NE of Azores Islands : INVEST 92L

[cycloneye]

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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 92, 2009, DB, O, 2009060200, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL922009
AL, 92, 2009060100, , BEST, 0, 384N, 280W, 30, 1004, EX, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2009060106, , BEST, 0, 387N, 263W, 30, 1003, EX, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2009060112, , BEST, 0, 392N, 255W, 30, 1001, EX, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2009060118, , BEST, 0, 401N, 247W, 35, 1001, EX, 34, NEQ, 50, 50, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2009060200, , BEST, 0, 408N, 242W, 35, 1001, EX, 34, NEQ, 50, 50, 0, 0,

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

[Category 5]

This should've been tagged this afternoon at least.

[HURAKAN]

I'm impressed with this system since it's so early in the season.

[cycloneye]

This should've been tagged this afternoon at least.

If you notice,they haved been tracking this since last night at 00 UTC.Agree on invest earlier in the day.

[HURAKAN]

[Category 5]

This should've been tagged this afternoon at least.

If you notice,they haved been tracking this since last night at 00 UTC.Agree on invest earlier in the day.

I know, but its obvious this has past its peak now.

[Derek Ortt]

have to be honest, this looks like a TS. not at all usual for this time of year. This is more of a Late september through end of December kind of thing

[cycloneye]

Its obvious that the Navy site is having problems because 90E and 93W have been deactivated but still appear there and 92L still doesnt appear.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html

[HURAKAN]

Convection trying to pop near the center.

[HURAKAN]

We need to save this for posterity!

[Category 5]

I dont see this becoming anything now. I do think though that this could very well be a post season designation though.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Over sub 20ºC ocean waters. And, as noted on the pre-invest thread, GFS takes what is now an impressive low and slowly fills it in over the next 3 days.




It does 'look' sort of tropical, except for the meager deep convection. Mostly -20 to -30ºC cloud tops. A couple of -40ish blobs. If it pops something up high enough to reach -60ºC, as a casual and amateur observer, I'd be more impressed.



That said, I think it may have been Hurricane Kyle of some years back, had a well developed eye at some point during its long travels, but was completely lacking in the colder cloud tops that produce the impressive colors on IR satellite loops.

[DanieleItalyRm]

Tempesta con caratteristiche tropicali poco a nord delle Isole Azzorre, con evidente warm core a 850 hpa.
Con venti fino a 40 nodi ha un intensita' stimabile come tempesta tropicale (sebbene il Quickscat mostra i venti alle 13, dunque qualche ora prima la formazone dell'occhio della tempesta);
Molte le similitudini di formazione con l'Uragano Vince (2005) ma in questo periodo la superficie marina è ancor piu' fredda.
La formazione dell'occhio è stata comunque molto interessante, pari a TLC e cicloni tropicali. La pressione segnata da gfs è di 1005 hpa. In realta', come spesso capita,il ciclone è molto piccolo per essere identificato bene dal modello europeo. L'isola di Graciosa, ad esempio, ha segnato una pressione di 1000 hpa, stimo dunque una pressione reale di circa 996-998 Hpa nel centro.















Loop:
http://wind.met.fu-berlin.de/cgi-bin/meteosat.cgi?speed

http://www.sat24.com/Region.aspx?countr ... &type=loop

[littlevince]

con evidente warm core a 850 hpa

I also noticed that GFS always showed a "warm spot" in the center at 850hPa despite the relative low resolution of a global model (0.5º in this map)

GFS 850hPa Temperature



And last week I found the windfield in GFS runs some kind of interesting and a bit different than usual.

GFS Wind (based on an older run - Thursday 18z)




Not too much, but still has a small thunderstorm near the center

[Cookie]

is this an invest as some sites I use don't seem to have picked it up as one.

[DanieleItalyRm]

Look the image 9:00 utc
For me this is a tropical storm, no subtropical, no Invest..
Fosse stato nel settore owest dell'Atlantico (USA) la tempesta sarebbe stata gia' classificata come Tropical Storm..



ps: littlevince please, have link of your maps gfs 850 hpa and wind?
Many Thanks

[senorpepr]

I'm not confident at all that this will become anything. However, the other day when we were forecasting for the Azores, watching this low did throw the word subtropical in my head.

Regardless, at that time, gusts associated with this system we hardly in the 20s. It'll be interesting to watch.

[senorpepr]

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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 92, 2009, DB, O, 2009060200, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL922009
AL, 92, 2009060100, , BEST, 0, 384N, 280W, 30, 1004, EX, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2009060106, , BEST, 0, 387N, 263W, 30, 1003, EX, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2009060112, , BEST, 0, 392N, 255W, 30, 1001, EX, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2009060118, , BEST, 0, 401N, 247W, 35, 1001, EX, 34, NEQ, 50, 50, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2009060200, , BEST, 0, 408N, 242W, 35, 1001, EX, 34, NEQ, 50, 50, 0, 0,

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

Luis,

I see since you've posted this, NHC changed the status at 02/00Z from extratropical to low.

AL, 92, 2009060200, , BEST, 0, 408N, 242W, 35, 1001, LO, 34, NEQ, 50, 50, 0, 0, 1010, 240, 35, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,

[DanieleItalyRm]

new Quickscat image 50 knots wind:

[HURAKAN]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 020615.GIF