EAST COAST : Tropical Depression ONE

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Re: EAST COAST : Tropical Depression ONE

#201 Postby wxman57 » Thu May 28, 2009 1:02 pm

Just comparing its appearance now vs. this morning, it looks no better organized. In fact, tops have been warming for the past few hours, an indication of weakening. So perhaps it already reached its peak. I can't see naming it without evidence of 39 mph winds, with convection decreasing, and the center not being beneath the convection.
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Re: EAST COAST : Tropical Depression ONE

#202 Postby HURAKAN » Thu May 28, 2009 1:14 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 28 MAY 2009 Time : 171500 UTC
Lat : 37:30:56 N Lon : 70:30:16 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
1.8 /1010.2mb/ 28.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
1.8 2.1 2.7

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -51.7C Cloud Region Temp : -37.9C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.2T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************
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Derek Ortt

#203 Postby Derek Ortt » Thu May 28, 2009 1:21 pm

That's a raw T number, Sandy... the CI is the number to pay attention to
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Re: EAST COAST : Tropical Depression ONE

#204 Postby Category 5 » Thu May 28, 2009 1:22 pm

This was absolutely nothing yesterday, just goes to show ya.

This is why I'm a met major. Never a dull moment.
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#205 Postby HURAKAN » Thu May 28, 2009 1:23 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:That's a raw T number, Sandy... the CI is the number to pay attention to


I know, just wanted to show how elevated the raw number is compared to the other ones.
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Re: EAST COAST : Tropical Depression ONE

#206 Postby Evil Jeremy » Thu May 28, 2009 1:24 pm

I was taking my History exam this morning, and while I was trying to concentrate on Germany in World War II, my teacher, who knows I love the weather, comes out and says we have our first Tropical Depression. I hated that lol.
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#207 Postby wyq614 » Thu May 28, 2009 1:27 pm

We are human beings, no gods, no computers, and even gods and computers may fail. We all know that TC forecast is not an easy thing. Let's stop blaming the pro mets, something unusual always occurs. But anyway, we should respect all the opinions, professional or non-professional and no matter whether it sounds strange or not. "little chance", "dead" should not be easy words.

Back to TD 1, as an Asian, I may know little about the climatology of North Atlantic, but I personally think it is hard for the system to be named even with the aid of Gulf Stream and low wind shear, and it is being ejected to the NE with a moderate to high speed, it should have a slight chance to be named in the #2, if it still can't make it in #2, Ana will remain in the lista de espera.
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#208 Postby HURAKAN » Thu May 28, 2009 1:29 pm

Image

Cooler SST and Dmin may be taking its toll.
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Re: EAST COAST : Tropical Depression ONE

#209 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 28, 2009 1:32 pm

28/1745 UTC 37.3N 70.4W T2.0/2.0 91L -- Atlantic

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html
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Re: EAST COAST : Tropical Depression ONE

#210 Postby TropicalWXMA » Thu May 28, 2009 1:34 pm

A few more model outputs:

Image

Image

Image
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Re: EAST COAST : Tropical Depression ONE

#211 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 28, 2009 1:43 pm

ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 28 MAY 2009 Time : 174500 UTC
Lat : 37:34:16 N Lon : 70:22:50 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
1.9 /1009.6mb/ 29.0kt



Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
1.9 2.3 2.7

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -49.3C Cloud Region Temp : -37.7C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.2T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... t/adt.html
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Re: MODEL GUIDANCE : Tropical Depression ONE

#212 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 28, 2009 2:18 pm

WHXX01 KWBC 281852
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1852 UTC THU MAY 28 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE (AL012009) 20090528 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090528 1800 090529 0600 090529 1800 090530 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 37.4N 70.2W 39.2N 67.8W 41.5N 64.6W 44.0N 60.4W
BAMD 37.4N 70.2W 38.8N 66.2W 40.1N 61.4W 41.1N 55.9W
BAMM 37.4N 70.2W 39.0N 67.0W 41.0N 63.2W 43.0N 58.2W
LBAR 37.4N 70.2W 38.7N 66.5W 39.5N 62.1W 39.6N 57.1W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 39KTS 41KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 39KTS 41KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090530 1800 090531 1800 090601 1800 090602 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 46.3N 56.2W 51.5N 52.7W 57.8N 55.9W 62.8N 60.8W
BAMD 41.2N 50.3W 36.9N 42.1W 31.8N 38.0W 29.3N 34.7W
BAMM 44.4N 52.5W 42.6N 44.3W 37.4N 40.6W 32.6N 36.1W
LBAR 38.9N 52.2W 36.1N 44.6W 31.1N 41.4W 25.5N 43.7W
SHIP 43KTS 32KTS 18KTS 0KTS
DSHP 43KTS 32KTS 18KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 37.4N LONCUR = 70.2W DIRCUR = 50DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 36.1N LONM12 = 72.9W DIRM12 = 45DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 34.4N LONM24 = 74.6W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

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Re: EAST COAST : Tropical Depression ONE

#213 Postby tolakram » Thu May 28, 2009 2:19 pm

Looks to me like the convection has dramatically decreased and the tops are blowing away. It might have run out of warm water.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-rgb.html
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Re: EAST COAST : Tropical Depression ONE

#214 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 28, 2009 2:20 pm

18z Best Track update:

AL, 01, 2009052818, , BEST, 0, 374N, 702W, 30, 1006, TD, 34,

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/
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Re: EAST COAST : Tropical Depression ONE

#215 Postby tolakram » Thu May 28, 2009 2:29 pm

And just like that ... new convection firing.

Image

MIMIC
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... npage.html
Image
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Re: EAST COAST : Tropical Depression ONE

#216 Postby tgenius » Thu May 28, 2009 2:31 pm

It looks semi-healthy.. wouldn't be surprised if it gets upgraded at 5 or 11.
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#217 Postby KWT » Thu May 28, 2009 2:40 pm

Its got to hold that convection for a little while longer I think before it gets upgraded but its certainly impressive considering it weren't even looking all that good at all yesterday, but it does look decent enough now!

Small system as well.
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Re: EAST COAST : Tropical Depression ONE

#218 Postby jinftl » Thu May 28, 2009 2:41 pm

Considering the latitude and water temps, actually looking fairly healthy....appears to have low shear as there is at least the appearance of outflow in most directions as of the latest image. Going to be a td still at 5pm at a minimum.
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Re: EAST COAST : Tropical Depression ONE

#219 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 28, 2009 2:43 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 28 MAY 2009 Time : 184500 UTC
Lat : 37:41:26 N Lon : 70:07:01 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.1 /1008.2mb/ 31.0kt



Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.1 2.5 3.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -39.8C Cloud Region Temp : -36.2C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.75 ARC in MD GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.2T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
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#220 Postby KWT » Thu May 28, 2009 2:48 pm

That CI is still going up, if it can hold that 3 hour average of 2.5 we may well see Ana in the next 12hrs, of course big if but we may see our first named system soon. Whatever happens TD1 shouldn't last long.
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