WPAC: TD NANGKA (0904/04W; PAGASA: FERIA)

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Cookie
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 477
Age: 36
Joined: Sun Dec 14, 2008 11:13 am
Location: Isle Of lewis scotland

Re: Re:

#81 Postby Cookie » Wed Jun 24, 2009 12:32 pm

RL3AO wrote:
Cookie wrote:why dose this system have 2 names?


JMA (Japan) names systems for the entire West Pacific. They are the official office for the basin. They named it Nangka.

PAGASA (Philippines) names systems that are only around the Philippines. They are unofficial. They named it Feria.


thanks
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 139051
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: WPAC: TS NANGKA (0904/04W; PAGASA: FERIA)

#82 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 24, 2009 4:59 pm

WTPN32 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (NANGKA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 14.4N 119.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4N 119.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 16.2N 118.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 18.2N 118.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 20.2N 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 22.2N 118.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 26.2N 121.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 31.5N 126.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 37.7N 132.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 14.9N 119.1E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (NANGKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM SOUTH
OF KAOHSIUNG, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS AND
HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES AND CIMSS.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS LOCATED TO
THE NORTH, WHICH WILL KEEP TS 04W ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND
ALSO PROVIDE FOR GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TS 04W WILL GRADUALLY
TURN MORE NORTHWARD AFTER TAU 24 TOWARDS THE TAIWAN STRAIT. AFTER
TAU 48, TS 04W WILL RECURVE AND SLOWLY WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO A REGION OF STRONGER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN. EXTENDED MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS TS 04W
ALL THE WAY INTO THE SEA OF JAPAN, BUT MAY DISSIPATE BEFORE THEN.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 250300Z, 250900Z, 251500Z AND 252100Z.//
NNNN

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 139051
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: WPAC: TS NANGKA (0904/04W; PAGASA: FERIA)

#83 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 24, 2009 9:37 pm

WTPN32 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (NANGKA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 15.1N 118.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1N 118.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 17.4N 118.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 19.5N 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 21.4N 117.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 22.9N 118.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 26.1N 121.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 30.7N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 15.7N 118.6E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (NANGKA), LOCATED 450 NM SOUTH OF KAOHSIUNG,
TAIWAN HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT NINE KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 14 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z, 251500Z, 252100Z AND 260300Z.//
NNNN

0 likes   

User avatar
senorpepr
Military Met/Moderator
Military Met/Moderator
Posts: 12542
Age: 41
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
Location: Mackenbach, Germany
Contact:

Re: WPAC: TS NANGKA (0904/04W; PAGASA: FERIA)

#84 Postby senorpepr » Thu Jun 25, 2009 1:50 am

72 hr rainfall totals for the Philippines...

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
senorpepr
Military Met/Moderator
Military Met/Moderator
Posts: 12542
Age: 41
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
Location: Mackenbach, Germany
Contact:

#85 Postby senorpepr » Thu Jun 25, 2009 1:52 am

WTPQ20 RJTD 250600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0904 NANGKA (0904)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250600UTC 15.9N 118.0E FAIR
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 150NM SOUTH 120NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 260600UTC 19.8N 115.8E 75NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 270600UTC 23.4N 116.1E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 280600UTC 26.7N 119.3E 250NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#86 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jun 25, 2009 4:01 am

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 139051
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: WPAC: TS NANGKA (0904/04W; PAGASA: FERIA)

#87 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 25, 2009 9:42 am

WTPN32 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (NANGKA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 17.5N 117.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5N 117.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 19.6N 116.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 21.6N 116.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 23.3N 116.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 25.2N 116.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 28.9N 121.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 18.0N 117.5E.
TROPICAL STORM 04W (NANGKA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM NORTHWEST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES HAD TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z
IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z, 260300Z, 260900Z AND 261500Z.//
NNNN

0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#88 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jun 25, 2009 11:05 am

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#89 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jun 25, 2009 3:32 pm

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#90 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jun 25, 2009 3:33 pm

ZCZC 018
WTPQ20 RJTD 251800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0904 NANGKA (0904)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 251800UTC 18.4N 116.8E FAIR
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 100NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 261800UTC 22.2N 115.8E 70NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 271800UTC 25.0N 116.3E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
NNNN
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 139051
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: WPAC: TS NANGKA (0904/04W; PAGASA: FERIA)

#91 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 25, 2009 3:54 pm

WTPN32 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (NANGKA) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z --- NEAR 18.6N 116.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.6N 116.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 20.9N 116.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 23.2N 116.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 25.2N 116.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 26.7N 118.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 19.2N 116.6E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (NANGKA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. TS 04W HAS WEAKENED TO 40 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS AS EVIDENCED BY A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) FROM ABOUT 30 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE
INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM
43 TO 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES AND CIMSS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT AN ANTICYCLONE LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST AND A
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST
OF TS 04W ARE CREATING THE VWS OVER THE LLCC. THIS VWS WILL CONTINUE
TO INHIBIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, DESPITE THE SYSTEM LOCATION OVER
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES(GT 50 MM). THE SYSTEM WILL CONTIUE TO
TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TAU 24, WHERE IT WILL MAKE LANDFALL
IN MAINLAND CHINA WELL EAST OF HONG KONG. THEREAFTER, TS 04W WILL
BEGIN TO DISSIPATE THROUGH LAND INTERACTION, AND COMPLETE
DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS
13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z, 260900Z, 261500Z AND 262100Z.//
NNNN

0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#92 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jun 25, 2009 4:21 pm

Image

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
senorpepr
Military Met/Moderator
Military Met/Moderator
Posts: 12542
Age: 41
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
Location: Mackenbach, Germany
Contact:

#93 Postby senorpepr » Thu Jun 25, 2009 7:35 pm

Image

Not much cloud cover remains, although still some convection near the center.
0 likes   

User avatar
senorpepr
Military Met/Moderator
Military Met/Moderator
Posts: 12542
Age: 41
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
Location: Mackenbach, Germany
Contact:

#94 Postby senorpepr » Thu Jun 25, 2009 8:56 pm

WTPN32 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (NANGKA) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 19.2N 116.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2N 116.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 20.7N 115.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 22.3N 115.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 23.6N 115.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 24.7N 116.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 19.6N 116.1E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (NANGKA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY DESPITE
ENDURING HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SIGNI-
FICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260900Z,
261500Z, 262100Z AND 270300Z.//
NNNN

0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#95 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jun 25, 2009 9:00 pm

ZCZC 098
WTPQ20 RJTD 260000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0904 NANGKA (0904)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 260000UTC 19.3N 116.2E FAIR
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 100NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 270000UTC 23.2N 115.1E 70NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
NNNN


Image
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#96 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jun 25, 2009 9:10 pm

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 139051
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: WPAC: TS NANGKA (0904/04W; PAGASA: FERIA)

#97 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 25, 2009 9:42 pm

WTPN32 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (NANGKA) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 19.2N 116.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2N 116.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 20.7N 115.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 22.3N 115.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 23.6N 115.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 24.7N 116.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 19.6N 116.1E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (NANGKA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY DESPITE
ENDURING HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SIGNI-
FICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260900Z,
261500Z, 262100Z AND 270300Z.//
NNNN

0 likes   

Typhoon Hunter
WesternPacificWeather.com
WesternPacificWeather.com
Posts: 1215
Age: 40
Joined: Wed Oct 11, 2006 11:37 am
Location: Hong Kong
Contact:

Re: WPAC: TS NANGKA (0904/04W; PAGASA: FERIA)

#98 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Thu Jun 25, 2009 10:19 pm

I'm in Hong Kong so will update here if anything interesting happens. HKO issued standby signal 1 this moring at 7.15am local time.
0 likes   

User avatar
senorpepr
Military Met/Moderator
Military Met/Moderator
Posts: 12542
Age: 41
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
Location: Mackenbach, Germany
Contact:

#99 Postby senorpepr » Fri Jun 26, 2009 12:34 am

WTPQ20 RJTD 260300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0904 NANGKA (0904)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 260300UTC 19.9N 116.0E FAIR
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM SOUTH 100NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 270300UTC 23.5N 115.0E 70NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
0 likes   

beaufort12
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 70
Joined: Thu Sep 02, 2004 9:18 am
Location: Lorton VA

Re: WPAC: TS NANGKA (0904/04W; PAGASA: FERIA)

#100 Postby beaufort12 » Fri Jun 26, 2009 1:49 am

keeping an eye on Nangka. Seems like the recurvature isn't panning out as earlier forecast, or at least to the extent that was forecast. looks like maybe there's some Nangka-induced rain coming our way? currently there's a pretty stiff breeze that is helping to counter the high heat and humidity of the past few days.
0 likes   


Return to “2009”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 51 guests