EAST COAST : Tropical Depression ONE

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Brent
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Re: EAST COAST : Tropical Depression ONE

#261 Postby Brent » Thu May 28, 2009 6:53 pm

Cookie wrote:so what are the chances out of 100% of Ana forming in the next 24 hrs?


I'd say maybe 20%. I highly doubt it. If it's going to happen it'll be before daybreak tomorrow. Water gets cold fast soon.
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Re: EAST COAST : Tropical Depression ONE

#262 Postby Innotech » Thu May 28, 2009 7:21 pm

aand here we goooooo

Im taking a trip up to DC/Maryland/chesapeake bay in early July. I hope nature behaves herself.
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Re: EAST COAST : Tropical Depression ONE

#263 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 28, 2009 7:45 pm

No Ana according to the 00 UTC Best Track update.

AL, 01, 2009052900, , BEST, 0, 378N, 686W, 30, 1006, TD, 34

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest
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Re: EAST COAST : Tropical Depression ONE

#264 Postby jabber » Thu May 28, 2009 7:50 pm

She is going..... Do not thin we will see a named storm out of this one. Fun to watch, early treat.
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Re: EAST COAST : Tropical Depression ONE

#265 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 28, 2009 8:13 pm

CI numbers went up to 2.5-35kt.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 MAY 2009 Time : 001500 UTC
Lat : 38:02:37 N Lon : 68:32:00 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.5 /1005.0mb/ 35.0kt



Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.5 2.8 3.0

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : +13.1C Cloud Region Temp : -16.5C

Scene Type : SHEAR (0.29^ TO DG)

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... dt01L.html
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Re: Recon : Tropical Depression ONE

#266 Postby pojo » Thu May 28, 2009 8:18 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote:Even when we were in the middle of nowhere, they'd be wasting all kinds of jet fuel, just getting the pilots and air crews, and flight deck crews, some practice. The pilots were required to do a minimum number of day and night launches and traps to remain proficient.


Now, on the one hand, nothing is scheduled today, and the system will be getting pretty far out to sea by the time they could schedule a flight for tomorrow, but if they have a WC-130J scheduled to fly a training mission today anyway, they could top off the tanks and get some realistic training.


We only top off the tanks when we need to.... and those are typically the 12 hour flights.
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#267 Postby Chacor » Thu May 28, 2009 8:20 pm

We do really need to stop obsessing over ADT numbers. It's unhelpful and misleading, especially if the NHC pays no attention to them because they may be inaccurate.
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#268 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu May 28, 2009 8:36 pm

28/2345 UTC 37.8N 68.4W T1.5/2.0 01L -- Atlantic

No upgrade based on that data.
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Re:

#269 Postby tailgater » Thu May 28, 2009 8:36 pm

Chacor wrote:We do really need to stop obsessing over ADT numbers. It's unhelpful and misleading, especially if the NHC pays no attention to them because they may be inaccurate.


What will they use if it not Sat. estimates.
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Re: Re:

#270 Postby RL3AO » Thu May 28, 2009 8:41 pm

tailgater wrote:
Chacor wrote:We do really need to stop obsessing over ADT numbers. It's unhelpful and misleading, especially if the NHC pays no attention to them because they may be inaccurate.


What will they use if it not Sat. estimates.


They will use sat estimates, just not ADT as they historically struggle with storms that don't have eyes. They will use TAFB and SAB.
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#271 Postby Cyclone1 » Thu May 28, 2009 8:57 pm

Wow, I'm super late on this one. I just wasn't expecting it at all. o_O

It sure is a pretty little thing. ;D I think me missing this one just proves I may slowly be losing interest. :/
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#272 Postby HURAKAN » Thu May 28, 2009 9:12 pm

Image

Oops!!!
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#273 Postby Cainer » Thu May 28, 2009 9:20 pm

Image
Latest descending Quikscat pass. Two barbs of tropical storm force winds in the heavier rain, but the circulation is still sloppy. I'm guessing they aren't going to upgrade at 11. Maybe, after a good D. Min., we could get Ana at 5, but the odds are getting longer and longer.
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#274 Postby JonathanBelles » Thu May 28, 2009 9:46 pm

Code: Select all

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


The window for the transition to Tropical Storm Status seems to have closed. The LLC is now sheared off with all convection well removed to the east and southeast. Shear is increasing and SST's will decrease. I see little reason to forecast further development.

Edit: Almost forgot the disclaimer, not sure if it is needed here though.
Last edited by JonathanBelles on Thu May 28, 2009 9:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#275 Postby HURAKAN » Thu May 28, 2009 9:46 pm

920
WTNT21 KNHC 290245
TCMAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012009
0300 UTC FRI MAY 29 2009

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 67.8W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 67.8W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.8N 68.6W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 39.1N 65.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 41.2N 60.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 43.4N 55.4W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.1N 67.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


269
WTNT31 KNHC 290246
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012009
1100 PM AST THU MAY 28 2009

...DEPRESSION TURNS TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST...

AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.8 WEST OR ABOUT
255 MILES...405 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS AND
ABOUT 500 MILES...805 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH...26
KM/HR...AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. THE DEPRESSION IS NOT EXPECTED TO THREATEN ANY LAND
AREAS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR
EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE IT MOVES OVER COLDER WATERS. THE SYSTEM IS
THEN EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE BY SATURDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...38.1N 67.8W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 16 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG



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#276 Postby Chacor » Thu May 28, 2009 9:47 pm

FKNT21 KNHC 290246
TCANT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ICAO ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012009
0300 UTC FRI MAY 29 2009

TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20090529/0300Z
TCAC: KNHC
TC: ONE
NR: 003
PSN: N3806 W06748
MOV: ENE 14KT
C: 1006HPA
MAX WIND: 030KT
FCST PSN + 06 HR: 290900 N3846 W06556
FCST MAX WIND + 06 HR: 035KT
FCST PSN + 12 HR: 291500 N3937 W06352
FCST MAX WIND + 12 HR: 035KT
FCST PSN + 18 HR: 292100 N4040 W06137
FCST MAX WIND + 18 HR: 030KT
FCST PSN + 24 HR: 300300 N4145 W05913
FCST MAX WIND + 24 HR: 030KT
RMK THE FORECAST POSITION INFORMATION IN
THIS PRODUCT IS INTERPOLATED FROM
OFFICIAL FORECAST DATA VALID AT 0000...
0600...1200...AND 1800Z.
NXT MSG: 20090529/0900Z

$$
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Re: EAST COAST : Tropical Depression ONE

#277 Postby MGC » Thu May 28, 2009 9:50 pm

Influence of the Gulf Stream strikes again. Never underestimate the power of the stream! Doubt TD 1 is upgraded based on its satellite presentation.....MGC
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Re: ADVISORIES: Tropical Depression ONE

#278 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 28, 2009 9:57 pm

WTNT41 KNHC 290256
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012009
1100 PM AST THU MAY 28 2009

THE LAST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF
THE DEPRESSION WAS BECOMING SOMEWHAT EXPOSED TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE CONVECTION ITSELF HAS SHRUNK A BIT IN SIZE
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND DATA T-NUMBERS HAVE FALLEN TO 1.5
FROM SAB AND REMAIN 2.0 FROM TAFB. A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 2330 UTC
SHOWED A FEW TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE VECTORS THAT APPEAR TO HAVE BEEN
AFFECTED BY RAIN. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING
HELD AT 30 KT.

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE DATA SHOW THAT THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY
HUGGING THE NORTH WALL OF THE GULF STREAM...AND THE FORECAST TRACK
TAKES THE CENTER NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WALL OVER COLDER WATERS
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL ALLOWS FOR
THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
BEFORE THIS HAPPENS...BUT IT WILL HAVE TO HAPPEN SOON. THE GLOBAL
MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL BE
TANGLED WITHIN A BAROCLINIC ZONE TO ITS NORTH WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR IT TO BE EXTRATROPICAL
AT THAT POINT. DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED BY 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM IS
OVERTAKEN BY ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY NEAR NEW
ENGLAND.

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK
AND THE BULK OF THE MODELS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 070/13 AS THE
SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND A LARGE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/0300Z 38.1N 67.8W 30 KT
12HR VT 29/1200Z 39.1N 65.0W 35 KT
24HR VT 30/0000Z 41.2N 60.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 30/1200Z 43.4N 55.4W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG

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#279 Postby HURAKAN » Thu May 28, 2009 10:00 pm

Image
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#280 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu May 28, 2009 10:02 pm

Nothing anywhere near the storm. I wonder if it was a TS around 2100-0000Z but since weakened?
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