EPAC : INVEST 90E

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 32
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#21 Postby HURAKAN » Sun May 31, 2009 9:46 am

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 32
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#22 Postby HURAKAN » Sun May 31, 2009 6:40 pm

490
ABPZ20 KNHC 312338
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN MAY 31 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO
MEXICO REMAINS POORLY-ORGANIZED. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF
ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 5 TO
10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE... LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 32
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#23 Postby HURAKAN » Sun May 31, 2009 6:42 pm

857
WHXX01 KMIA 311834
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1834 UTC SUN MAY 31 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP902009) 20090531 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090531 1800 090601 0600 090601 1800 090602 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.5N 98.3W 9.9N 100.4W 10.5N 102.7W 11.0N 104.9W
BAMD 9.5N 98.3W 9.8N 99.5W 10.0N 100.7W 10.0N 102.0W
BAMM 9.5N 98.3W 9.8N 99.9W 10.0N 101.6W 10.2N 103.3W
LBAR 9.5N 98.3W 10.1N 99.5W 11.0N 101.3W 12.4N 103.5W
SHIP 25KTS 23KTS 22KTS 21KTS
DSHP 25KTS 23KTS 22KTS 21KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090602 1800 090603 1800 090604 1800 090605 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.4N 106.9W 11.9N 111.1W 12.8N 114.7W 13.8N 118.4W
BAMD 9.9N 103.5W 10.2N 107.2W 11.2N 111.1W 13.3N 115.4W
BAMM 10.4N 105.2W 10.9N 109.0W 11.8N 112.8W 13.7N 117.0W
LBAR 13.7N 105.7W 17.7N 109.3W 21.9N 110.1W 25.6N 108.2W
SHIP 24KTS 28KTS 32KTS 27KTS
DSHP 24KTS 28KTS 32KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.5N LONCUR = 98.3W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 9.2N LONM12 = 97.4W DIRM12 = 286DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 9.0N LONM24 = 96.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 32
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#24 Postby HURAKAN » Sun May 31, 2009 6:43 pm

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 32
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#25 Postby HURAKAN » Sun May 31, 2009 8:38 pm

EP, 90, 2009060100, , BEST, 0, 96N, 988W, 20, 1008, DB

Winds decreased from 25 to 20 knots.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 116679
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC : INVEST 90E

#26 Postby cycloneye » Sun May 31, 2009 8:47 pm

This thing is dead.I think is a teaser for stronger systems later on.
0 likes   

Cyclone1
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2740
Age: 27
Joined: Tue Jun 12, 2007 12:03 pm
Location: Florida

#27 Postby Cyclone1 » Sun May 31, 2009 8:48 pm

Wow, it almost had me convinced
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 32
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#28 Postby HURAKAN » Sun May 31, 2009 8:56 pm

The 00z model runs are late, which makes me wonder if they are thinking on pulling the plug.
0 likes   

RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16099
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

#29 Postby RL3AO » Sun May 31, 2009 9:00 pm

It has some sort of surface low and is in very low shear. I wouldn't call it dead yet.
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 32
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

Re:

#30 Postby HURAKAN » Sun May 31, 2009 9:09 pm

RL3AO wrote:It has some sort of surface low and is in very low shear. I wouldn't call it dead yet.


I agree. Conditions appear favorable and it has a nice circulation. We already saw this year that in the tropics, never say never, especially this time of the year in the EPAC.
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 32
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

Re: EPAC : INVEST 90E

#31 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Jun 01, 2009 4:43 am

524
ABPZ20 KNHC 010539
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SUN MAY 31 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAVE
DIMINISHED THIS EVENING. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/COHEN

0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 32
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#32 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Jun 01, 2009 6:17 am

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 116679
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC : INVEST 90E

#33 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 01, 2009 6:45 am

193
ABPZ20 KNHC 011134
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON JUN 1 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BLAKE


RIP!
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 32
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#34 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Jun 01, 2009 9:15 am

Image

Looks like they are about to pull the plug.
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 32
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#35 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Jun 01, 2009 11:51 am

626
ABPZ30 KNHC 011631
TWSEP
MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM PDT MON JUN 01 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES WERE OBSERVED DURING MAY IN THE EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC. ON AVERAGE A TROPICAL STORM FORMS ONCE EVERY OTHER
MAY. HOWEVER...THIS IS THE FIRST TIME SINCE 1999 THAT NO TROPICAL
CYCLONES WERE OBSERVED DURING THE MONTH.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 116679
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC : INVEST 90E

#36 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 01, 2009 1:48 pm

Adios!

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_ep902009.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200906011811
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
0 likes   

Cyclone1
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2740
Age: 27
Joined: Tue Jun 12, 2007 12:03 pm
Location: Florida

#37 Postby Cyclone1 » Mon Jun 01, 2009 2:30 pm

Next!

Wow, no May storm. It's been a while since that happened.
0 likes   


Return to “2009”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests