EPAC : Invest 91E

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#21 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Jun 08, 2009 4:27 pm

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Call the fat lady, she may need to get ready if 91E doesn't revive itself back to life!
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#22 Postby KWT » Mon Jun 08, 2009 5:03 pm

Wow 91E has totally gone poof, pretty impressive weakening given what it looked like before.
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Re: EPAC : Invest 91E

#23 Postby Lurker » Mon Jun 08, 2009 5:14 pm

Interesting! If the EPAC starts out slower than normal what implications will this have on the Atlantic (if any)? Any studies done on this?
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Re: EPAC : Invest 91E

#24 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 08, 2009 6:40 pm

I am surprised that they leave it Code Orange.

454
ABPZ20 KNHC 082338
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON JUN 8 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

LIMITED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH
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Re: EPAC : Invest 91E

#25 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 08, 2009 8:42 pm

00 UTC Best track

EP, 91, 2009060900, , BEST, 0, 111N, 1173W, 20, 1008, DB,
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Re: EPAC : Invest 91E

#26 Postby HurricaneRobert » Mon Jun 08, 2009 10:54 pm

Convection is bursting again.
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Re: EPAC : Invest 91E

#27 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Jun 08, 2009 11:19 pm

HurricaneRobert wrote:Convection is bursting again.


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#28 Postby KWT » Tue Jun 09, 2009 5:38 am

Convection still looks ragged, though it is in better shape then it was in 12hrs ago it has to be said.
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#29 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Jun 09, 2009 6:20 am

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#30 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Jun 09, 2009 6:44 am

735
ABPZ20 KNHC 091137
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE JUN 9 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAVE BECOME LESS ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY.
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA
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#31 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Jun 09, 2009 11:31 am

Years with no storms between May 15 - June 9 during the period between 1970 - 2008.

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Re: EPAC : Invest 91E

#32 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 09, 2009 11:37 am

Good graphic Sandy.That shows it doesnt matter if things are slow now,it matters later.

I have a question about when was the latest date the first named storm in the EPAC formed?
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Re: EPAC : Invest 91E

#33 Postby RL3AO » Tue Jun 09, 2009 11:44 am

cycloneye wrote:Good graphic Sandy.That shows it doesnt matter if things are slow now,it matters later.

I have a question about when was the latest date the first named storm in the EPAC formed?


June 19, 1994
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#34 Postby KWT » Tue Jun 09, 2009 11:53 am

Several of those years also saw systems developing between the 9th and 11th of June and so if 91E doesn't do anything it seems highly possible this will be in the top 5 slowest starts since 1966.
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Re: EPAC : Invest 91E

#35 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 09, 2009 12:23 pm

RL3AO,I found a much later date of the first named storm that formed.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/e_p ... index.html
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Re: EPAC : Invest 91E

#36 Postby RL3AO » Tue Jun 09, 2009 12:26 pm

cycloneye wrote:RL3AO,I found a much later date of the first named storm that formed.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/e_p ... index.html


The EPac only has reliable stats going back to 1970, so thats where I started.
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Re: EPAC : Invest 91E

#37 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 09, 2009 12:29 pm

RL3AO wrote:
cycloneye wrote:RL3AO,I found a much later date of the first named storm that formed.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/e_p ... index.html


The EPac only has reliable stats going back to 1970, so thats where I started.


Oh ok thats true. :)
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Re: EPAC : Invest 91E

#38 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Tue Jun 09, 2009 12:34 pm

It should pick up nicely once El Niño kicks in for real.


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Re: EPAC : Invest 91E

#39 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 09, 2009 12:42 pm

085
ABPZ20 KNHC 091733
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE JUN 9 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA REMAIN POORLY-ORGANIZED. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN
30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA
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Re: EPAC : Invest 91E

#40 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Jun 09, 2009 12:46 pm

cycloneye wrote:
RL3AO wrote:
cycloneye wrote:RL3AO,I found a much later date of the first named storm that formed.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/e_p ... index.html


The EPac only has reliable stats going back to 1970, so thats where I started.


Oh ok thats true. :)


That's also why my graphic is between '70-'08.
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