EAST COAST : Tropical Depression ONE

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HURAKAN
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Re: EAST COAST : Tropical Depression ONE

#241 Postby HURAKAN » Thu May 28, 2009 4:13 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 28 MAY 2009 Time : 201500 UTC
Lat : 37:37:24 N Lon : 69:35:59 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.4 /1005.8mb/ 34.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.4 2.6 3.0

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -19.6C Cloud Region Temp : -35.4C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.58 ARC in MD GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.2T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************
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Re: EAST COAST : Tropical Depression ONE

#242 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 28, 2009 4:14 pm

CI is still creeping upwards now to 2.4



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 28 MAY 2009 Time : 201500 UTC
Lat : 37:37:24 N Lon : 69:35:59 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.4 /1005.8mb/ 34.0kt



Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.4 2.6 3.0

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -19.6C Cloud Region Temp : -35.4C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.58 ARC in MD GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.2T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
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Re: EAST COAST : Tropical Depression ONE

#243 Postby hurricanefloyd5 » Thu May 28, 2009 4:20 pm

if winds are at 34kts then that would make it TS ANA right with winds at 39mph that would be TS.ANA if I am not mistaken with winds that high right?
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Re: EAST COAST : Tropical Depression ONE

#244 Postby jinftl » Thu May 28, 2009 4:21 pm

i believe 34kts = 39mph

in line with when the NHC issues wind probabilities for an area as "probability of winds over 34kts" as the ts threshold

hurricanefloyd5 wrote:if winds are at 34kts then that would make it TS ANA right with winds at 39mph that would be TS.ANA if I am not mistaken with winds that high right?
Last edited by jinftl on Thu May 28, 2009 4:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: EAST COAST : Tropical Depression ONE

#245 Postby WmE » Thu May 28, 2009 4:22 pm

hurricanefloyd5 wrote:if winds are at 34kts then that would make it TS ANA right with winds at 39mph that would be TS.ANA if I am not mistaken with winds that high right?

Yeah that would be TS force.
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#246 Postby KWT » Thu May 28, 2009 4:29 pm

Dvorak estimates very close now, of course NHC my not upgrade because as wxman57 has stated convection is starting to become increasingly distant from the center. Despite that we have seen such systems get upgraded before and I suspect if we do get upto 2.5 then odds are pretty high that we will get Ana within the next 12hrs, granted a verey short lived Ana.
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#247 Postby HURAKAN » Thu May 28, 2009 4:30 pm

We need to understand that Dvorak isn't everything. I would think that even if Dvorak says 2.5 at 11 PM but the organization of the system hasn't improved, it would remain classified as a TD by the NHC.
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#248 Postby KWT » Thu May 28, 2009 4:32 pm

Yep true Hurakan, dvorak is not the be all and end all. Still it is probably a big factor that is taken into account given we've got no recon in there to sample the winds at the moment.
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#249 Postby HURAKAN » Thu May 28, 2009 4:38 pm

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Re: EAST COAST : Tropical Depression ONE

#250 Postby Category 5 » Thu May 28, 2009 4:39 pm

Yes, its easy to get into the bad habit of worshiping the dvorak especially without recon. Dvorak, while very useful, is only a guide of sorts.

I wish Quikscat would quit missing, that would help the situation.
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Re: EAST COAST : Tropical Depression ONE

#251 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 28, 2009 4:42 pm

Latest CI update stayed the same at 2.4-34 kts.Agree with what HURAKAN said.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 28 MAY 2009 Time : 204500 UTC
Lat : 37:40:27 N Lon : 69:28:00 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.4 /1005.8mb/ 34.0kt



Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.4 2.3 3.0

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -18.5C Cloud Region Temp : -34.0C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.58 ARC in MD GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
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#252 Postby Derek Ortt » Thu May 28, 2009 4:45 pm

and keep in mind that the ADT works best once we have a well-defined eye

ther are other Dvorak intensity estimates that are used
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Re: EAST COAST : Tropical Depression ONE

#253 Postby wxman57 » Thu May 28, 2009 4:46 pm

Those Dvorak numbers are likely misleading as the center is detached from the convection. I doubt winds are anywhere near 39 mph at present. Probably closer to 30 mph and only SE of the center. And at night, Dvorak may be even worse at estimating its intensity as we won't be able to tell how far from the center the convection is firing. It's quite clear that the depression is less organized than it was this morning, regardless of what Dvorak is saying.

Here's a 21Z surface plot with satellite and the location of the center:

Image
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Re: EAST COAST : Tropical Depression ONE

#254 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 28, 2009 4:47 pm

The only way to find surface observations it appears is if a ship is in the area.
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Re: EAST COAST : Tropical Depression ONE

#255 Postby wxman57 » Thu May 28, 2009 5:08 pm

cycloneye wrote:The only way to find surface observations it appears is if a ship is in the area.


There are no obs near the LLC, but observations 150-200 miles north and south of the center indicate pressures of 1011-1014mb. That's not much of a gradient across the depression. And with the lower pressures (1011.3mb) about 200 miles north of the center (as opposed to a strong high center to the north), it's unlikely the winds are very strong near the center.
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Re: EAST COAST : Tropical Depression ONE

#256 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Thu May 28, 2009 5:39 pm

wxman57 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:The only way to find surface observations it appears is if a ship is in the area.


There are no obs near the LLC, but observations 150-200 miles north and south of the center indicate pressures of 1011-1014mb. That's not much of a gradient across the depression. And with the lower pressures (1011.3mb) about 200 miles north of the center (as opposed to a strong high center to the north), it's unlikely the winds are very strong near the center.



I'm not gonna take my dingy out to find out... :lol:
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Re: EAST COAST : Tropical Depression ONE

#257 Postby Cookie » Thu May 28, 2009 5:41 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:The only way to find surface observations it appears is if a ship is in the area.


There are no obs near the LLC, but observations 150-200 miles north and south of the center indicate pressures of 1011-1014mb. That's not much of a gradient across the depression. And with the lower pressures (1011.3mb) about 200 miles north of the center (as opposed to a strong high center to the north), it's unlikely the winds are very strong near the center.



I'm not gonna take my dingy out to find out... :lol:


im coming with
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Re: EAST COAST : Tropical Depression ONE

#258 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 28, 2009 5:50 pm

CI numbers haved remained the same (2.4-34 kts) in the last three updates.Here is a graphic of how the CI and raw numbers data has been reported.

Image
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Re: EAST COAST : Tropical Depression ONE

#259 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 28, 2009 6:20 pm

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#260 Postby Cookie » Thu May 28, 2009 6:32 pm

so what are the chances out of 100% of Ana forming in the next 24 hrs?
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