WPAC: Tropical Depression LINFA (03W)

[senorpepr]

WWJP25 RJTD 150000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 150000.
WARNING VALID 160000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 980 HPA
AT 48N 178W SEA AROUND ALEUTIANS MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 400 MILES OF LOW.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN YELLOW
SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 33N 135E 35N 142E
42N 143E 52N 159E 53N 166E 60N 166E 60N 180E 40N 180E 40N 170E 30N
160E 30N 135E 33N 135E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1010 HPA AT 38N 147E EAST 15 KT.
LOW 1010 HPA AT 33N 154E EAST 15 KT.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 14N 127E ALMOST STATIONARY.HIGH 1020 HPA AT 51N 147E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1018 HPA AT 25N 155E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1018 HPA AT 43N 159E ALMOST STATIONARY.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 22N 113E TO 24N 119E 26N 128E 29N 134E 31N 146E
33N 154E 31N 161E.
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[HURAKAN]

What is left of 98W is now over Luzon.

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

ABPW10 PGTW 162200
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/162200Z-170600ZJUN2009//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.4N
121.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 117.7E, APPROXIMATELY 350 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KAOHSIUNG, TAIWAN. A 161836Z 89GHZ AMSU-B MICROWAVE
SATELLITE PASS SHOWS BANDING FROM THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SYSTEM WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
ANOTHER BAND TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC HAS INCREASED CONVECTION OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS, POSSIBLY DUE TO DIURNAL EFFECTS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS UNDER INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR JUST SOUTH OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE LUZON STRAIT WHICH IS SUPPRESSING THE NORTHERN FEEDER BAND.
HOWEVER, THE SOUTHERN FEEDER BAND IS ALSO BEING ENHANCED BY GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS AND MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE AT 1003 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVED CONVECTION NEAR THE LLCC
AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
FAIR.

[HURAKAN]

Continues to become better organized.

[wyq614]

TCFA ISSUED

WTPN21 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 160 NM RADIUS OF 18.8N 117.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 162330Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 117.8E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.8N
118.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 117.8E, APPROXIMATELY 325 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KAOHSIUNG, TAIWAN. RECENT ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE JUST WEST OF
LUZON, PHILIPPINES. RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE INDICATING
SURFACE PRESSURE NEAR 1004 MB, AND SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
THE LATEST MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING FROM THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE
SYSTEM HAS AN AREA OF GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW
IS BEGINNING TO EXPAND, ALLOWING THE CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
180300Z.
//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Second attempt to form.

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 170900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 17.4N 116.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4N 116.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 17.7N 116.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 18.0N 116.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 18.3N 116.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 18.6N 116.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 19.1N 117.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 20.0N 119.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 20.8N 121.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 17.5N 116.5E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KAOHSIUNG, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT OBSERVATIONS, SCATTEROMETRY
AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE 25-KNOT WINDS AT THE SYSTEM
CENTER. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA,
AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE NEAR
TERM BEFORE RECURVING TO THE NORTHEAST NEAR TAU 36. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE FOR THIS SYSTEM IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH MOST MODELS
INDICATING RECURVATURE. DUE TO THE RELATIVELY WEAK AND POORLY CON-
SOLIDATED NATURE OF TD 03W, THE SYSTEM IS STEERING ON LOW TO MID LEVEL
RIDGING EXTENDING TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM FROM THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST OF JAPAN. THIS EXTENSION OF THE STR IS
EXPECTED TO REORIENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE
SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN CHINA. THIS REORIENTATION WILL ALSO ALLOW
INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AIDING IN INTENSIFICATION. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 170251Z JUN 09 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 170300). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 6 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z, 172100Z,
180300Z AND 180900Z.//

[Macrocane]

Convection has decreased, if it does not increase later today, than it will not be upgarded to TS.

[cycloneye]

Still TD 03W

WTPN31 PGTW 171500 REL
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING RELOCATED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) WARNING NR 002A RELOCATED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 18.2N 116.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2N 116.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 18.5N 116.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 18.7N 116.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 18.9N 116.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 19.1N 116.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 19.6N 118.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 20.1N 119.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 21.0N 121.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 18.3N 116.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W (THREE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KAOHSIUNG, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. DUE TO NEWLY AVAILABLE MICROWAVE
SATELLITE IMAGERY, THE 17/0600Z POSITION WAS RELOCATED APPROXIMATELY
45 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS WARNING POSITION. THE
RELOCATED CENTER POSITION DOES NOT AFFECT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH TAU 36 BEFORE RECURVING TO THE NORTHEAST.
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE HAMPERING INTENSIFICATION
THROUGHOUT THE FORECASAT PERIOD. FOR MORE IN-DEPTH DISCUSSION OF THE
FORECAST AND FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REFER TO THE ASSOCIATED PROGNOSTIC
REASONING (WDPN31 PGTW 171500). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
171200Z IS 7 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z, 180900Z AND
181500Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA AT 18N 116E NW SLOWLY.

[HURAKAN]

TS 03W.

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 172100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (THREE) WARNING NR 003
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 18.2N 116.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2N 116.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 18.4N 116.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 18.6N 116.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 19.0N 117.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 19.5N 119.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 20.8N 121.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 22.6N 124.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 25.1N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 18.2N 116.3E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (THREE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KAOHSIUNG, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
SUGGEST THE STORM HAS REACHED TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THE CURRENT
SPEED OF 07 KNOTS IS MORE A REFLECTION OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE BEST
TRACK; THE SYSTEM IS IN A REGION OF WEAK STEERING. THE CURRENT
FORECAST REFLECTS AN INCREASE IN TRACK SPEED IN THE EXTENDED TAUS
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AS MORE OBJECTIVE AIDS HAVE BECOME
AVAILABLE, THEY SUGGEST THAT TS 03W WILL ACCELERATE AT IT NEARS
TAIWAN AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST BECOMES THE PRIMARY
STEERING INFLUENCE. THE CURRENT FORECAST ALSO DISCOUNTS THE
CONSENSUS (WHICH IS SKEWED BY A FAULTY UKMI TRACKER) AND FAVORS
GFDN, NOGAPS, AND GFS. ADDING FURTHER UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST,
AN AREA OF CONVECTION AND SURFACE TROUGHING NORTHEAST OF LUZON MAY
DEVELOP INTO A CIRCULATION. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHAT IMPACT A
SECOND CYCLONE WOULD HAVE ON THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT OF TC 03W.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 180300Z, 180900Z, 181500Z AND 182100Z.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 03W (THREE) WARNING NR 004
WTPN31 PGTW 180300
1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (THREE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 18.1N 116.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1N 116.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 18.3N 117.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 18.6N 117.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 19.2N 118.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 19.8N 120.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 21.3N 122.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 24.4N 126.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 27.8N 130.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 18.1N 116.9E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (THREE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 336 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KAOHSIUNG, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEAST-
WARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 11 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z, 181500Z, 182100Z AND 190300Z.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 18 JUN 2009 Time : 023000 UTC
Lat : 18:05:51 N Lon : 116:53:04 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.1 / 989.6mb/ 47.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.1 3.2 3.2

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -74.5C Cloud Region Temp : -68.5C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[wyq614]

CMA decides to upgrade it itself

TS NAMELESS 0903 (09XX) INITIAL TIME 180600 UTC
00HR 18.1N 116.7E 998HPA 18M/S
30KTS 100KM
P12HR NE 5KM/H
P+24HR 18.9N 117.9E 995HPA 20M/S
P+48HR 20.0N 119.8E 990HPA 23M/S
P+72HR 21.1N 121.7E 995HPA 20M/S
P+96HR 23.2N 125.0E 1000HPA 15M/S

and then JMA finally named it, skipping the Gale Warning

NAME TS 0903 LINFA (0903) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180600UTC 17.6N 116.3E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 100NM
FORECAST
24HF 190600UTC 19.0N 118.2E 85NM 70%
MOVE NE 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 200600UTC 20.1N 119.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 210600UTC 20.9N 120.8E 220NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT

[theavocado]

The competing steering environment seems to really be wreaking havoc on finding the position and the analyzed motion. I would argue that a CDO is starting to set up making it much harder to find the center using IR.

WTPN31 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (LINFA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 17.8N 116.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - QUASISTATIONARY
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8N 116.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 17.9N 116.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 18.4N 117.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 19.2N 118.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 20.2N 120.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 22.1N 122.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 24.7N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 27.8N 129.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 17.8N 116.5E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (LINFA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KAOHSIUNG, TAIWAN, HAS REMAINED QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A REGION OF WEAK STEERING AS
EVIDENCED BY THE SLOW TRACK SPEED AND UNCERTAINTY OF TRACK
DIRECTION. THE SYSTEM DID NOT START MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AS
QUICKLY AS BELIEVED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE CURRENT
FORECAST REFLECTS A SIMILAR TRACK AND SPEED BUT WITH A 6 HOUR DELAY
AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS QUASISTATIONARY. OBJECTIVE AIDS HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO TRACK WITH EGRR BEING THE OUTLIER
TO THE NORTH. THE FORECAST IS PLACED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF CONSENSUS
NEAR THE MAIN CLUSTER OF OBJECTIVE AIDS. TRACK SPEED STILL VARIES
AMONG CONSENSUS MEMBERS WITH GFS BEING THE FAST OUTLIER, GFDN AND
NOGAPS FAST BUT CLOSE TO EACH OTHER, AND EGRR AND WBAR BEING SLOW.
CURRENT FORECAST SPEED REMAINS CLOSE TO CONSENSUS AND IN-LINE WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING. AN AREA OF CONVECTION AND SURFACE
TROUGHING NORTHEAST OF LUZON CONTINUES TO ADD UNCERTAINTY TO THE
REGION AS IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHAT IMPACT A SECOND CYCLONE WOULD
HAVE ON THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT OF TC 03W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z, 182100Z,
190300Z AND 190900Z.
//
NNNN

[theavocado]

Looks like it will still run up the boundary that has set up south of Okinawa. Almost is starting to look like another reverse oriented monsoon trough similar to what 02W (Chan Hom) had.