EPAC : Invest 91E

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HURAKAN
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#81 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jun 11, 2009 2:13 am

11/0600 UTC 11.6N 118.7W T2.0/2.0 91E -- East Pacific
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#82 Postby KWT » Thu Jun 11, 2009 6:08 am

Looks pretty decent at the moment, I agree with the idea that if this was in the gulf for example this would already be a tropical depression.
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Re: EPAC : Invest 91E

#83 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 11, 2009 6:53 am

Code Red

165
ABPZ20 KNHC 111152
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU JUN 11 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE
FORMING ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. IF THIS DEVELOPMENT TREND IS CONFIRMED BY VISIBLE IMAGES
OR ADDITIONAL MICROWAVE DATA...ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER
TODAY. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

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Re: EPAC : Invest 91E

#84 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 11, 2009 7:36 am

12 UTC Best Track

EP, 91, 2009061112, , BEST, 0, 120N, 1182W, 25, 1007, LO
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#85 Postby KWT » Thu Jun 11, 2009 8:08 am

Not all that surprising, this is looking a lot like a tropical depression as of the moment, but will it become the first tropical storm of the season?
I strongly suspect it will do so and the SHIPS guidence is a little under what will happen. Still we shall see.
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#86 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jun 11, 2009 8:17 am

11/1200 UTC 11.8N 118.8W T2.0/2.0 91E -- East Pacific
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#87 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jun 11, 2009 8:22 am

801
WHXX01 KMIA 111235
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1235 UTC THU JUN 11 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP912009) 20090611 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090611 1200 090612 0000 090612 1200 090613 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.0N 118.2W 13.3N 119.5W 14.7N 120.1W 15.8N 120.1W
BAMD 12.0N 118.2W 13.1N 119.6W 14.3N 120.5W 15.8N 120.7W
BAMM 12.0N 118.2W 13.2N 119.6W 14.5N 120.3W 15.9N 120.6W
LBAR 12.0N 118.2W 13.1N 119.2W 14.8N 120.1W 16.9N 120.9W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 31KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 31KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090613 1200 090614 1200 090615 1200 090616 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.7N 119.7W 17.8N 119.9W 19.1N 121.1W 19.4N 122.4W
BAMD 17.7N 120.5W 22.0N 119.6W 26.4N 115.8W 31.8N 106.5W
BAMM 17.4N 120.4W 20.5N 120.0W 23.5N 118.8W 26.7N 113.0W
LBAR 19.4N 121.0W 26.3N 118.6W 33.9N 107.2W 36.0N 92.7W
SHIP 30KTS 16KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 30KTS 16KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.0N LONCUR = 118.2W DIRCUR = 320DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 11.5N LONM12 = 117.7W DIRM12 = 320DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 10.5N LONM24 = 117.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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#88 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jun 11, 2009 8:44 am

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#89 Postby KWT » Thu Jun 11, 2009 8:47 am

Hmmm seems like convection is on something of a downward trend again from the looks of things Hurakan, still I suspect the NHC will upgrade it, but if it can't pull itself together better then that then the first storm will still be out of reach.

Still plenty of time for 91E to really get going.
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Re:

#90 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jun 11, 2009 8:53 am

KWT wrote:Still plenty of time for 91E to really get going.


Not really, as the storm shifts northward, like the models are saying, look at the shear.

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#91 Postby KWT » Thu Jun 11, 2009 8:57 am

24-36hrs still is enough time for it to get going into at least a low end TS, but it is true to its north the shear does really increase.
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#92 Postby Cyclone1 » Thu Jun 11, 2009 9:23 am

Man, EPAC can't catch a break. What's the record for the latest first storm? I seem to recall it's in July.
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#93 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jun 11, 2009 9:25 am

Cyclone1 wrote:Man, EPAC can't catch a break. What's the record for the latest first storm? I seem to recall it's in July.


June 19, 1994
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#94 Postby KWT » Thu Jun 11, 2009 9:33 am

Yep cycloneye1 the EPAC is struggling to really get going so far though its still early days, 1994 is the perfect example of that.

Anyway as Hurakan has shown there is shear to the north of this system and so 91E has probably between 24-36hrs to become the seasons first system, which I think it will given the sounds coming from the NHC, but will it become the first TS of the season in the EPAC, thats a bigger uncertainty!
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#95 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jun 11, 2009 9:52 am

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#96 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jun 11, 2009 10:36 am

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#97 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jun 11, 2009 11:35 am

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Convection remains weak.
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Re: EPAC : Invest 91E

#98 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 11, 2009 12:40 pm

Less organized but still at code red.

354
ABPZ20 KNHC 111732
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU JUN 11 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES REVEALED THAT THE DISTURBANCE CENTERED
ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
IS LESS ORGANIZED THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS NOT IMMINENT. HOWEVER...THERE STILL
IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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Re: EPAC : Invest 91E

#99 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jun 11, 2009 12:51 pm

Yesterday:

Image


Now:
Image
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Re: EPAC : Invest 91E

#100 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 11, 2009 1:41 pm

18 UTC Best Track

EP, 91, 2009061118, , BEST, 0, 132N, 1185W, 20, 1007, LO

It looks like its almost over for 91E to become a TC.Its moving almost due northward into the strong shear.That June 19th date looms large now and the record is in jeapardy.
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