EAST COAST : Tropical Depression ONE

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 14977
Age: 56
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: East Coast : INVEST 91L

#81 Postby tolakram » Wed May 27, 2009 9:31 am

Jeff Masters:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1230

An area of disturbed weather, dubbed "91L" by the National Hurricane Center, is centered 120 miles south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. While the storm does not have much in the way of heavy thunderstorm activity, it does have a well-developed circulation, and the spin of the system is readily apparent on long range radar animations out of Morehead City, North Carolina. The disturbance is over waters of 25 - 26°C and has wind shear of 10 - 15 knots over it, and these conditions are marginally favorable for some slow development to occur until Thursday afternoon, when the system will begin moving over waters too cold to support tropical cyclone development. The disturbance will track north or north-northeastward at 10 - 15 mph towards North Carolina's Outer Banks today, then get swept northeastwards out to sea on Thursday. It is unlikely that the disturbance has enough time to develop into a tropical depression, but an Air Force hurricane hunter flight is on call to investigate the system this afternoon, if necessary. If the system does develop, the current location of the heaviest thunderstorm activity in a band well removed from the center suggests that 91L would be classified as a subtropical depression. The Outer Banks of North Carolina can expect 20 - 25 mph winds and heavy rain from this system tonight and Thursday morning. In a Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued at 8am EDT this morning, NHC gave 91L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression.

-snip-
0 likes   

Frank2
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3960
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2005 12:47 pm
Location: Florida

#82 Postby Frank2 » Wed May 27, 2009 9:34 am

It's bad English, but - there ain't nothin' there!

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh.html

perhaps a weak surface low, at best, but per the late Director of the HRD, if he looked at this photo, he'd tell me:

"Go home, Frank!"

P.S. My first denial of the 2009 season (LOL)...
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 32
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

Re: East Coast : INVEST 91L

#83 Postby HURAKAN » Wed May 27, 2009 9:45 am

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Thunder44
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5922
Age: 38
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 7:53 pm
Location: New York City

Re: East Coast : INVEST 91L

#84 Postby Thunder44 » Wed May 27, 2009 9:54 am

Well, I was wrong :wink:

00
NOUS42 KNHC 271500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT WED 27 MAY 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 28/1100Z TO 29/1100Z MAY 2009
WSPOD NUMBER.....09-003

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. NOTE: THE MISSION SCHEDULED FOR 27/2100Z OFF NORTH
CAROLINA WILL FLY TODAY, BUT THE SECOND AT 28/06Z
WAS CANX.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 117490
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Recon : INVEST 91L

#85 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 27, 2009 9:55 am

Plane will fly this afternoon

000
NOUS42 KNHC 271500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT WED 27 MAY 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 28/1100Z TO 29/1100Z MAY 2009
WSPOD NUMBER.....09-003

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. [b]NOTE: THE MISSION SCHEDULED FOR 27/2100Z OFF NORTH
CAROLINA WILL FLY TODAY
, BUT THE SECOND AT 28/06Z
WAS CANX.
[/b]
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml?
0 likes   

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 14977
Age: 56
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: Recon : INVEST 91L

#86 Postby tolakram » Wed May 27, 2009 9:57 am

Wow,

First recon of the season.
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 19085
Age: 62
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: East Coast : INVEST 91L

#87 Postby wxman57 » Wed May 27, 2009 10:13 am

Definitely a closed LLC today, but winds around the center are only in the 10-15 kt range and convection is minimal. It's moving over cooler and cooler water now, and wind shear is a bit of a factor as well. Slim chance of development.
0 likes   

Ed Mahmoud

Re: Recon : INVEST 91L

#88 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Wed May 27, 2009 10:14 am

If this is a 1983 or 1997 type season, as the oncoming El Neenyo suggests, they won't get too many opportunities to practice flying through real, well, sort of real, disturbances.



But think of all the jet fuel they'll save.


I hope the research people don't have any grand Project Vortex like experiments planned this summer. The Spring tour is probably the most air time the Orions will see this year.
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 32
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#89 Postby HURAKAN » Wed May 27, 2009 10:18 am

Image
0 likes   

Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10024
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

Re: East Coast : INVEST 91L

#90 Postby Sanibel » Wed May 27, 2009 10:38 am

Makes me wonder if their numbers prediction is low for this year?
0 likes   

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 14977
Age: 56
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: East Coast : INVEST 91L

#91 Postby tolakram » Wed May 27, 2009 11:02 am

Not sure what to make of this. The center may be very close or crossing this buoy.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41025
Image
Image
0 likes   

User avatar
hurricanefloyd5
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1659
Age: 39
Joined: Sun May 02, 2004 10:53 am
Location: Spartanburg
Contact:

Re: Model Guidance : INVEST 91L

#92 Postby hurricanefloyd5 » Wed May 27, 2009 11:21 am

are all or most of the models showing at lease ANA of 35kts or is this just a few models???
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 117490
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: East Coast : INVEST 91L

#93 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 27, 2009 11:25 am

Probabilities are up a tad.

Image
0 likes   

capepoint
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 409
Joined: Sat Jul 19, 2008 7:13 pm
Location: Beaufort, NC

#94 Postby capepoint » Wed May 27, 2009 11:25 am

should be very near 41036 right now.
0 likes   

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 14977
Age: 56
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: East Coast : INVEST 91L

#95 Postby tolakram » Wed May 27, 2009 11:29 am

Convection near center is firing over the gulf stream.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Tampa Bay Hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5567
Age: 31
Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:54 pm
Location: St. Petersburg, FL

Re: East Coast : INVEST 91L

#96 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Wed May 27, 2009 11:37 am

OpieStorm wrote:In my 15+ years of tracking tropical cyclones I never knew that 2 areas of thunderstomrs in May meant we were on pace to a hyperactive season.Interesting.


The two areas were close to being named...well defined Low Level Centers...so we were close to 2 systems...
hyperactive for May.
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 28044
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#97 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed May 27, 2009 11:39 am

This doesn't look nearly as good as the Gulf storm this past weekend though.
0 likes   

User avatar
Tommedic
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 180
Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2002 10:57 pm
Location: Cape Fear NC
Contact:

#98 Postby Tommedic » Wed May 27, 2009 11:50 am

If nothing else, the rise of 2 storms in May can be useful. So many in the Carolina's have gotten very relaxed and almost ignorant to the possibilities of a strike. We can use these to remind people that we need to be ready at all times. Just a thought. :flag:
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 32
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#99 Postby HURAKAN » Wed May 27, 2009 11:50 am

Image
0 likes   

Derek Ortt

#100 Postby Derek Ortt » Wed May 27, 2009 12:31 pm

this isnt close to a TC... its a low cloud swirl
0 likes   


Return to “2009”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests