EPAC : Tropical Depression (01E)

[cycloneye]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep922009.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200906161147
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 92, 2009, DB, O, 2009061612, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP922009
EP, 92, 2009061612, , BEST, 0, 144N, 1045W, 25, 0, DB

ABPZ20 KNHC 161137
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE JUN 16 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO IS ACCOMPANIED BY DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN

[HURAKAN]

Looks quite exposed.

[KWT]

Interesting to see they've given this an invest given its not been around for too long..indeed it only really blew up 12hrs ago.

Still it has become convectivly active which is probably the reason they've put an invest on it as it does evidently have a circulation as well.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

302
WHXX01 KMIA 161256
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1256 UTC TUE JUN 16 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP922009) 20090616 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090616 1200 090617 0000 090617 1200 090618 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.4N 104.5W 15.1N 106.2W 15.9N 108.0W 16.8N 109.7W
BAMD 14.4N 104.5W 14.9N 106.2W 15.6N 107.8W 16.5N 109.2W
BAMM 14.4N 104.5W 15.1N 106.4W 15.9N 108.2W 16.9N 109.9W
LBAR 14.4N 104.5W 15.1N 106.3W 16.2N 108.1W 17.5N 109.9W
SHIP 25KTS 26KTS 31KTS 38KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 31KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090618 1200 090619 1200 090620 1200 090621 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.6N 111.2W 19.4N 112.5W 21.5N 112.5W 23.6N 112.3W
BAMD 17.5N 110.2W 20.6N 110.8W 25.3N 110.6W 31.1N 110.2W
BAMM 17.8N 111.2W 20.7N 111.6W 24.6N 110.8W 28.7N 109.8W
LBAR 19.0N 111.1W 22.6N 112.3W 29.2N 112.5W 39.5N 108.8W
SHIP 40KTS 39KTS 29KTS 23KTS
DSHP 40KTS 39KTS 30KTS 25KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.4N LONCUR = 104.5W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 13.9N LONM12 = 103.1W DIRM12 = 287DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 13.4N LONM24 = 101.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

1stVIS

[KWT]

Got some shear on it coming from the NE, still it has got decent convection flaring up to the SW of the center of circulation and if the shear eases up for a 24hr period then it does have a fair shout at doing something.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

16/1145 UTC 14.5N 104.5W T1.0/1.0 92E -- East Pacific

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

Code Red

888
ABPZ20 KNHC 161736
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE JUN 16 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAVE BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
IS POSSIBLE AND IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH

[HURAKAN]

126
WHXX04 KWBC 161723
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 92E

INITIAL TIME 12Z JUN 16

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 14.3 104.8 290./ 7.0
6 14.6 105.7 290./ 9.4
12 15.2 107.2 292./15.3
18 15.2 108.3 266./11.6
24 15.4 109.3 284./ 9.2
30 15.4 109.8 267./ 5.2
36 15.8 110.3 314./ 6.1
42 15.9 110.7 288./ 3.8
48 16.0 110.9 293./ 3.2
54 16.4 111.1 338./ 4.3
60 16.8 111.2 350./ 4.0
66 17.0 111.0 45./ 1.9
72 17.2 111.0 2./ 2.5
78 17.4 110.7 62./ 4.1
84 17.6 110.4 56./ 2.9
90 17.7 110.1 78./ 3.3
96 17.9 109.6 59./ 4.8
102 17.9 109.4 95./ 2.4
108 17.8 109.2 116./ 2.4
114 17.6 108.6 106./ 5.3
120 17.4 108.1 120./ 5.7
126 16.9 107.7 139./ 6.5

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

12z CMC has landfall in the Mexican coast as a bonifide tropical storm.

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

SSD dvorak latest T numbers:

16/1745 UTC 14.0N 105.7W T1.5/1.5 92E -- East Pacific

[KWT]

Circulation is moving inline with the convection, looks like this wil indeed be the first system of the EPAC season, I suspect we will have a TD in the next 12-24hrs.

[cycloneye]

18 UTC Best Track

EP, 92, 2009061618, , BEST, 0, 142N, 1053W, 25, 1008, DB

[BigA]

Satellite loops in the last couple of hours show bubbling convection over the center (though it is still somewhat exposed) and an increase in showers and thunderstorms to the east of the main convection. Technically, it probably already is a tropical depression, but there is no need to be over hasty in classifying it, as the NHC might as well wait to see if the convection doesn't collapse this evening/tonight. I expect classification as a depression within 24 hours.

[cycloneye]

Is not a totally well organized system as the center is not fully covered yet by the convection.It appears that some NE shear component is causing the circulation to not be totally covered.Lets see if it goes fully under the convection later on.