WPAC: Tropical Depression LINFA (03W)

[theavocado]

Quikscat shows an elongated circulation on the surface, and convection (and coriolis) is weak, but for some reason there is a lot of model development for this invest starting with the 96 hour mark (180 shown).

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.0N 132.0E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.0N 128.6E, APPROXIMATELY 170 NM EAST OF DAVAO,
PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD
AREA OF POORLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO PIN-
POINT AND MOST OF THE CIRCULATION IS OCCURRING AT MID-LEVEL. RECENT
SURFACE OBSERVATION FROM DAVAO INDICATES WINDS FROM THE EAST AT 06
KNOTS AND A SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 1009 MB, A DROP OF 2 MB IN THE PAST
24 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LIGHT TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AT 1008 MB. DESPITE THE SLIGHTLY FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR DUE TO THE
ABSENCE OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.

[Ed Mahmoud]

98W develops and is a near miss for Japan. Per the Euro, anyway.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.0N
128.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 130.6E, APPROXIMATELY 280 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER A BROAD AREA OF MID-LEVEL
TURNING. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS SOUTH OF
A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH WHICH IS STARTING TO PROVIDE
POLEWARD EXHAUST. AT THE SURFACE, A 122121Z QUIKSCAT PASS REVEALED
AN ELONGATED, NORTHWEST ORIENTED, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH 15 TO 20-KNOT WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. AT
130000Z TWO SHIPS ALSO OBSERVED WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 17 TO 20
KNOTS WITH SEA LEVEL PRESSURES RANGING FROM 1008 TO 1009 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
BECAUSE OF THE INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND LACK
OF A TRULY WELL-DEFINED LLCC DESPITE THE STRENGTH OF OBSERVED
SURFACE WINDS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

[Ed Mahmoud]

Becoming extra-tropical as it hits/near misses Japan in a week, per Euro

[P.K.]

WWJP25 RJTD 140600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 140600.
WARNING VALID 150600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 992 HPA
AT 42N 177W SEA SOUTH OF ALEUTIANS MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 25 KNOTS.
WARM FRONT FROM 42N 177W TO 40N 175W 38N 173W.
COLD FRONT FROM 42N 177W TO 39N 180E 37N 175E 36N 170E.
WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 1000 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE.
ANOTHER LOW 1000 HPA AT 35N 180W
MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 15 KNOTS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN YELLOW
SEA EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 34N 139E 41N 142E
47N 152E 55N 162E 60N 163E 60N 180E 26N 180E 26N 166E 26N 150E 26N
136E 34N 139E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1006 HPA AT 33N 147E ENE 30 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 12N 128E NW SLOWLY.
HIGH 1010 HPA AT 32N 125E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1020 HPA AT 52N 147E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 23N 153E ALMOST STATIONARY.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 24N 114E TO 25N 117E 24N 122E 25N 127E 27N 131E
29N 140E 33N 147E 32N 156E.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[Typhoon Hunter]

TCFA now issued by JTWC. Interesting forecasts from ECMWF, I will happen to be in Tokyo next week. Reminds me of last year being followed around by multiple TCs. Hopefully this won't cause damage in the Philippines due to flooding / enhanced SW monsoon.

Here's JTWC text:

WTPN21 PGTW 140700
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.6N 127.6E TO 17.6N 125.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 140530Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.0N 127.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
14 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.8N
128.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 127.3E, APPROXIMATELY 380 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW IN THE UPPER LEVEL WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE LLCC, BASED ON A
132106Z QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES WINDS REMAIN BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS
NEAR THE CENTER, WITH STRONGER WINDS, ASSOCIATED WITH REGIONS OF
CONVERGENCE, LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE LLCC. AN 140507Z
AMSU-B IMAGE REVEALS THAT BANDING IS DEVELOPING TOWARD THE LLCC
INDICATING INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. SHIP
OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE CENTER INDICATE WINDS ARE NEAR 15 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH SURFACE PRESSURES NEAR 1006 MB. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS
FAVORABLE WITH GOOD OUTFLOW AS AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS
ENHANCING THE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH REMAINS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC HELPING EASTWARD
OUTFLOW. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE LLCC IS LOW TO MODERATE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
150700Z.//

[KWT]

Does look like its getting increasingly well organised, we may well see a tropical system out of this one, after a sluggish start from the season out there. We shall see but odds are quite good I'd imagine.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

[theavocado]

Talk about a tease. 98w flared pretty hard around diurnal max (max cooling before sunrise) and it held there long enough to appear like development. But it seems that the match flared and now it's a weak mid level circulation. Quikscat shows elongated troughing in the area with 98W on the northwest end and 99W on the southeast end. Now it's getting hard to tell which energy source the models are developing.

[HURAKAN]

[theavocado]

This thing totally collapsed and rocketed off to the west. I wonder if all the energy moved down the trough to 99W.

WTPN21 PGTW 142200
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION//
REF/A/RMG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/140651Z JUN 09//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 140700)//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A. THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 13.0N, 127.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 123.9E,
APPROXIMATELY 177 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN CONVECTION NEAR
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 140927Z QUIKSCAT PASS
INDICATES THE LLCC IS ELONGATED AND EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH
WITH WINDS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS NEAR THE CENTER. A 141745Z AMSU-B
IMAGE REVEALS A WELL DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION SIGNATURE WITH
MINIMAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLCC. UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS
FROM RPMT AND RPLI SHOW SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF DRY AIR BETWEEN 800
MB AND 500 MB IN THE REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
FAVORABLE WITH LOW AMOUNTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, HOWEVER THE
SYSTEM HAS MOVED TO THE WEST OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND HAS
LOST OUTFLOW TO A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSHERIC TROUGH TO THE EAST.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 17 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. DUE TO
LACK OF CONVECTION, DRY AIR INTRUSION AND A WEAKENING LLCC, THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

[brunota2003]

Wow...what happened? It, it was there, and and we, we just lost it! "It's back building!" sorry, but yeah...it looked so close and promising, and then just poof

[Cookie]

Wow...what happened? It, it was there, and and we, we just lost it! "It's back building!" sorry, but yeah...it looked so close and promising, and then just poof

thats happened with a few of them lately if you look back at the most recent invests.

they look close and promising and then poof gone.