EAST COAST : Tropical Depression ONE

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HURAKAN
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#21 Postby HURAKAN » Tue May 26, 2009 11:35 am

The rotation is quite impressive when you accelerate the loop.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 261245.GIF

Just like with 90L, this is against it.
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Re: Invest 91L East Coast

#22 Postby tailgater » Tue May 26, 2009 11:38 am

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#23 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue May 26, 2009 11:45 am

just got done looking at the 1 km loop ... there is a rapidly organizing tight low taking shape right now.. the next big question and will determine development.. of sub tropical .. is if we get enough convection firing near that center ( from the trend over the last few hours it seems to be trying to do just that) .. pretty sure the temp gradient is there.. next couple hours are going to be interesting, convection should begin to firing here very shortly.. low level convergence is up quite a bit from earlier as well as upper divergence..very interesting
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RECON : Tropical Depression ONE

#24 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 26, 2009 11:46 am

First mission will depart at 1:30 PM EDT on Wednesday.

Plan of the Day
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
NOUS42 KNHC 261630
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1230 PM EDT TUE 26 MAY 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z MAY 2009
WSPOD NUMBER.....09-002

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (OFF CAROLINA COAST)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 27/2100Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 27/1730Z
D. 34.0N 74.5W
E. 27/2030Z TO 28/0030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 28/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE
C. 28/0145Z
D. 35.5N 73.0W
E. 28/0500Z TO 28/0830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE FIX NEAR 37N 71W
AT 28/1800Z.



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#25 Postby HURAKAN » Tue May 26, 2009 11:48 am

I would love to do some Google Earth graphics!!!
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Re: Invest 91L East Coast

#26 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue May 26, 2009 11:50 am

low level convergence still increasing..

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#27 Postby HURAKAN » Tue May 26, 2009 11:50 am

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#28 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue May 26, 2009 11:53 am

center is located here...
30.70° N 73.79° W

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#29 Postby HURAKAN » Tue May 26, 2009 11:59 am

Image

Image
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#30 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue May 26, 2009 12:17 pm

funny thing... the system will be accelerating out to see by that time tomorrow... lol

and over ssts in the low 60's!!!

whats the point... save the fuel

or go sooner while over the gulf stream ..
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#31 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue May 26, 2009 12:20 pm

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#32 Postby HURAKAN » Tue May 26, 2009 12:31 pm

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Re: Model Guidance : INVEST 91L

#33 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 26, 2009 12:36 pm

12z GFDL


WHXX04 KWBC 261724
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 91L

INITIAL TIME 12Z MAY 26

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 29.6 75.5 355./14.0
6 30.2 75.4 12./ 6.6
12 31.0 75.5 352./ 8.2
18 32.1 75.4 4./10.9
24 33.2 74.9 23./11.9
30 34.3 74.3 32./11.9
36 35.4 73.6 29./12.3
42 36.8 72.6 37./15.7
48 38.0 71.1 53./17.4
54 39.0 69.3 59./17.2
60 40.0 67.6 61./16.1
66 40.9 65.7 63./16.9
72 41.9 64.4 54./14.4
78 43.1 62.9 50./16.1

STORM DISSIPATED AT 78 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

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#34 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue May 26, 2009 12:38 pm

STORM DISSIPATED AT 78 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.



not surprised it will be over very cold water .... and being absorbed into the trough ..
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Re: Model Guidance : INVEST 91L

#35 Postby jinftl » Tue May 26, 2009 12:39 pm

What do the models say in terms of possible form/intensity along with the forecast tracks?
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Re: Model Guidance : INVEST 91L

#36 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue May 26, 2009 12:40 pm

jinftl wrote:What do the models say in terms of possible form/intensity along with the forecast tracks?

still waiting on most of the guidance...ships takes it tp 43 kts i believe..


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Re: Model Guidance : INVEST 91L

#37 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 26, 2009 12:43 pm

GFDL takes it up to 40 kts when it passes to the east of OuterBanks.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation
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Re: Model Guidance : INVEST 91L

#38 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 26, 2009 12:55 pm

12z HWRF

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#39 Postby HURAKAN » Tue May 26, 2009 12:55 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2009

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ALONG A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N77W INTO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR
29N75W AND CONTINUING TO 26N73W. THIS ACTIVITY IS FURTHER
SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE
NE GULF...FLORIDA AND THE FAR WRN SW NORTH ATLC WATERS PRODUCING
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE N OF 22N BETWEEN 68W-79W. THE SURFACE LOW
AND SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE NWD DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INCREASING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT E OF THE DEVELOPING LOW.
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Re: Recon : INVEST 91L

#40 Postby wxman57 » Tue May 26, 2009 12:58 pm

cycloneye wrote:First mission will depart at 1:30 PM EDT on Tuesday.... snip...


You meant Wednesday, right? There's no recon scheduled for today, is there?
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