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Thu May 28, 2009 12:40 pm

:uarrow: :uarrow:

I though mods always embedded their links inside the URL boxes.


Anyway, does the model lose TD #1 in Maine?


Not that I expect it, but it would be interesting if the first watch of the year was for coastal Maine...
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Re: EAST COAST : Tropical Depression ONE

#194 Postby TropicalWXMA » Thu May 28, 2009 12:40 pm

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#195 Postby TropicalWXMA » Thu May 28, 2009 12:43 pm

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#196 Postby HURAKAN » Thu May 28, 2009 12:46 pm

:uarrow: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

The window to the right is not correlated with the storm. There seems to be an error.
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#197 Postby HURAKAN » Thu May 28, 2009 12:50 pm

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The GFDL was started in the wrong location.
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#198 Postby HURAKAN » Thu May 28, 2009 12:56 pm

240
WHXX04 KWBC 281722
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 91L

INITIAL TIME 12Z MAY 28

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 37.2 71.7 45./14.0
6 37.9 70.6 57./11.6
12 38.5 68.8 73./15.3
18 39.4 67.2 60./15.0
24 40.5 65.8 52./15.4
30 42.0 65.2 21./16.5

STORM DISSIPATED AT 30 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

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#199 Postby TropicalWXMA » Thu May 28, 2009 12:57 pm

Latest MODIS DIRECT image from SSEC/WISC:

Image
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#200 Postby Cainer » Thu May 28, 2009 12:59 pm

Not sure if it's been mentioned before, but this isn't the first time that we have had a May system for 3 consecutive years: 1932-34 also had a system forming every May.

In regards to TD 01, It was a shock for me to wake up and see this, especially remembering how it looked before I went to bed last night! Anyway, I think it has a decent shot at making TS status before getting swept out to sea.
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