WPAC: TD NANGKA (0904/04W; PAGASA: FERIA)

[senorpepr]

WTPQ20 RJTD 260600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0904 NANGKA (0904)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 260600UTC 20.8N 115.7E FAIR
MOVE NNW 15KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM SOUTH 100NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 270600UTC 23.7N 115.7E 85NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

[HURAKAN]

Completely exposed.

[senorpepr]

That's great news as Nangka is approaching landfall.




From HKO...
STRONG WIND SIGNAL NO. 3

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin

Here is the latest Tropical Cyclone Bulletin issued by the
Hong Kong Observatory.

The Strong Wind Signal, No. 3 is in force.

This means that winds with mean speeds of 41 to 62
kilometres per hour are expected.

At 7 p.m., Tropical Storm Nangka was estimated to be about
120 kilometres east-southeast of Hong Kong (near 21.8
degrees north 115.2 degrees east) and is forecast to move
north or north-northwest at about 25 kilometres per hour
towards the coast of eastern Guangdong.

Nangka showed signs of slight weakening in the late
afternoon. According to the present track, Nangka will be
closest to Hong Kong around midnight. Local winds are
expected to strengthen gradually. Heavy rain will start to
affect Hong Kong overnight.
In the past hour, the maximum sustained winds recorded at
Waglan Island were 57 kilometres per hour, with gusts
reaching 66 kilometres per hour.

(Precautionary Announcements with No. 3 Signal)

1. You are advised not to delay in taking all precautions
to protect your home or property. Make sure now that all
loose objects are secure. Porch furniture, flower pots and
other objects likely to be blown away should be taken
indoors. Check again and make sure all windows and doors
can be securely locked.

2. Since seas are rough and there are swells , you are
advised to stay away from the shoreline and not to engage
in water sports.

3. People should avoid walking or working in areas exposed
to gales and squalls. Drivers using highways and flyovers
should be alert to violent gusts.

4. Fishing vessels not yet in typhoon shelters should seek
shelter without delay. Check again that all deck fittings
are firmly fastened. If available, heavy anchors should be
prepared and used in addition to regular anchors.

5. Listen to your radio, watch your TV or browse the Hong
Kong Observatory's web site for information on the tropical
cyclone.

DISPATCHED BY HONG KONG OBSERVATORY AT 18:47 HKT ON 26.06.2009





I'll try to get updates posted here and to both Storm2k's and my Twitter accounts as Nangka makes landfall.

http://www.twitter.com/storm2k_org
http://www.twitter.com/senorpepr

[HURAKAN]

Almost there.

[senorpepr]

Flooding there should "hopefully" be limited thanks to the lack of convection. Radar seems to concur...

[senorpepr]

We're running out of daylight in SE China, so we're looking at IR satellite. Without hi-res visible satellite, the HKO radar look is the best tool at tracking the naked center. It should be on land in a few hours...

[senorpepr]

[senorpepr]

12Z update from HKO...

STRONG WIND SIGNAL NO. 3

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin

Here is the latest Tropical Cyclone Bulletin issued by the
Hong Kong Observatory.

The Strong Wind Signal, No. 3 is in force.

This means that winds with mean speeds of 41 to 62
kilometres per hour are expected.

At 8 p.m., Tropical Storm Nangka was estimated to be about
90 kilometres east-southeast of Hong Kong Observatory (near
22.0 degrees north 115.0 degrees east) and is forecast to
move north or north-northwest at about 25 kilometres per
hour towards the coast of eastern Guangdong.

[HURAKAN]

Inland.

[cycloneye]

JTWC Downgraded to Tropical Depression

PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (NANGKA) WARNING NR 017
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 04W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 22.2N 114.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 22.2N 114.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 24.5N 114.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 25.7N 115.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 22.8N 114.8E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 04W (NANGKA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 45 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, CHINA HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TD 04W HAS SLOWLY WEAKENED OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN AN AREA OF HIGH VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER LACKS DEEP CONVECTION
AND IS FULLY EXPOSED IN ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 262100Z, 270300Z AND 270900Z.

[wyq614]

CMA declared its landfall:

At 1450 UTC in Huilai County, Guangdong Province.

[Typhoon Hunter]

There has been a slight burst of convection just after landfall and rainbands are now affecting Hong Kong bringing thunderstorms etc. Wind is not an issue which is no surprise. The high shear yesterday really helped to keep Nangka in check and consequently southern China can sigh a breath of relief.

[cycloneye]

Last warning by JWTC

WTPN32 PGTW 262100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (NANGKA) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z --- NEAR 22.9N 114.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 22.9N 114.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 24.5N 113.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
262100Z POSITION NEAR 23.3N 114.2E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 04W (NANGKA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 40 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF HONG KONG, CHINA HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TD 04W HAS MADE LANDFALL EAST OF HONG
KONG AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK INLAND, WITH FURTHER WEAKENING OVER
LAND. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//