EPAC : Invest 91E

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HURAKAN
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#61 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Jun 10, 2009 4:40 pm

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#62 Postby KWT » Wed Jun 10, 2009 4:42 pm

Still needs some deeper convection around that circulation, the main deeper stuff is to the south of the circulation probably in the ITCZ. Still it does look way better then it did 24hrs ago.
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Re: EPAC : Invest 91E

#63 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 10, 2009 4:50 pm

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 102148
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED JUN 10 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR 11N117W HAS BECOME A LITTLE
BETTER ORGANIZED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW
IMPROVED CURVED BANDING TO THE N AND W OF THE ESTIMATED
LOW-LEVEL CENTER AND CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED AND IS MORE
CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER...WITHIN 210 NM N AND 45 NM S
SEMICIRCLES. THE SYSTEM IS ALSO MORE DETACHED FROM THE ITCZ
BASED ON ITS OVERALL CLOUD STRUCTURE. RECENT SCATTEROMETER
PASSES REVEAL SW 20 KT WINDS OR SO OVER THE SE QUADRANT AND
ENHANCED NE TRADES OVER THE N SEMICIRCLE. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2148.shtml?
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Re: EPAC : Invest 91E

#64 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 10, 2009 5:56 pm

Will NHC upgrade to code red in the next TWO?

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Re: EPAC : Invest 91E

#65 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 10, 2009 6:36 pm

No upgrade to code red.

734
ABPZ20 KNHC 102333
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED JUN 10 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 950 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. THIS SYSTEM HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2333.shtml
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#66 Postby KWT » Wed Jun 10, 2009 6:45 pm

Code red can't be far away as it looks like 91E is finally getting its act on again looking at that image cycloneye, actually looks like a developing tropical depression to me, wouldn't be surprised to see the first TD tomorrow of the EPAC season.
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#67 Postby WmE » Wed Jun 10, 2009 6:54 pm

Yeah it looks definitly better. It could be the first player in the EPAC this year. Still the outflow on the eastern side needs to get better IMHO.
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#68 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Jun 10, 2009 7:16 pm

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As the Sun goes down, upgrade will likely be postponed until tomorrow to wait for visible.
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#69 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Jun 10, 2009 7:22 pm

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To tell the truth, it looks already like a tropical depression or weak tropical storm.
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Re: EPAC : Invest 91E

#70 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 10, 2009 7:48 pm

00 UTC Best Track

EP, 91, 2009061100, , BEST, 0, 115N, 1177W, 25, 1008, LO
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#71 Postby Derek Ortt » Wed Jun 10, 2009 7:51 pm

the center was south of the convection earlier today on GARP visible imagery
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#72 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Jun 10, 2009 8:26 pm

264
WHXX01 KMIA 110047
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0047 UTC THU JUN 11 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP912009) 20090611 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090611 0000 090611 1200 090612 0000 090612 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.5N 117.7W 12.7N 119.2W 14.0N 120.4W 15.2N 121.2W
BAMD 11.5N 117.7W 12.3N 119.3W 13.4N 120.7W 14.7N 121.6W
BAMM 11.5N 117.7W 12.4N 119.2W 13.5N 120.5W 14.6N 121.4W
LBAR 11.5N 117.7W 12.4N 118.9W 14.1N 120.3W 15.9N 121.4W
SHIP 25KTS 34KTS 42KTS 46KTS
DSHP 25KTS 34KTS 42KTS 46KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090613 0000 090614 0000 090615 0000 090616 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.5N 121.8W 19.4N 121.2W 21.4N 121.0W 23.0N 118.8W
BAMD 16.2N 121.9W 20.0N 121.6W 23.8N 119.6W 28.7N 112.3W
BAMM 15.9N 122.0W 18.9N 122.5W 21.4N 122.9W 24.0N 121.4W
LBAR 18.3N 122.1W 25.0N 119.8W 34.4N 106.8W 38.9N 88.8W
SHIP 47KTS 38KTS 21KTS 0KTS
DSHP 47KTS 38KTS 21KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.5N LONCUR = 117.7W DIRCUR = 320DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 10.5N LONM12 = 117.0W DIRM12 = 330DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 10.5N LONM24 = 117.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


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#73 Postby RL3AO » Wed Jun 10, 2009 9:00 pm

TCFA

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Re: EPAC : Invest 91E

#74 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 10, 2009 9:08 pm

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTPN 21 PHNC 110200
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.4N 117.0W TO 13.8N 120.3W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 110000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.5N 117.7W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS. THE NEXT SATELLITE INVESTIGATION IS SCHEDULED FOR
120000Z.
2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 120200Z.
//

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Re: EPAC : Invest 91E

#75 Postby I-wall » Wed Jun 10, 2009 10:22 pm

This thing looks pretty healthy to me. Is it safe to say we have our first TD (or TS) for the EastPac season?
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#76 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Jun 10, 2009 10:25 pm

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11/0000 UTC 11.4N 118.2W T1.5/1.5 91E -- East Pacific
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Re: EPAC : Invest 91E

#77 Postby I-wall » Wed Jun 10, 2009 10:28 pm

Looks like it has pretty good outflow especially in the northern half. I'm an amateur, but i'd say it's tropical storm.

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Re: EPAC : Invest 91E

#78 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 10, 2009 10:34 pm

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Re: EPAC : Invest 91E

#79 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 10, 2009 10:42 pm

Below are the remarks of the Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert.

. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 11.5N 117.7W, APPROXIMATELY
580 NM SOUTHWEST OF SOCORRO ISLAND, HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP, CENTRAL
CONVECTION WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM (GREATER THAN 30 CELSIUS)
AND THE REGION IS VERY MOIST THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN A FAVORABLE AREA OF MINIMAL VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. BROAD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS ALSO EVIDENT IN
THE ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY. FINALLY, A 102100Z AMSU VERTICAL
CROSS SECTION DEPICTS IMPROVING WARM ANOMALY ALOFT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. BASED ON THE
IMPROVING CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE AND INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 120200Z.//
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Re: EPAC : Invest 91E

#80 Postby Macrocane » Wed Jun 10, 2009 11:09 pm

It looks very well organized, the convection has persisted, although the outflow seems to be restricted in some quadrants, but it looks promising. I'm sure that if it was on the Atlantic it would have already been named or at least upgraded to TD.
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